Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 140601 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
201 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Aviation...
VFR expected thru period with variable to light easterly winds
generally 5 kts or less remainder of overnight, becoming southeast late
morning, increasing to SW 6 to 8 kts during afternoon and
gradually shifting to west/northwest late afternoon/early evening with sea
breeze, before decreasing to light/variable again overnight.
Patchy ground fog remains possible at klal thru 12z, otherwise no
aviation impacts expected.

&&

Prev discussion... /issued 800 PM EDT sun Oct 13 2019/

Update...
high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across
the Gulf will maintain pleasant dry conditions across the entire
forecast area the remainder of tonight through Tuesday with clear
to partly cloudy skies. Some shallow patchy fog may develop over
inland areas during the predawn hours Monday morning, but overall
coverage will remain too low to mention in the zones. Temperatures
tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s over inland areas to
around 70 to the lower 70s along the immediate coast, with highs
on Monday remaining above normal with readings again topping out
in the mid to upper 80s in most locations during the afternoon.
Current forecast has a good handle on all of this with no evening
update required at this time.

Aviation...
brief MVFR vsbys from shallow patchy ground fog may affect klal
between 09-12z, otherwise VFR is expected at all terminals during
the next 24 hours. Light/variable winds tonight will become east
to southeast at 4 to 6 knots after 14z becoming west to northwest
at 6 to 8 knots at the coastal terminals after 19z as the sea
breeze component develops.

Marine...
high pressure over the region will maintain east-southeast winds
around 10 knots near shore and 10 to 15 knots offshore with seas
of 2 to 3 feet the remainder of tonight through Monday with a weak
onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during
Monday afternoon. Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes
expected in the mid evening update around 9 PM.

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.

$$

Update/aviation/marine...57/McMichael

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 72 87 74 / 10 0 10 10
fmy 89 71 89 73 / 20 20 10 0
gif 89 69 89 71 / 0 0 10 0
srq 89 72 89 73 / 10 0 0 10
bkv 89 68 89 71 / 0 10 10 10
spg 89 73 88 76 / 0 0 10 10

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations