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fxus63 ktop 180535 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
1135 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 318 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Northwest flow will continue across the Central Plains in the
wake of the mid level trough that moved through eastern Kansas
today. This pattern continues into Tuesday before transitioning to
a southwest flow by Wednesday. A shortwave trough moving into the
Pacific northwest this afternoon will drop southeast and bring an
increase in cloud cover as well as a weak frontal boundary
through eastern Kansas on Monday. This system will move through
dry with little in the way of cooling behind the front as
temperatures warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 318 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Tuesday into Wednesday morning will see mild temperatures and the
return of deep moisture into eastern Kansas by Wednesday afternoon.
A cut off low will become an open wave and eject northeast into the
southern and Central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Instability, shear and steepening lapse rates will bring isolated
chances for thunder to the area. A cold front will move through
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the mid level wave moves
through. Some snow may mix with the rain early Thursday morning in
north central Kansas prior to the precipitation ending. Cut off low
moving into the central and Southern Plains at the end of the week
may bring a chance for some wintery precipitation to the area. There
is still enough model variability that an ensemble approach was used
for the forecast. Temperatures cool back off into the 40s for the
end of the week, then moderate back into the 50s next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1130 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR prevails at ktop/kfoe/kmhk with no major changes made from
previous forecast. Expect mid clouds to increase aft 08z from the
northwest as a weak wave passes through. The latest few runs from
the hrrr are hinting at light showers developing towards kmhk
around 18z, however ample dry air below 8 kft lead to not
mentioning any precip at this time.


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