CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Update on Hurricane Gustav and a few areas of Threats.

By: CybrTeddy, 9:38 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

Hurricane Gustav.
Active tropics today. I will start off with Gustav. Originally, Gustav was forcasted to become a Category 5 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 MPH. Gustav made landfall as a Strong Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 150 MPH, about 6 MPH away from Category 5 Strength. Gustav might be upgraded in post-season to Category 5 hurricane status, and likely to be retired. Gustav weakened down to a 115 MPH Category 3 hurricane, but thats still extremely deadly.

( A Current image of Hurricane Gustav )

Buoy data indicates that maximum wave hieghts are about 45-30 feet, extremely dangerous. Looking at the National Hurricane Center loops for Gustav, right now its heading NW, East of the forcasting positions. Its pretty solid it seems on were Gustav will go, however nothing is set in stone. Area's around Morgan City and Houma Louisiana. seem likely to be effected seem likely as a landfall point. New Orleans is being evacuated, landfall is expected to be a 120 MPH Category 3 hurricane, its very possible that the Levee's will breach.

Tropical Storm Hanna
Hanna is still disorganized, mostly due to Shear and Dry Air near the system. However the system is starting to appear a little better organized. Maximum sustained winds are only 45 mph,

(Image of Tropical Storm Hanna.)

Models are pretty well split, right now it can go anywere from Cuba to New York City, I won't speculate on were exactly it will go or how strong it will be, However a Category 1 Hurricane is very possible and is forcasted.

Disturbance 98L

Basically a Disorganized mess, I really don't expect development out of this. The National Hurricane Center gives it a Low (<20%) of Development.

Disturbance 97L a Threat to develop
98L has become better organized, banding features are evident, and it looks like it has a Closed Low Level Circulation and a fairly strong one. Convection isn't to strong, due to Dry Air over the system. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a High (50%>) chance of Development. I expect this will become Tropical Depression 9 at the earliest monday, do to Dry air and some shear. Computer models send it out to sea but that always changes, so we will have to watch it.

I will post an update Very early tomorrow morning, when Gustav makes landfall.

Fay Dies, but still a heavy Rain Maker; Disturbance 94L a Carribean threat.

By: CybrTeddy, 12:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2008

At 8 PM yesterday, Tropical Storm Fay was downgraded to a Tropical Depression and the Finial advisory was issued. Fay looks like it will be Retired, after causing bad Flooding in Florida and killing over a Hundred people in the Carribean.

Fay right now is heading in a General North to East Direction, causing heavy Rains over area's of the South. Lets take a look at what Fay did. Fay formed over Hispaniola, and survived the trip virtually unharmed, hit Cuba twice, hit South Florida as a 60 MPH TS, strengthened over land to a 986 MB TS with 65 MPH winds and a Eyewall with an Eye, then it exited the coast off of Bevard county, causing heavy rains of 30+ Inches. This also caused Minor Damage to Hard were on processing for the Space Shuttle's Endeavour and Atlantis, which are scheduled to launch in October and November.

Now, on to the new Disturbance, 94L. Right now 94L is basically, a blob with some rotation in the Mid-Level's, nothing down in the surface as of yet. Upper level winds are forecasted to be favorable for development, with high SST's, TCHP, and moist air, as well with a slower movement of about 10-15 MPH. I believe that 94L will develop on mid-Day monday after the Recon goes in.

My Forecast for 94L is pretty strait forward, I think 94L will develop into a Tropical Storm, perhaps a Hurricane later this weak as it moves W-WNW Direction. Right now, its hard to say were 94L makes landfall, anywere from Haiti to Texas should be on alert, as well as Mexico.

I will have an update tomorrow on the status of 94L.

Fay Emerges from Haiti, Florida Threat.

By: CybrTeddy, 1:49 PM GMT on August 16, 2008

Good Morning everyone. At 5PM Yesterday Fay formed and was already inland over Hispaniola, it has now either about to Emerge or already over waters again. Fay did very well over land, I was expecting it to weaken to At least 40 MPH, but Fay's different. Fay remains well organized. However the MLC (Mid Level Center.) and the LLC (Low Level Center.) Remains titled, but that could very well change as Fay emerges in High
Water temperatures and High TCHP (Figure 1) (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potiental.) And could before it hits Cuba rapidly intensify.

(Figure one shows the High TCHP in its way, remember, Felix Rapidly intensified in lower TCHP.)

I will have an update later today, I will talk about the latest advisory and track, and I could very likely loose power if the storm gets to close to me, It will likely bring Strong TS winds to my area.

Update on Invest 92L.

By: CybrTeddy, 3:36 PM GMT on August 14, 2008

Good Morning to all, It appears that the Tropical Disturbance that we have been watching (92L) is nearing Tropical Depression Status. The SAB and the TAFB have recent T Numbers of 1.5 for the SAB and 2.0 for the TAFB.

Currently, 92L is well organized, with a possible CDO (Central Dense Overcast.) Developing over the System. 92L has good Upper Level Divergence, and also has Lower Level Divergence.
An Anti-Cyclone is over 92L and moving in tandem with the system, basically repealing Shear and Upper Level Winds are forcasted to become more favorable.

(Figure 1. 92L can be seen with a possible CDO over the system)

The NHC P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter Aircraft are scheduled to fly out in 92L at 1 PM, although its a Research mission, it will confirm weather or not 92L has achieved TD, possibly TS Status. The NHC places 92L in a High Potential for Tropical Cyclone development. (50%>) with the Navy stating a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.)


(Figure 2. An Anti-Cyclone can be clearly seen with 92L, this causes 5-10 kt shear over it and helps with outflow and development.)

The Track is hard to tell, currently the 12z Guidance models
have shifted west from the 06z Model's. At 06z most model's were forecasting it out to sea and or VA or NC hit, now they have shifted west towards Florida, although not hitting it.

(Figure 3, the 12z Guidance Models, only the GFS takes it out to sea.)
Model's often change, and this system could go anywhere, right now I am not speculating on track. In the mean time, I suggest fellow Floridans to watch the progress of this System, and follow your Local NWS (National Weather Service.) and the NHC (National Hurricane Center.)

I will do an update whenever 92L is declared a TD (Or TS.)


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.