Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ktop 232338 
afdtop

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Diffuse front will continue to move across remainder of the area
through early evening, with increase in clouds overnight. Small
precipitation chances develop after midnight, with best chances
southeast of I-35. Temperatures will be a bit challenging with
combo of weak cold air advection and clouds over the southern half
and some clearing in the northwest. Temperatures appear to remain
warm enough for precipitation to remain light rain. Considerably
cooler day on Thursday, with most of the area only approaching
50 for highs. Light rain may linger into the afternoon in far
southeast sections. -Howerton

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Early in the period, differences between slower/deeper longwave
trough in European model (ecmwf) and faster/weaker GFS will play into precipitation
chances on Thursday night and again late Friday night through
Saturday night. Latest European model (ecmwf) lags 700mb trough axis with potential
for light mid-level based precipitation on Saturday, while GFS
shunts precipitation east. Hedged by trimming north/northwest
extent a bit but held onto precipitation into Saturday night in
extreme eastern sections.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) similarly diverge for the next major longwave
trough rotating across western/central US on sun-Wed. Timing will
have a large impact on temperatures with much colder temperatures
arriving sometime during this period. At this point, stayed close
to the initialization/blend for temperatures given uncertainty of
the timing, but large errors in temperatures are probable during
this period. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

For the 00z tafs, keeping VFR conditions for now. It is possible
ceilings overnight may dip to MVFR categories through early morning
but for now low confidence precludes dropping the forecast to MVFR
categories. Any clouds should clear into later portions of the
morning hours.

&&

Top watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations