Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kshv 201800 aaa 
afdshv

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019



Aviation...

Clouds are spreading eastward across the region today, but VFR
conditions still prevail because cloud bases generally remain at
or above 10kt. Expect ceilings to gradually lower from west to
east later tonight as moisture increases from the south and
chances of rain gradually start to ramp up (but doing so first in
txk). No widespread IFR conditions are anticipate before midday
tomorrow, but most locations, aside from perhaps mlu, should begin
a period of MVFR starting between 3 am and 8 am tomorrow morning
and lasting until at least midday. Some embedded thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out late tonight through tomorrow morning, but
mainly at txk/tyr/eld. Otherwise, anticipate southeast to south
surface winds running from 5 to 15 mph and occasionally gusting to
25 mph (especially around tyr/ggg). /50/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1026 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

Update...

Upper level trough and jet stream energy starting to come into the
Southern Plains from out of the Desert Southwest today will
continue to spread mid to high level clouds across the four state
region. Enough sun will filter through these clouds to warm
temperatures well into the 70s in most locations by the afternoon
and the previously-forecasted high temperatures were kept intact
with only slight tweaks. Patchy fog this morning has quickly
dissipated as a strengthening west to east low level pressure
gradient is inducing boundary layer mixing through increasing south
to southeast winds. These winds will become gusty at times later
today, especially in East Texas where a lake Wind Advisory is in
effect now through 6 PM. It is possible with the afternoon package
we may have to extend the time of the lake Wind Advisory for those
areas further into tonight. Otherwise, despite the increasing
southerly low level flow, the input of sufficient moisture for
precipitation production will generally hold off until this
evening (and even then mainly confined to west of the arklatex and
east texas). Later tonight the increase of rain and embedded
thunderstorm chances looks on track for at least the northwest
half of zones as a cold front slowly approaches from the
northwest. /50/

Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

Short term.../today through Thursday/

Low-level moisture to increase this morning as southerly flow
becomes better established areawide. Patchy dense fog can be
expected across mainly deep East Texas and northwest Louisiana
through daybreak. Fog to quickly dissipate by mid-morning as
southerly winds mix down to the surface. Wind speeds to increase
to 15 to 20 mph by late morning across East Texas,continuing
through sunset. A lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today and
may need to be extended through the evening hours. Temperatures
this afternoon to climb into the mid 70s, falling into the upper
50s to lower 60s overnight.

Rain chances to increase overnight mainly across the I-30 corridor
as a cold front drifts southeast across these areas. Frontal
boundary to linger across northeast Texas and central Arkansas
through Thursday maintaining widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms throughout the day. Otherwise, temperatures on
Thursday to average in the low to mid 70s. /05/

Long term.../Thursday night through Wednesday/

A cold front Thursday night in the srn plains will reach se OK
before daybreak Friday. Convection that had been occurring north of
I-30 ahead of this front will begin to spread across cwa. Some tstms
expected along front with favorable low lvl wind shear to support
strong wind gusts in storms before instability becomes increasingly
elevated durg the day Friday. Widespread showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms will continue just behind the front before it
exits the region on Friday night with final showers just exiting
north central la by daybreak Sat mrng. Cold air behind this front
will be short lived with best radiation cooling Sat night as lows
dip into the 30s for much of the region. Aside from that, mostly
sunny skies durg the wknd.

By early next week, a deep upper level trough will pump Pacific
moisture from baja CA, before movg into Central Plains and
deepening. At the sfc, Lee cyclogenesis will begin to intensify
east of The Rockies with a cold front diving south from plains as
showers and thunderstorms begin to increase late Monday night into
Tuesday. Steep pressure falls could indicate possibility of stg
convection with this faster movg system./07/.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 76 61 73 62 / 0 30 50 50
mlu 75 54 74 61 / 0 0 20 40
deq 73 59 70 55 / 0 60 90 80
txk 74 60 71 59 / 0 50 80 70
eld 73 56 73 59 / 0 30 50 60
tyr 76 64 73 58 / 0 40 80 60
ggg 75 62 73 60 / 0 40 70 50
lfk 78 63 76 63 / 0 20 40 40

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz096-
108>110-124-125-136-137-149-150.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations