Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kvef 232156
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
256 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2019
Synopsis...a low pressure system clipping the region will start
increasing northerly winds this evening and peak on Thursday,
especially down the Colorado River valley. Another dry system and
cold front may pass over the weekend, resulting in another round
of gusty north winds.
Discussion...tonight through Wednesday.
Through the next week, periods of strong gusty winds will be the
primary impact, especially for those planning recreation on area
Current water vapor imagery depicts a positive-tilt trough
amplifying southwestward across Utah. This system will brush the
region this evening, ushering breezy to locally windy conditions.
The windiest areas will be within the Colorado River valley, where
wind gusts of 40-50 miles per hour will be possible. A Wind Advisory for the
lower Colorado River area early Thursday morning. In response to the
winds, hazardous boating conditions are expected, particularly
across Lake Mohave and the Virgin Basin of Lake Mead. Elsewhere,
breezy north winds with gusts between 25-35 will be possible
Winds will relax Friday as the aforementioned trough Hooks to the
east and a expansive ridge nudges into the southwest. Temps will
warm to above normal by Saturday under height rises. A stronger
weather system is progged to move into the Great Basin Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Details with this system are still a tad
unclear, but models are trending to a widespread, possibly
significant, wind event across the southern Great Basin. Along with
the strong Post-frontal winds, temperatures will drop quickly to
readings 8-12 degrees below normal by early next week.
Fire weather...strong winds Thursday will result in critical fire
weather conditions, mainly for the Colorado River valley. A red flag
warning will go into effect Thursday morning for the river zones.
Elsewhere, near-critical conditions are expected with the frontal
passage. Winds will relax most areas on Friday, with breeziness
linger down the River Valley. Another system will lead to another
round of gusty winds late this weekend.
Aviation...for McCarran...northeast winds are expected to remain in
place through the early evening with speeds between 8-10 kts. There
will also be a few gusts up to 16 kts at times. Winds may also turn
more northerly at times, but overall the general direction is
expected to remain northeast. After 02z, winds are forecast to
become more variable with speeds under 6 kts that should continue
through 15z Thursday. By late Thursday morning winds are expected to
increase out of the northeast with speeds between 10-20 kts which
are expected to remain in place through the afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...the focus for wind impacts today will remain along the
Colorado River and include the keed/kifp sites. Gust potential up to
25-30 kts will be possible at times into this evening. The remainder
of the after this afternoon will see north to northeast winds 10-20
kts. Minimal impacts expected at kdag.
Stronger northeast winds expected late Thursday morning with most
areas seeing winds 10-25 kts. However, stronger winds will develop
down the Colorado River valley where winds are expected to be 25-35
Spotter information statement...spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to Standard operating