During the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, this blog will focus on tropical systems that impact The Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands.
By: BahaHurican, 11:31 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
The third tropical depression of the 2010 season formed today [22nd July 2010] and was upgraded by the National Hurricane Centre shortly after 8:00 a.m. Since the location of the disturbance was well within Bahamian waters, I decided to do a series of Storm Progress Reports for TD 3 / future Tropical Storm Bonnie.
2:36 PM EDT on July 22, 2010
Storm Progress Report #1 for TD3 / Future TS Bonnie
2:30 p.m. 22 July 2010
Weather here in the SW quadrant of New Providence has begun to deteriorate in advance of the passage of TD 3 to the south. The storm is currently centred about 50 miles east of Duncan Town in the Ragged Island Range of the Bahamas and about 250 miles southeast of New Providence.
Early cloud cover moved in around 12:30 this afternoon, and some rain began to fall in the centre of the island around 1:20 p.m. On the northwest coast near the Cable Beach strip, it was overcast still not raining as late as 1:45 p.m. Inland, a rainsquall drenched the Blue Hill and Carmichael Road areas. At 2:00 p.m. winds were steady from the NE at 14 mph, but higher gusts have been experienced, with some easterly winds seen.
5:02 PM EDT on July 22, 2010
Here is the NHC 5-day track for TD 3. It is currently forecast to cross Ragged Island and South Andros before it heads toward South Florida.
5 p.m. Advisory Forecast Track for TD 3.
7:15 PM EDT on July 22, 2010
Evening again, all. The lead newscaster on ZNS, our local TV station, just got handed an email from the Met office detailing the upgrade of TD3 to Bonnie. It doesn't change a whole lot for us; winds hopefully won't get above 50 mph overnight, but pple were warned about flooding in lowlying areas. The met expects Bonnie to exit stage west tomorrow afternoon.
8:05 PM EDT on July 22, 2010
Storm Progress Report #2 for TS Bonnie
Conditions in Nassau, Bahamas shortly before 8 p.m. EDT, 22 July, 2010.
Bonnie's cloud movements are very evident here, as the lower level clouds are racing off to the west (driven by easterly winds) while the more towering clouds, their tops still gleaming with the last of the evening's sunlight, move slowly.
Currently sustained winds continue to be from the east, but we are in a little lull here in the SW quadrant of New Providence. The temperature has definitely dropped; right now it feels like 8:00 p.m. on a November evening instead of July 22.
Recent image of TS Bonnie with New Providence at the centre of the image. Source: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
By: BahaHurican, 11:24 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
This year has been forecasted to be a very active one. Forecasts from reputable sources range from 14 to 23 named storms, with the average falling between 18 and 19 named storms. Other forecasts as high as 26 have been put forth. Regardless of the exact number, however, most sources cite the early transition from el nino to la nina, higher than average Sea Surface Temperatures, along with a mostly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) as reasons for us to expect a greater number of named storms, powerful storms, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 1 1/2 to 2 times the norm.
Given that The Bahamas / Turks and Caicos archipelago is climatologically the geographic location most frequently impacted by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, it seems likely to expect a larger number of strikes here this year. Added to that, some of the factors mentioned in the previous paragraph tend to lead to storm tracks that are more likely to impact these islands.
As a result, I've decided to blog a little more actively this year in order to provide updates on current tropical weather systems that have the potential to, are impacting, or have impacted these lovely islands. What I hope to do is to give information about any tropical system that can or does brush or strike our area, along with updates on local happenings as they relate to these events.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.