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FXUS63 KTOP 221744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area with north
winds from the sfc through 850mb bringing colder and drier air
into northeast Kansas this morning. Meanwhile, an upper low will 
drift across the state today into tonight. As the upper low
approaches this morning forcing from a combo of dynamic lift and
850-600mb frontogenesis will act to saturate levels above 850mb
and eventually produce precip into northeast Kansas. Soundings
suggest a mix of snow and perhaps some sleet this morning across
central KS with a mix of rain and snow across the eastern half of
the area. There is some modest elevated instability noted across
central KS around midday so the atmospheric response to forcing
may yield several hours of snow with some light accumulation
possible mainly west of Topeka today. Forcing will weaken by late
afternoon and we will lose deeper moisture so any precip/snow 
should gradually taper off through the evening hours. All told it 
appears that anywhere from a trace to around one inch may fall 
today as mentioned mainly west of Topeka. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

As the low departs tonight we will see a mild westerly flow
develop which should help temperatures rebound to near seasonal
avgs on Saturday and above avg by Sunday with a dry downslope sfc
wind forecast. 

The next system that will impact Kansas will arrive Tuesday as a 
progressive system tracks across the region. The forecast track of
the system will need to be monitored but first impressions are 
that moisture may be late to arrive and the speed of the system 
could limit overall precip amounts. Precip type could be a mix of 
rain or snow across the north and central parts of the state so 
will need to watch this system in the coming days for any 
potential impacts on travel. The forecast then becomes less 
certain by Thanksgiving and beyond with chances for more precip 
looking possible but again the overall evolution of the longwave
pattern will have huge implications on the location of any surface
lows and subsequent precip chcs including any wintry precip chcs. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

A band of light snow is moving into the TAF sites, with moderate 
snow possible around the KMHK terminal. Could see IFR restrictions
for a brief period of time with MVFR for the rest of the period. 
By 22-23Z, precipitation should come to an end across the area. 
Highest confidence in IFR near KMHK with higher confidence in MVFR
at KTOP and KFOE. No other aviation hazards expected through the
TAF period.


Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ020-



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