Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ktop 131048 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
448 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

..aviation update...

issued at 159 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

0730z water vapor imagery showed northwest flow over the Great
Plains. A shortwave was digging southeast over Wyoming. Elsewhere a
closed upper low was noted over the Gulf of California with upper
ridging along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure
stretched from the Texas Gulf Coast northeast into the Ohio River
valley. An area of low pressure over the northern High Plains was
gradually deepening.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 159 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

For today and tonight, dry air is expected to preclude chances
for precip as the shortwave tracks over the forecast area this
afternoon. There is pretty good consensus from the models seen in
the respective forecast soundings of limited moisture as the
better dynamics affect the area. There does appear to be some mid
level saturation in the soundings, but this occurs after a surface
front and the better dynamics have passed. So the main impact
from the shortwave is increased cloud cover. Highs today are
forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s for most areas. Forecast
soundings only mix the boundary layer to about 875mb and the
diminished insolation may make it difficult to get temperatures
any warmer. Lows tonight look to fall into the lower and middle
20s as weak cold air advection recommences.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 159 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

For Thursday through Tuesday, the forecast remains dry, although
there are a couple waves to keep an eye on. The models show
another upper trough moving across the Central Plains late
Saturday night and Sunday. Again moisture is an issue with this
system. But models also take the better dynamics to the southwest
of the forecast area as the strongest pv anomaly digs into West
Texas. The European model (ecmwf) is the only solution which develops quantitative precipitation forecast over part of
the forecast area while other guidance keeps the precip to the
southwest and east. For now followed the model blends which only
has about a 10 percent chance for measurable precip. There is also
a low amplitude wave progged to clip northeast Kansas within the
northwest flow on Monday. If models show some consistency in this
feature, a low pop may be added to the forecast in future updates.
Models show height rises into Tuesday with shortwave ridging
aloft anticipated by mid week. So dry weather along with a warming
trend is expected next week. The forecast has highs into the 60s
for Monday and Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 448 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

VFR conditions are forecast to persist today due to a lack of low
level moisture return. However models are showing some potential
for MVFR ceilings this evening behind the front. Confidence in the
lower ceilings is only about average with the rap forecast soundings
keeping ceilings at or above 3 kft. So will keep a VFR forecast for
now and monitor trends from later model runs. Will keep a mention
of low level wind shear until the usual time for the boundary layer to mix out.
Although surface winds already gusting suggests low level wind shear may be


Top watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations