Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 190713
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
313 am EDT Sat Oct 19 2019
tropical storm Nestor continues to lift rain across the area early
this morning. A couple of tornadoes lifted across SW Pinellas and
eastern Hillsborough/western Polk late last night in the vicinity
of the warm front. A much larger line of convection is pushing
onshore and a Tornado Watch is also in effect through 16z across
the entire area. Nestor will continue to lift NE through the day
and become Post/extra-tropical Saturday night/Sunday as drier
conditions move into the area and high pressure builds locally.
High pressure continues across the area then into Tuesday as
moisture returns, with a cold front pushing into the area Tuesday
night and stalling. The front washes out as high pressure slides
east across the deep south, and ridging will remain in place
across the area through the end of the period.
Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s through the
period, with lows generally in the 60s across the Nature Coast
and in the 70s across central and southern zones.
widespread and prevailing MVFR/local IFR conditions will
impact the terminals through 00z tonight as bands of rain
and embedded thunderstorms and rain associated with tropical storm Nestor
move onshore from the Gulf through the period. Southeast to
south winds around 10 knots will increase to 15 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 35 knots possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms and rain
between 07-10z. Winds will become southwest and remain elevated
in the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts after 19z.
Southwest winds will diminish to around 10 knots after 02z
tropical storm conditions possible across the northern waters and
Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere through tonight. Nestor
lifts out to the NE across the Florida Panhandle, with high pressure
building over the waters into Tuesday. A cold front then washes
out across the waters Tuesday night, with high pressure returning
Wednesday. No other headlines expected after the effects from
higher dispersions today with Nestor just to the north, but plenty
of rain today and moisture for the next several days, so no
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 85 75 87 73 / 90 40 10 10
fmy 84 75 87 75 / 70 60 40 10
gif 84 72 88 71 / 90 40 10 10
srq 86 75 88 74 / 90 50 20 10
bkv 85 69 87 68 / 90 30 10 10
spg 84 77 86 75 / 90 40 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-
High surf advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for coastal Charlotte-
coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
Coastal flood advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for coastal
Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for coastal Citrus-
coastal Hernando-inland Citrus-inland Levy.
Tropical Storm Warning for coastal Levy.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters from
Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm.
Tropical Storm Warning for coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.