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By: CybrTeddy, 4:15 AM GMT on April 18, 2009
The time of year has come to make my first Preseason forecast, and I think we're in store for although a less active year than last year, I think we're still going to see quite a few storms.
15 Named storms.
Waves and La Nina/El Nino Cycles.
Recently, I have observed not only 1 but over 2 tropical waves to emerge off the African coast this week, refer to 456's blog for the first one (figure 1), the second one being yesterday.
SST's throughout the Atlantic Basin are Below normal for this time of year and La Nina has ended. By September I think it is highly probable that we will have a warm neutral ENSO.
SAL And Wind shear.
I believe although someone correct me if I am wrong, the SAL is below average this time of year. SAL is the African dust that rolls off the African coast, strangling a Hurricane of Moister. I believe it won't be a problem again for Hurricanes this year. Shear is lowering throughout the basin as the Jet Stream begins to lift north although in some area's it is 70 kts.
The only prohibiting factors I see is the possibility of an EL NINO forming to replace the La Nina, this will limit Hurricane activity. I believe it is a fairly good chance that this will be similar to 2004 in terms of track *Hopefully not* and storms.
I will post a far more detailed pre-season forecast in mid-May.
"It only takes one" Remember that quote.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.