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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
545 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

The coldest air of the season settles in tonight with lows
flirting with daily records.

Synoptically-driven snow bands have departed the forecast area
with an area of north-to-S oriented hcr cumulus noted ahead of the h700-500
trough axis just entering north-central Kansas. Satellite
imagery, forecast soundings, and surface observations all show
that these bands are very shallow in nature and aside from the
cloud cover and periods of flurries, these bands will be of little
impact. These hcr bands should dissipate later this afternoon
with the loss of solar insolation. Strong northerly winds should
likewise lessen this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and
decoupling takes place. Rap forecast soundings do hint that the bl
may remain mixed well into the late evening hours in east-central
Kansas owing to differential caa, producing gusts up to 20 kts at
times.

A 1045 mb Canadian high pressure ridge stretching from western
Kansas to central North Dakota settles over the area tonight under
strong northwesterly flow on the backside of an h500 shortwave
trough. The center of the high passes south of the forecast area
with the ridge axis bifurcating the forecast area at sunrise. MOS-
based guidance solutions plummet lows into the single digits
above zero tonight with wind chill values around 0. Webcams show
the snowpack over the north being patchy in nature and it is
unknown how much this will contribute to lows tonight, therefore
did not deviate much from the going forecast. Return flow sets in
on the backside of the ridge on Tuesday afternoon under clear
skies, but temperatures will be slow to respond and highs will
still linger in the 30s.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Near seasonal temperatures return to the forecast for the end of the
week with little in the way of sensible weather.

An active northwest flow pattern will usher in the next shortwave
trough diving southeastward into the central U.S. Late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The latest 12z medium range solutions have shifted
southward with the mesoscale and kinematic forcing associated with
this complex, but given the poor moisture profiles have held off on
introducing pops with this forecast update. The trailing 1025 mb
surface high center is progged to stay north of the forecast area,
allowing for a downslope modified airmass to quickly work into the
region by Thursday afternoon. Longwave ridging translates eastward
over the central Continental U.S. For late in the week, keeping southerly
flow/warm air advection in place into the weekend. The next chance of precip
comes on Sunday as a high-amplitude trough digs south on the
backside of the ridge.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 543 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The gusty north winds
will slowly diminish through the late evening hours and into early
Tuesday morning.

&&

Climate...
issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Record lows for 11/12
----------------------

Topeka: 7 (1911)
concordia: 4 (1911)

&&

Top watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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