Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 120715 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
215 am EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Synopsis...

The remnants of the front stretches across central Florida with
weak short waves flowing above. The result will be a cloudy day
and some showers. The showers will be mainly inland today,
tomorrow the focus will be closer to the coast.

By the weekend another front moves through and while this front
will also be weak and will dissipate somewhere over the state.
With this front however the deep layer trough will flatten out
and the flow become zonal. The result will be a fantastic weekend
with seasonal temperatures and drier conditions.

Enjoy it while you can because by midweek a weak deep layer
trough digs into the Gulf and with it returning moisture. In fact
I would not be surprised to see another sea fog situation set up
mid next week as low 70s dewpoints advect over ocean temperatures
around 70 degrees give or take a couple degrees.



&&

Aviation...

The frontal boundary or what is left of it stretches across the
state from about the Bay area to the cape. This will be the focus
of the low clouds overnight and tomorrow. The doesn't mean ft.
Myers area airports will not see MVFR ceilings, just there will be
more breaks there. I introduced a tempo group with the ceilings
but may need to amend that as the morning progresses.

&&

Marine...

Winds will decrease as the day progresses. I will let the Small Craft Advisory
expire this morning and replace it with a scec into the evening.
There are no other marine issues through the forecast period.

&&

Fire weather...

Expect light winds, overcast skies, increasing low level moisture
and a few showers especially eastern Polk and Highlands counties
today and the Nature Coast on Friday. Expect drier air over the
area Sunday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 78 67 75 66 / 10 10 30 40
fmy 81 68 79 68 / 30 10 20 20
gif 76 66 77 65 / 30 30 30 30
srq 80 67 76 67 / 10 10 20 40
bkv 76 64 75 63 / 10 30 30 40
spg 77 67 74 67 / 10 10 30 40

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for coastal
waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out
20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations