Astro's Blog

Ambiguity

By: Astrometeor, 9:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2016

Astro's Thesis on Ambiguity

Chapter One: Initial Blog Comments

Quoting 76. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are no guarantees that this run comes to fruition, or even that one of these waves develops. But as I said yesterday, it's mid-August. Things will get interesting even in the face of hostile conditions (some dust, sinking air aloft, etc.) We saw a borderline Category 4 in the central Atlantic last year among the strongest El Nino on record.


Quoting 90. Astrometeor:



Borderline C4? Joaquin was not borderline.


Commence firestorm of replies (sheesh guys).

Quoting 91. HurricaneFan:


He's talking about Danny


Quoting 92. Articuno:



I think he means is borderline from being a CAT 5


^That I could see (in deference to my original comment).

Quoting 96. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joaquin was in the central Atlantic? I was referring to Danny.

Borderline is probably not the correct word though, since it didn't hit Cat 4. Peaked as an upper-end (110kt) Cat 3.


Was it? Let's find out.

Quoting 115. SLU:



You need to beef up on your hurricane history.






Accidental mistakes due to someone's not-so-clear statements do not necessitate me needing to "beef up" on hurricane history.

Quoting 119. CaribBoy:



Danny was.


Ah, so this is who Cody meant.

Chapter Two: The evidence.

Now I put forth two images of concrete evidence.

Image #1:

 photo Joaquin was Central Atlantic_zps947h0kiz.png

Note the line of demarcation and also the tip of Cuba and the nice horn-shaped area that will then be compared in Image #2.

Image #2:

 photo Central Atlantic from NOAA SSD_zpskpz1pi9t.png

Now compare. Note the tip of the island nation of Cuba.

Conclusion:

According to the track map on the Wikipedia entry file of Joaquin, and the Satellite and Information Service of NOAA, the hurricane's track started out in, and never ventured west of the Central Atlantic satellite box. Ergo, I concur that my assumption in my earlier comment that the posted was referencing Joaquin was a fair assumption to make. Ambiguity, even in the most gentle and friendly of circumstances is a mistake.

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