Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 191037
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
537 am CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions are expected today with scattered showers
and possibly a thunderstorm impacting western Arkansas sites
this morning. The biggest concern will be the potential for
IFR fog to impact all area sites late in the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 254 am CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms currently moving into eastern
Oklahoma early this morning in association with upper wave in low
level jet axis. Precipitation chances after 12z will likely be
confined to far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas before most
of the activity shifts east by early afternoon. Behind cold front,
weak surface high pressure will build into the region tonight with
patchy fog developing late tonight through mid morning Sunday
before quickly dissipating.
Stronger and more vigorous upper low will dive southeast out of the
central rockies and into the Central Plains on Sunday. In response,
low level moisture will quickly surge north in far southeast Oklahoma.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the I-35 corridor
early Sunday evening across south-central Oklahoma with strong to
severe storms quickly spread into southeast Oklahoma by late evening
into the overnight hours. Most of this activity could be slightly
elevated, but regardless, very strong deep layer shear/moderate
instability will support a large hail/damaging wind threat into
the overnight hours as storms spread through southeast Oklahoma
into west-central Arkansas. If true warm sector lifts north of
the Red River into far southeast Oklahoma, an enhanced severe
weather threat would be possible, with at least a limited threat
for qlcs tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall from
training storms will be likely across southeast Oklahoma/west-
central Arkansas before storms sweep east of the region by Monday
morning with frontal passage.
Behind front, cool/dry conditions expected through the early to middle
part of the work week. Generally stayed close to nbm through this
time, except for low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night,
where the cooler mex guidance was used. Another strong upper level
trough is expected to move into the Central Plains Thursday into
Friday with increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms. Still
some model uncertainties regarding exact evolution of upper
features and timing of cold air, so stayed closer to nbm for the
remainder of the extended periods for now.