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fxus64 kshv 181108 
afdshv

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
608 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Aviation...

All terminals have been VFR except for ktxk which just fell into
IFR cig and vsby category as of 18/11z, but will diminish by
13-14z. Elsewhere, thick upper lvl cloud cover across se half of
cwa. As upper low near coast moves east, these clouds will
eventually move out of the region with mostly VFR skc thru 19/12z
fcst cycle. East-se winds around 5 kts, but closer to 10 kts over NE
Texas this aftn. Some elevated convection near se OK possible btwn
19/09-12z, but should remain well north of areal terminals,
including ktxk./07/.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

Short term.../today through Saturday/

Upper low slowly movg east along Gulf Coast spilling a thick layer
of upper and some mid lvl clouds nwd across much of the area, will
cross the MS river Delta this aftn and temps will rise a few
additional degrees where skies clear off, although aftn highs
should rise over 70 degrees areawide. Base of upper trough to the
north will brush far northern sections of the region late tonight
with a slgt chance of elevated convection. Will leave in thunder,
although instability quite marginal. A lgt wind likely induced
further to the south with passage of this trough as well as some
variable cloud cover. Areas with better radiation cooling south of
I-20 and thus expect overnight lows to range thru 50s areawide.
Cumulus field developing quickly on Saturday with bases forming
under a sharp mid lvl inversion, although dry air aloft to limit
extent of vertical lift while occurrence of a SW wind will allow
for additional warming with highs rising into the middle 80s over
NE Texas and upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere./07/.

Long term.../Saturday night through Thursday night/

Sly sfc flow to deepen Saturday night into Sunday, as a deep upper
trof to move into the plains. Stalled boundary across the nrn Gulf
to quickly move back nwd and bring increasing chances for sct
convection by Sunday aftn/evening. Strong impulse rounding the base
of the trof and a developing cold front will bring widespread
thunderstorms, perhaps severe, during the overnight hours Sunday
night into Monday. Progressive upper flow pattern to quickly move
the convection ewd with the trof, as cold sfc high pressure settles
in under nwly flow aloft.

Below normal temperatures fcst in the wake of the front Tuesday and
Wednesday, as the upper flow pattern transitions to near-zonal and
sfc high pressure lingers. However, upper flow to quickly become
swly with corresponding sly return flow at the sfc Thursday, as
another trof approaches. Some timing issues exist in the Med range
models, but rain chances look to make a return sometime in the
Thursday and beyond timeframe. /12/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 75 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
mlu 74 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
deq 73 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
txk 72 53 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
eld 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
tyr 76 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
ggg 75 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
lfk 77 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.

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