Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksto 152201
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
201 PM PST sun Dec 15 2019
dry weather will continue with cold morning lows through Tuesday.
A weak system moves through mid-week with additional
precipitation chances into next weekend.
high pressure building over the region will persist into Tuesday
when another system begins to approach the coast. Some patches of
fog each morning may occur into Tuesday with dry conditions.
Morning lows will be in the 30s for the valley with some local
areas possibly down to around 30 degrees. Mountain valleys will
likely lower into the teens the next couple of nights.
The next system looks to be slowing a bit and staying
offshore longer before moving into the central coast on Wednesday.
The ensemble GFS model indicates some chances for precipitation
mainly Wednesday but amounts have been reduced from the already
weak system that the models where projecting.
Extended discussion (thursday through sunday)...
The weak low moves to the east Wednesday night and moisture
continues to spread across the far north and into the southern
Cascades with some showers possible for the north end of the
valley and northern mountains through Thursday.
A much stronger storm system will be building off the Pacific
northwest coast on Friday and as it does weak ridging builds ahead
for the system. This may end up keeping the interior dry for
Friday. Currently that system is forecast to move inland Saturday
and Saturday night. Ensemble models indicates weak amounts of
precipitation while the deterministic GFS is much stronger and
slightly more direct with impacting northern California. The
ensemble GFS is digging the system further west off the coast.
Needless to say the extended forecast is uncertain at this time.
Overall we will see VFR conditions at the taf sites the next 24
hours. Patchy fog is possible kmyv south from 12-18z. MVFR/IFR
possible in any fog. Winds remain under 10 knots.