AllyBama's WunderBlog

Friday, October 9th

By: AllyBama, 4:16 AM GMT on September 01, 2009

FYI - still no baby but we are getting ever so close - so we have just accepted the fact that Lydia will be here on October 21 as scheduled..this way, we will avoid the trauma involved thinking that "today will be the day - and it ain't!..lol



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Countdown Clocks







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY STILL
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OR CWFA...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTHEAST AL TO INLAND SE MS. ALOFT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATER TODAY AS
IT SHIFTS EAST RESULTING IN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD THIS
FEATURE SHIFTING EAST AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
AL...STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO THE MS COAST AND THE MOUTH OF THE MS
RIVER BY 12Z SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY INCREASED MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING
IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT BOUNDARY LINGERING
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ALOFT...AS PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO
FRI...AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MOSTLY WELL TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THIS TIME A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN POSTED GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE STRETCHING MOBILE TO GREENVILLE IN ALABAMA
WHICH INCLUDES MOST AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST MS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT.
/32

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STALL. THIS
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SAT AND SUN. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT AS
UPPER DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN. THIS WILL BRING BACK WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND LEAD TO
CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS...THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY NEXT WEEK. /13

.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING 5 TO 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL THEN DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER LATER
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RESUME THEREAFTER...
WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --HAVE UPDATED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME STEADIER LIGHT RAIN JUST
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT INTO NYC METRO BETWEEN 11Z-
15Z...PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF AREA ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST
PA/NORTHEAST MD AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP UNTIL BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN PA NEAR NOSE OF H8 JET IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF NYC
AND LONG ISLAND. SHARP POP GRADIENT FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND...TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE INTERIOR. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
LOCALLY HEAVY WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE. THIS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE BELOW
MIXED PHASE LEVELS WHERE CHARGE SEPARATION COULD TAKE PLACE...SO
THUNDER NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON VIA DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THINK MAX TEMPS FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH LATEST OBS INDICATING LOBE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHING OFF OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHICH COULD
COMBINE WITH PRECIP LATER TODAY TO PRODUCE IN-SITU COOL AIR
DAMMING. HIGH TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S...AND MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER ON IF THE FRONT
STALLS AND THIS SCENARIO DOES DEVELOP.--


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS WHERE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CAT POP RETURNS DURING THE EVENING
NORTH/WEST OF NYC...WITH LIKELY POP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT BETTER
ELEVATED CAPE REACHING INTO MIXED PHASE LEVELS...SO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT AFTER FROPA
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE YET TO PASS THROUGH...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND MAY LAST INTO SAT MORNING. DRY WX
RETURNS BY SAT AFTERNOON ON A LIGHT TO MODERATE DOWNSLOPE NW
FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS 65-70.

FAIR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WX IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ON
SUNDAY...AND BARELY REACHING 60 IN NYC ON MON. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT...ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S WELL INLAND...
WITH POSSIBLE FROST...AND INTO THE 40S IN NYC/COASTAL SECTIONS.

Today: A chance of rain, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 70. South wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 2am, then showers likely after 2am. Low around 60. Southwest wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of light rain before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 69. North wind between 15 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. North wind between 3 and 9 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming west between 11 and 14 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

AllyBama's WunderBlog

About AllyBama

I am an old lady who lives in a shoe, white hair, blue eyes and all of five foot two.