Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 231901 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
301 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

mid/upper ridging across the peninsula remains the main weather
influence aloft although broad mid/upper troughing over much of the
interior Continental U.S. Has shunted it a bit south and east compared to
previous days. High pressure has built in behind a surface frontal
boundary positioned across the south/Central Peninsula providing
areas to its north with cooler/drier conditions over the past 12-24

Wpc and surface obs analysis showed southernmost progression of
the front reaching just south of the forecast area earlier this
morning before beginning to retreat north a bit after becoming
stationary by late morning/early afternoon. Northerly flow behind
the front has become northeast this afternoon as the boundary
weakens and lifts north, and will continue gradually shifting to
east/southeast by late Thursday/early Friday. This will allow
moisture advection back into the area, and places that experienced
dewpoints as low as the 40s/50s today can expect a 10 to 20
degree rise into the 60s/70s by this time Thursday. Shower chances
today will remain confined to southernmost locations but will
gradually creep northward over the coming days to encompass most
of the forecast area by Friday.

This is expected to persist through the end of the work week and
into the weekend, with high pressure building at the surface and
aloft over the eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic allowing
east/southeast flow to set up continued moisture influx into the
region. A shortwave trough moving over the plains this weekend and
attendant surface cyclone developing over the lower Mississippi
Valley will force the ridging east a bit turning our flow more
southerly while an inverted trough moves south of the state
increasing moisture streaming over the state.

South/southeast flow continues into early next week as another low
pressure system takes shape in the Midwest and marches across the
central/eastern Continental U.S.. impacts regarding this system remain rather
uncertain due to orientation/strength differences among global
guidance suites regarding the shortwave energy, and will be refined
as the time period approaches. However, temperatures are likely to
remain above average through the period with appreciable rain
chances for most locations.


VFR expected through period although MVFR/IFR cigs possible again
overnight. East/northeast flow 8 to 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 7
knots after 04z, shifting/increasing to east/southeast 8 to 10
knots by end of period. Vcsh possible at kfmy and krsw through
05z. No other aviation impacts expected.


high pressure over the southeast continues east/northeast flow
across the area to the north of a stalled frontal boundary over the
south/Central Peninsula. Winds gradually shift to east/southeast by
Saturday and south/southeast on Sunday and continuing into next
week. Fairly brisk easterly flow likely during easterly surges
through Saturday, but remaining shy of criteria level. Increasing
potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms heading into
weekend and into next week.


Fire weather...
relative humidity expected to remain above critical levels
through the next several days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 69 88 73 87 / 0 20 0 50
fmy 73 89 75 89 / 20 20 0 40
gif 69 88 73 87 / 10 30 10 50
srq 71 90 74 89 / 0 10 0 40
bkv 66 87 70 88 / 0 30 10 50
spg 72 88 75 89 / 0 20 0 50


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations