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fxus62 ktbw 061129 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
629 am EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Aviation...
VFR will prevail. Light and variable winds this morning will
become west at 6 to 8 knots after 20z, with light and variable
winds returning again after 00z tonight.

&&

Prev discussion... /issued 234 am EST Fri Dec 6 2019/

Discussion...
pleasant late-Fall weather remains today with surface high
pressure in control. A cool morning will give way to a mild
afternoon with generally clear skies and calm winds, much like
yesterday.

As another trough axis propagates across the eastern half of the
country, a surface low pressure system and cold front will push
southward into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida. A weak
system to begin with, reinforcing high pressure and an
unfavorable upper-level pattern will cause the system to quickly
dissipate Sunday into Monday, with little effect on our weather
outside of a chance for some showers in northern locations.

Dry and pleasant weather will continue into mid-week with a
gradual warming before another system pushes into our area in the
Wednesday/Thursday time-frame. Substantial spread exists in how
the environment will set up for late next week, leading to
different solutions. For now, the forecast is being kept
conservative to reflect the potential uncertainty. Details should
become more clear as mid-week approaches. What does look more
certain is unsettled weather and then another potential cool-down
look to be in store.

Marine...
a low pressure system will push into the Gulf on Saturday,
potentially bringing a chance for some showers and slightly
higher winds and seas in northern offshore waters, but conditions
remain benign otherwise for boaters through the early portion of
next week.

Fire weather...
while a weak low pressure system will move into the Gulf tomorrow,
little effect will be had on our weather. Conditions remain above
critical thresholds through the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 73 54 74 60 / 0 0 10 10
fmy 76 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
gif 76 51 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
srq 74 55 77 59 / 0 0 10 10
bkv 74 48 74 56 / 0 0 20 10
spg 73 57 75 61 / 0 0 10 10

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

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