Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 200700
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
200 am EST Wed Nov 20 2019
Near term [through today]...
Surface high pressure over the northern Gulf slides eastward over
our area today. This will produce mostly sunny skies and light
winds, with high temperatures around 70.
Short term [tonight through friday]...
A dry short term is expected as surface high pressure slides from
the southern Appalachians to off the Atlantic coast Friday. Winds
will veer from the northwest to southeast as the high moves
further east. Although the mid levels will be fairly zonal, a dry
low/mid layer and subsidence will prevent any rainfall. An
upstream cold front will make it into the mid south late in the
short term but for this period, just an increase in mid/high
clouds are expected. High temperatures will moderate to above
normal conditions Friday on southeasterly flow.
Long term [friday night through wednesday]...
The cold front will sweep through and bring a good chance for
rainfall Saturday and Saturday night and move east of the region
Sunday. Surface high pressure will build across the southeast into
the beginning of the work week with nearly zonal flow aloft.
Temperatures will be back near to slightly below normal on cool
and dry northwesterly winds. Towards Wednesday, another
disturbance appears to bring a chance for rainfall and a frontal
passage ahead of Thanksgiving day.
[through 06z thursday]
Mostly clear skies and light winds will make for VFR conditions for
all terminals this taf cycle.
Favorable marine conditions will exist today through Friday night
with high pressure dominating. A cold front will approach this
weekend with winds and seas increasing as a result. Periods of
cautionary conditions will be possible Saturday into early Sunday.
There are no fire weather concerns for this forecast period.
Rainfall amounts with this weekend's front are forecast to be less
than an inch on average. Thus, flooding is not a concern within
the upcoming week.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 70 44 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 71 49 71 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 69 43 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 68 44 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 67 43 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 70 45 72 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 69 51 69 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 0