Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksto 202122
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
222 PM PDT sun Oct 20 2019
dry through the extended period. Warmer than normal for the
remainder of this week. Breezy and dry conditions at times
especially Wednesday and Thursday when elevated fire weather
concerns are expected. &&
High pressure will be building over the state tonight into
Tuesday. Winds on Monday will increases in the valley to between
10 and 20 mph with the stronger winds on the west side of the
valley. This will increase fire weather concerns for the valley.
Light north to east winds will develop Monday night along the
coastal range and in the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures will warm to
around 10 degrees above normal for Monday. Thermal belt areas
Monday night will only cool into the mid 50s to low 60s.
Lighter northerly winds are expected on Tuesday with continued
warming by a couple of degrees. A weak wave will pass to the
northeast and east of California Tuesday night into the Great
Basin. The result of this will be to increase the winds on
Wednesday first within the valley during the day and then over
the mountains at night. There does not look to be a lot of upper
level support so no wind advisories would be expected. However the
combination of the breezy to locally windy dry winds with low
relative humidities will elevate fire weather concerns once again.
Temperatures look to peak Tuesday and Wednesday for most of the
interior warming between 85 and 90 for the valley to the upper
60s to mid 70s for the mountains.
Extended discussion (thursday through sunday)...
A trough located in the Great Basin early Thursday will continue
to move east towards the southern Great Plains through the day. An
increased pressure gradient across much of northern California
will continue Thursday bringing breezy north to east winds to much
of the valley and mountain areas. With extremely dry conditions
this day into Friday, critical fire weather conditions are
possible during this time. High pressure moves over California
Friday, relaxing the pressure gradient bringing lighter winds back
to the area. Models have come into better agreement for another
trough moving into the region from Canada late next weekend which
will drop temperatures and potentially lead to more gusty, north
winds. There is a potential for additional fire weather concerns
with this weekend system.
VFR conditions the next 24 hours at taf sites. Sustained winds
generally below 12 knots.