Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksto 131049
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
349 am PDT sun Oct 13 2019
quiet weather is expected into early next week. Near average
temperatures, then cooler than normal temperatures mid to late
week. A weather system could bring a chance of showers late week
into next weekend.
a short wave trough will be pushing into norcal today. No rain is
expected with this trough but it will bring some cloud cover to
the area. The trough pushes to the east on Monday and we will see
a ridge build in. This will bring quiet weather for the start of
the week. A deeper trough will push south mid-week and this will
bring some shower chances to the area starting Wednesday night.
The ec ensemble is further south with this system and would give
US a better chance for rain while the GFS ensemble is more north
giving US lesser chances for rain. Both ensembles show a cold
front moving over the area Wednesday night and that would be the
greatest time frame to see activity.
We are seeing chilly temperatures once again this morning across
the area but they are staying a bit warmer to the north where
there is some cloud cover. Overnight lows tonight look to be a bit
cooler then what we saw this morning continuing to run below
normal. Daytime highs will be right around average for this time
extended discussion (thursday through sunday)...
A weak shortwave trough passes to the east of the state on
Thursday leaving flat high pressure and zonal flow over norcal for
most of the extended period. More shortwave troughs moving through
this zonal flow will bring the threat of showers to the northern
mountains on occasion but timing and strength of these systems
will be very difficult so confidence in precipitation chances
will be fairly low. Most of the forecast area will remain under
dry and cool conditions with daytime highs remaining well below
normal going into the weekend. Upper ridging is forecast to start
rebuilding over the West Coast early next week for a start of a
warming trend going into early next week.
VFR conditions taf sites next 24 hours. Winds generally below 12