CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

The short life of Agatha, Tropical Update. 5/30/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2010

Tropical Depression Agatha

Yesterday, what I didn't mention was 90E which was gaining organization. 90E gained enough organization to become TD 1-E and very quickly there after, Tropical Storm Agatha. Agatha didn't last very long however, and made landfall very unexpectedly. Agatha's main problem now is rain, heavy rain will plague Mexico and cause mudslides that might destroy people and property.

Agatha at peak intensity



Tropical Update


There are currently no threats to discuss, other than the small possibility of Agatha's remains translating over to the Caribbean, and most models aren't predicting anything to spin up for the next few days.

TCHP Comparisons
2010


2009


2008


2007


2006


2005


Daily ENSO


Shear


Dust


CybrTeddy

NOAA predicts stunning numbers, Tropical update 5/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 11:57 AM GMT on May 29, 2010

I'm only going to do a brief summary on the Atlantic. I'm going to spend most of my time on NOAA's insane prediction.

Right now, little to no threat expected. Even though this hurricane season will likely be in Dr. Grays words 'one hell of a year', its still May and conditions are still hostile (below average however) with the exception of the Eastern Caribbean, 5 - 10 knot shear there with record warm SSTs. Tropical waves however, would have to get past that 30 knot barrier just outside the Virgin Islands.

You can infer here..


Shear tendencies are decreasing as the Jet stream begins to make its move north as it should this time of year.


Dust is heavy, but below average.


I do not expect tropical cyclone development through Sunday.

NOAA Predictions one of the most active Hurricane seasons.

Read here for further info
Link

1) NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season

2) The conditions expected this year have historically produced some very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2010 hurricane season could see activity comparable to a number of extremely active seasons since 1995. If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of our predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record.

3) * 14-23 Named Storms,
* 8-14 Hurricanes
* 3-7 Major Hurricanes
* An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.


These numbers are ASTOUNDING! Not only the fact they predict up to 23 named storms, but the spread of possibilities. We're either looking at a 1998 style season or a 2005 style season. But you got to average it all in, and its more likely to be 17-19 named storms still, and the conditions we see right now do indicate that its likely we'll see something like that. The ACE predictions also indicates we'll probably see a hyperactive season.

4) The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook primarily reflects an expected set of conditions during the peak months (August-October) of the season that is very conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This expectation is based on the prediction of three climate factors, all of which are conducive historically to increased tropical cyclone activity. These climate factors are: 1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, 2) a continuation of exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR, which includes the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic ocean between 9oN-21.5oN; Goldenberg et al. 2001), and 3) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely.

La Nina is indeed likely, the anomalies in the EPAC are already signifying that we'll see it. Here's some figures for you if you want to see what they mean.





TCHP in the Caribbean is also spiraling out of control.



In short, even if NOAA's numbers are off we'll still see an active season. This has caused me to unexpectedly up my predictions to:

17 - 19 named storms
8-11 Hurricanes
4-6 Majors

Its best to be prepared, and to do that is key. Follow all emergency preparations that the local governments give you in terms of supplies and evacuation routes. And trust me, if your going to make the decision to evacuate DONT ever do it 6 hours from landfall, you'll be trapped on an interstate or worse a bridge while a major storm makes landfall, not good.

Tropical Update 5/27/10

By: CybrTeddy, 6:44 PM GMT on May 27, 2010

Invest 90L still around, but almost dead

90L made a brief comeback this morning as convection suddenly flared up around the COC. This brief organization has now halted as strong shear has removed the convection from the COC by 50 miles or so.





Invest 90E in the Pacific likely to become TD 1-E

A TCFA has been issued for 90E. Spiral banding is also evident on satellite images. It is likely that within the next 24 hours that this will be TD-1E.



90E's a monsoon like system, so it will take awhile to organize, like a great big soup.

NOAA Predicts 14-23 named storms for the Atlantic Hurricane season

For the big news of the day, NOAA has predicted that this season will feature between 14-23 named storms, this averages out to about 18-20 named storms, which is what I hold my predictions in store for this year now. NOAA sites the dissipation of the El Nino to neutral conditions as the main contribute of the forecast for an active season. However the spread is a massive 9 storms.. I'll be looking forward for Dr. Gray's predictions next week.

ENSO as of most recently updated.


TCHP

90L unlikely to amount to anything, Caribbean looks promising. 5/25/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:39 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

90L is all but dead, strong shear and its inability to revert to tropical has all but killed it. <10% chance of development.



Thunderstorms associated with 90L is low, and shear is high and will likely remain that way. No development is no longer expected.

Caribbean disturbance in the making?

A disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is in the brewing. Some models, most particularly the GFS, are hoping with bringing the disturbance in the East Pacific into the Caribbean for possible cyclongenesis. Now, its too early to speculate the strength of this possible tropical storm, other than that the chances exist and I will closely monitor this system.

Apologies for such a quick update, on the iPad and on the run.

Will the real 90L LLC stand up ? And Hurricane Season 2010 predictions. 5/24/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:49 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

Afternoon everyone, first post of my daily entries.

Tropical Invest 90L is continuing to churn out in the tropical Atlantic. But it his HIGHLY disorganized as it has been since birth.. but it is indeed slowly getting better organized.. with multiple COC's to boot, the most dominate and noticeable COC is at 28N 71W.

Current satellite image of 90L.


90L is highly unlikely to affect land, even if it doesn't become a named system. Shear, and marginal SSTs will keep it at bay. Only a shipping threat.

Right now I place the odds at 35%, inline with the NHC's thinking.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane season

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season promises to be an extreme one. There are not many inhibiting factors to this season.

First of all, lets start with TCHP comparisons. TCHP as you know stands for Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, and helps contribute for rapid intensification of tropical Cyclones.

TCHP yesterday


2009


2008


2007


2006


2005


2010 beats out all of them, 2005 and 2007 come in second.

El Nino is gone, as you know El Nino encourages increased trade winds in the Caribbean, causing less storms. We've also hit the 0.0C+ mark.. we're dead neutral going into a cold neutral and La Nina into deep part of hurricane season.



This shows the progression of the developing La Nina.


Shear is also been favoring below climatological means..
The A/B high is also positioned in a way that less storms will head out to sea and in the Caribbean where those record TCHPs and SSTs are.

Final predictions..

17 named storms.
8 Hurricanes
5 majors.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.