Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 181849
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
249 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019
tropical storm Nestor will be the main player for the next 48 hours.
Nestor is over the central Gulf of Mexico moving quickly northeast
toward the Florida Panhandle. It will likely make landfall early on
Saturday, then continue moving away through the rest of the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and
intensity today. So far they have remained mostly beyond 60 miles
from the coast, but as Nestor moves northeast, the convergence
boundary associated with a weak frontal boundary will lift
northeast, allowing these storms to move toward the coast. The main
impact will be overnight tonight into Saturday morning. The main
threat will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated
Coastal flooding/storm surge will be an issue tonight through
Saturday as winds turn more southerly, then southwesterly as Nestor
moves by. Expecting 1 to 3 feet in Tampa Bay, 2 to 4 feet from
Clearwater Beach to Chassahowitzka, and 3 to 5 feet north of
Large waves and gusty winds will also result in high surf and
dangerous rip currents through at least Saturday, and possibly into
Sunday as well. Even after the winds diminish, wave energy will
continue to propagate toward the coast on Sunday.
Flooding from rainfall is not expected to be a big issue due to the
fast movement of the storm. That said, if rainbands set up over one
particular area for any length of time, nuisance type flooding could
Sustained wind impacts from Nestor should be confined to Levy
County, and mainly near the coast. As mentioned above, stronger
storms could bring damaging wind gusts to just about anywhere in our
We return to some semblance of normalcy on Monday. A warm front will
lift north on Monday bringing some rain chances to the region, but
most of this will remain over the Gulf waters. A cold front will
move southward through Florida Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler and
drier weather moving in behind it. This will not be a strong cold
front given the time of year, and while it will feel better for a
day or two, temperatures will only drop off to about where they
should be this time of year.
Warmer and more humid air will make its way back into the region by
expect gradually deteriorating conditions this afternoon with MVFR
and potentially IFR ceilings by tonight. Winds will gradually shift
to southeast then south and increase to 15 knots or so with higher
gusts overnight into Saturday.
widespread showers and thunderstorms will move into the waters today
as tropical storm Nestor moves northeast toward the Florida
Panhandle. Hazardous boating conditions will persist through
Saturday night, followed by improving conditions during Sunday. Seas
will be slow to subside on Sunday as residual swells from Nestor
continue to move toward the coast.
A cold front will move into the waters on Tuesday and be south of
our waters by Wednesday morning. Northeast winds could reach 20
knots behind the front Wednesday.
no significant fire weather issues next several days. Dry air behind
the cold front on Wednesday is not expected to result in relative
humidities below 35 percent.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 74 84 74 85 / 80 80 30 30
fmy 76 85 76 88 / 50 70 30 30
gif 73 84 73 87 / 80 80 30 30
srq 75 86 75 87 / 80 80 40 40
bkv 70 85 71 86 / 80 80 30 20
spg 76 85 77 86 / 80 80 30 30
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-
High surf advisory from 1 am Saturday to 8 am EDT Sunday for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Coastal flood advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for coastal
Tropical Storm Warning for coastal Levy.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
and Pine Island Sound-coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
Englewood Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Englewood to
Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters from
Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm.
Tropical Storm Warning for coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.