Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 141847 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
247 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

high pressure dominates our region today and tonight with light
steering flow. A few diurnally driven showers and possibly a
rumble of thunder is possible across SW Florida later this
afternoon/evening but these will quickly progress westward off the
coast around sunset. GFS time-series plots show mid/upper level
moistening before midnight and so expect cloudy skies overnight.
Otherwise, we will see benign weather in the short term with a
muggy and mild night.

By Tuesday, an approaching trough along with high pressure
sliding off to our southeast will result in a southerly shift of
low-level flow and better moisture trajectories. Increasing
dewpoints and overall atmospheric column moistening along with
convergence near the frontal boundary will lead to higher rain
chances as we head into Wednesday. Highest rain chances will be
across Nature Coast, gradually moving to southeast locations by
Thursday as high pressure builds back into our north. Latest
statistical model guidance agrees on this front bringing
relatively cooler (i.E. Near average) temperatures across the area
by Friday. Tampa International Airport has not fallen below 70
degrees yet and the record latest for this to occur is October
19th. It will be close on Friday...

As we approach the weekend, southerly flow on the eastern side
from a disturbance in the central Gulf will advect deep tropical
moisture northward. Isentropic upglide will occur along the warm
front and enhance rainfall across portions of the Gulf and
potentially into the peninsula. Rainfall coverage and cloud cover
(and therefore temperatures) will be highly dependent on the
position/strength of the aforementioned features and any upper-
level impulses that will provide enhancement.


VFR expected through the period with scattered diurnal cumulus this afternoon
and broken mid/upper level clouds possible overnight, especially
across northern terminals. Winds becoming east/southeast gradually shifting
to west/northwest late afternoon/early evening due to sea breeze


high pressure ridge axis stretches across the peninsula with
light steering flow leading to sea breeze onshore wind shifts in
the afternoon. Dry and benign weather will continue for the next
couple of days before rain chances return ahead of a cold front
expected to move through early Thursday. Southerly flow from a
disturbance in the central Gulf of Mexico will draw deep moisture
north bringing additional rainfall through the weekend.


Fire weather...
humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels with
light winds through the period with no major fire weather
concerns expected. Rainfall is likely especially across the Nature
Coast ahead of a cold front that will move through the region
early Thursday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 74 87 76 86 / 0 10 10 30
fmy 73 88 73 88 / 10 0 0 20
gif 71 88 73 88 / 0 10 0 20
srq 73 87 74 87 / 0 0 10 30
bkv 69 89 72 87 / 0 10 20 40
spg 76 86 77 86 / 0 10 10 30


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations