CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Massive Hurricane Alex spreading into the Texas/Mexico borders 6/30/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:49 PM GMT on June 30, 2010

Hurricane Alex once again dominates my discussion today. Alex is currently located at 23.8°N 95.5°W, maximum sustained winds are at 80 mph and the pressure is at 959 mb. Alex is moving towards the NW at 7 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles out from the center of Alex, and hurricane force winds extend about 60 miles out from the center. Alex will likely make landfall sometime within the next 24 hours. Satellite images reveal an organizing system, with great spiral banding on all sides of the system. Cloud tops are as cold as -80C on Infrared, indicating we have clouds shooting up very high in the atmosphere. The pressure of 961 mb is extraordinarily low for a moderate Category 1 hurricane, and we could see winds catch up soon to those pressures. The intensity forecast is very simple and straight forward, Alex will continue strengthening up to landfall and I expect Alex to hit as a 90-105 mph Hurricane. The main concern of Alex is storm surge and flooding from the massive rains as Alex is a very slow moving hurricane, we could see flooding as far north as Galveston from those massive spiral banding coming out from Alex's circulation.


(current satellite image of Hurricane Alex)

Alex will also spawn several tornadoes today especially over Texas. Residents need to be alert as this system moves in for possible spin ups as they can happen very suddenly and without warning with Hurricanes. Texas can expect throughout the day continued amount of squall lines with winds gusting up to 50 mph from the system, and as just mentioned very sudden spin ups that can damage property and take lives. Flooding is also a concern for the Texas areas, and people in low lying areas are the most at risk for flooding and damage to homes or property. Alex will continue a WNW track slowly and will make landfall by 5 am CDT tomorrow morning.

The latest advisory of Alex from the National Hurricane Center:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...BUT FORECAST TO DO SO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
95.5 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...BUT A TURN MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN SOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the July 4th weekend. I will post my July predictions after Alex dissipates tomorrow.

UPDATE Both the NOGAPS and the ECMWF develop a system in the Caribbean and both have been very consistent with it. They where the first two models to pick up on Alex. Could see this system by July 7th or the 8th.

Hurricane Alex moving towards the Mexician coast line 6/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:54 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

Evening everyone! I'm going to do a quick update on the status of Alex. Just as I was about to type this, Alex was upgraded to hurricane status with winds of 75 mph and pressure of a very low 972 mb for a Category 1 hurricane. Alex is the first Hurricane to form in the Atlantic in the month of June in 15 years. Alex current has great spiral banding around the storm, and a 8 nm eye reported by the hurricane hunters. NHC predicts that there is a 33% of RI (rapid intensification) occurring with Alex over the next few hours, however I believe that to be unlikely to ever happen and I think Alex will peak at 85 knots (100 mph) a Category 2 hurricane. The area where Alex is going to hit is defiantly going to be Mexico, however Alex is so large that the area's affected by Hurricane Dolly in 2008 will feel moderate tropical storm force winds. The area's being affected in Mexico by Alex will experience heavy winds and possibly life threatening flooding. Alex is currently heading west at 9 mph, and should reach land either late tomorrow night or early Thursday morning as a Category 1 or possibly a Category 2 hurricane.









I will have another update tomorrow at noon.

CybrTed

Alex slowly gaining strenght in the Gulf 6/28/10

By: CybrTeddy, 12:02 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

Afternoon all! Alex regained tropical storm status last night and has slowly become better organized over the past 24 hours. Alex is currently located at 20.5°N 91.8°W moving to the NW at 5 mph. Satellite images show Alex slowly organizing, with cloudtops over the COC and in bands cooling to -80C, a sign of Alex finally moving away from the Yucatan. Recon today found Alex about as strong as it was when it hit the Yucatan on Saturday, with 60 mph tropical storm force winds and a pressure of 990 mb. Alex however has had a problem today with dry air and shear by a ULL to the North of the system. Water Vapor images show a gap between the band to the north of the COC dry air being filtered out of Alex's system. Also Alex's current very low forward speed is causing upwelling underneath the system. Alex needs to get past these barriers in order for any significant intensification to begin.


(Satellite shows Alex trying to become better organized)

The intensity forecast and the track forecast are very hard to predict right now. The intensity of Alex depends on what way it heads. If Alex heads more north than what the National Hurricane Center is predicting, Alex will have more time over water and gain strength. If Alex moves south, vice versa happens. Currently there is a trough situated over the Northeast United States trying to create a weakness to pull Alex more northward, and the ridge behind the trough over the Rocky mountains is trying to build back in. This is where track gets really tricky, if the ridge doesn't build back in time Alex will be influenced more north and a landfall in the Texas / Louisiana area is more likely as favored by the GFS and the GFDL. If the ridge builds back in enough to send Alex into Mexico, Alex will have less time to strengthen and will dissipate over the Mexican mountains as the ECMWF favors. Even if the ECMWF prediction verifies, Alex will still have enough time to at least make it to a high end Category 1 status and probable a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane. Both these predictions I have low confidence in, and I'm in line with the National Hurricane Center's current thinking as a blend of both. I do though in the end suspect Alex might make landfall in extreme southern Texas and have similar effects to the area as Hurricane Dolly did in 2008. Keep in mind though, Alex will be a much larger system than Dolly ever was, and its effects will be felt much more greatly across Texas and Mexico. I also suspect intensity will be in the 100 - 105 mph range for Alex and landfall, as TCHP is deeper as we go more north and wind shear is predicted to lessen up on Alex. Bottom line, it all depends on whether the trough kicks out in time. This is a bad scenario either ways.. and might cause heavy amounts of flooding in Mexico or Texas. All eyes need to be focused on Alex in the next couple of days.


(Current model runs)


(Model intensity forecasts on Alex)

CybrTed

Tropical Storm Alex makes landfall in the Yucatan. 6/27/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:05 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Tropical Depression Alex dominates my discussion today, as its now inland over the Yucatan about to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. Alex did something very Fay-ish (in reference to 2008's Tropical Storm Fay) and decided to increase organization over the Yucatan. While winds or pressures went down and up respectively, the structure of Alex has become much better defined, with spiral banding noted in all quadrants of the system. Alex also currently features banding that stretch all the way to the Eastern Pacific that will influence Tropical Storm Darby to the NE. Alex was the main contribute of Darby's weakening from a Category 3 hurricane, this system is so large that it fed off of Small Hurricane Darby. Alex's feeder bands also stretch into Florida even. Alex's forward speed is about 12 mph moving at the WNW.



(Tropical Depression Alex over the Yucatan)

Intensity forecast
The intensity forecast remains problematic, mostly because of the track forecast. At the current track and remarkable increase in structure with Alex, I suspect Alex will become a Tropical Storm again later today and tomorrow continue on strengthening. Alex is likely to become a Hurricane by Tuesday morning, and it all depends on Alex's forward speed. Right now, I see no problems with Alex becoming a Category 2 hurricane as Shear is going to be low thanks to an anticyclone and SST's are scorching hot in the Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to even become a Major Hurricane if it slows down and goes more north than expected.


Track Forecast

Right now Alex is on a WNW track and will emerge off the Yucatan in 2 hours or so. The track is the most problematic issue with Alex because of whether or not that trough situated over the United States will create a weakness strong enough to influence Alex more northward, this would favor the GFDL, CMC, and GFS solution in track. However the other models, being the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and HWRF all predict that the ridge over the United States will build in enough to push Alex back westward into Mexico. Stronger hurricanes usually result in a more northward path.. and if Alex strengthens more than expected a more northern route would be likely with the system. Steering currents are also expected to be weak in the BOC, so Alex's forward speed will lower as it reaches that area. Right now I would say anywhere from Northern Mexico to Southern Texas watch Alex very closely as it has the potiental to impact you.




CybrTed

93L almost a tropical depression 6/25/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:58 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

Morning everyone! 93L is nearing tropical depression status per latest observations in the Caribbean. Currently the storm is about at 16.5 82.5W, close to Central America but far enough away to move and strengthen. Satellite images show an organizing system, with heavy convection over the LLC which is somewhat broad still but tightening up. The National Hurricane Center currently gives 93L a 70% chance of become our first tropical depression in 48 hours, which is a reasonable forecast. Pressures around 93L are dropping now, down to 1005 mb in some areas, and winds are picking up to 35 mph. The TAFB released T estimates of 1.5, however the SAB only released 1.0. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are already on route to the invest and should arrive by 2 pm. Whether or not we have a tropical depression depends if they find a LLC.



Intensity forecast
The situation with 93L is very dynamic. Several models on earlier runs brought 93L to major hurricane status, others just killed it off. While it is likely in my opinion 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex, I only give 93L a 30% chance of ever achieving Hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico. This is because the Yucatan will disrupt 93L/Alex, and will have to regain that strength back which should take 24 hours at least. I suspect 60 mph max with 93L/Alex.

Possible tracks for 93L
93L will likely take a track similar to that of Hurricane Dolly in 2008, head WNW in the Gulf of Mexico and might make landfall in Texas. I suspect 93L will continue on a WNW track when it hits the Yucatan, then continue on that path when it either hits Mexico, Louisiana, or Texas. 93L will most likely not affect Florida, but I am not 100% confident and I could very well be wrong.

TCHP

(Wow! I had to check my calendar for a second, that's late July TCHP)

CybrTed

Will post an update if 93L develops into a TD

Disorganized 93L is a threat later in the week, 6/23/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:05 PM GMT on June 23, 2010

Afternoon all! 93L is in its current state disorganized, convection is removed from the center due to slight shear and some dry air affecting the system. It is very rare to have development in the Central Caribbean, as the rule goes by John Hope 'if it doesn't develop in the Eastern Caribbean, it wont do so until it reaches the western.' I think 93L is following that rule to the letter. I give it a 30% chance inline with the NHC for development in 48 hours, Friday night however looks like if 93L decides to develop that's when it might do so. Conditions are much more favorable in the Western Caribbean, and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potiental (TCHP) is well above average, so this is when we should look for any sort of development. A recon was scheduled to fly in to 93L today, but has since been rescheduled to tomorrow afternoon.


(very disorganized, convection is moderate in most areas)

The forecast for 93L

Its a wild card now for this system, as a trough is going to be digging southward later on in this systems life. If 93L remains weak like some models are predicting, it will continue in a more western route and plow into the Yucatan and emerge towards Texas. This scenario is similar to Hurricane Dolly in 2008 in terms of track and maybe intensity. Another scenario is that 93L strengthens into a strong tropical storm in the Caribbean and heads towards the middle Gulf Coast under influence of the trough. This scenario could be similar to Hurricane Cindy in 2005. The GFDL, HWRF, ECMWF, CMC, and the NOGAPS all develop 93L. The UKMET and GFS don't, and I've ruled them out as they have been the poorest in the past 2 years in predicting cyclone genesis. However both have briefly picked up on the system, but dropped it on the next run. 93L has good model support, and conditions are favorable in the Western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico, I see no reason why 93L shouldn't develop, and I believe 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in 72 hours or so.




CybrTed

Little change to 93L 6/22/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:44 PM GMT on June 22, 2010

93L has changed little in organization

Morning everyone! 93L continues on its westerly direction this morning and should continue to until it reaches the Yucatan. ASCAT pass this morning revealed little change with 93L, with a wind shift along its axis.. yet no indication yet of a closed circulation forming with the system. The way the system appears is that a Mid-Level Circulation (MLC) could be forming. Sea Surface temperatures are highly warm at the moment, with them reaching 29C already in June. The UKMET, ECMWF, and the CMC all develop 93L while the NOGAPS and the GFS do not. 93L currently has moderate - strong convection and should begin to die off as we approach the DMIN phase of the day and blow up again tomorrow. Whenever 93L gains a Low Level Circulation (LLC) is when 93L will begin to sustain convection and organization with the system. It is then we should look for imminent tropical cyclone formation. Right now currently, it is unlikely that 93L will develop until Wednesday night or Thursday. Wind shear is also a low 5-10 knots per the CIMSS charts and is slowly gaining some week vort on the 850 mb level. An anti-cyclone is also featured over 93L, which is helping to fend off shear and ventilate the system as it continues on its track.


(current satellite image of 93L as of 14:45 UTC)

The situation with 93L is dynamic to say the least. The models have all been inconsistent with this system. The ECMWF first predicted an Ivan-like system in the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX), but has since dropped it to a moderate-Strong TS. The CMC predicts two twin systems to develop and orbit around each other, but this scenario is very unlikely to happen. The UKMET predicts 93L to become a very weak tropical storm and dissipate. The GFDL also was predicting a major hurricane in the GOMEX but has since dropped that scenario, and the HWRF has also maintained its scenario of a moderate TS. The models will continue to do this until 93L gains an established LLC, only then will we know what intensity 93L will gain. Currently, the TCHP remains at record levels in the Caribbean and the SHIPS intensity model believes 93L will make it to Hurricane status. Right now as you can tell, the situation is unfolding and we'll know more when tomorrow a Hurricane Hunter aircraft will head to 93L to hunt down a LLC. I see no real issue right now with 93L developing, and I'm in agreement with the NHC with the 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Whenever 93L gains a LLC, I will up my chances.


(current 850 mb Vort, some small gain in vort in 93L)

CybrTed

93L arrives, threat to Caribbean 6/21/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:56 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

93L arrives in the Caribbean

Tropical Invest 93L was declared this morning, and is heading towards the W-WNW at about 10 knots. 93L has very cold cloud tops, in some areas about -80C, but no evidence of a surface circulation. 93L is also situated in a area of very low shear due to an anti-cyclone situated to its W, anticyclones tend to help out with the development phase by helping inflow or helping the tropical cyclone 'breath'. It also provides very low shear, and shear also in the Gulf of Mexico in many areas are about 0-5 knots. 93L also is going to cross very high amounts of TCHP and SSTs that are about 29C. The SHIPS take 93L up to about 90 knots, or a Category 2 hurricane. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and CMC continue to develop while the GFS and UKMET don't. The GFS and UKMET have for the past 2 years done very poor with predicting cyclonegenesis. The ECMWF, NOGAPS and CMC are showing consistency, and if they continue to do so then 93L has a very good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.


(93L is over very warm SSTs)


(TCHP well above average in 93L's path)

93L will most likely begin to develop into anything by Friday, as it will interact with a trough in the Caribbean. This favors the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and the CMC's solution with time of genesis and track which should be to the WNW. If 93L develops it will likely hit the Yucatan per the latest guidance.



NOGAPS is also wanting to develop a tropical wave currently just off the coast of South America and head it into the Caribbean, over Cuba and into Florida possibly. Development of this wave begins to take place not to long after 93L develops. So, we're going to have to watch this very closely over the next couple of days. It appears to all reading this blog, that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is about to get a big jump in activity this week and next.

Threat in the Caribbean by Friday? 6/20/10

By: CybrTeddy, 10:22 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

Afternoon all, I'm back from my week trip to Michigan and I am back in Florida.

Caribbean threat growing

My discussion will be not on 92L, but on the Caribbean instead. An upward MJO pulse advances in the Caribbean and conditions will become favorable as we go by in time. MJO upward pulses as you know causes enhanced convection and moisture in the Atlantic which favors tropical storms. We usually see most tropical cyclone 'bursts' in activity during these pulses. It is very likely that we will see not only Alex, but Bonnie and Colin by mid-July. TCHP is insane to some it up, I've never seen such high values of TCHP so early in the season, it is what we would usually see in early August instead of late June.


(TCHP as of most recent)


(MJO entering the Atlantic soon)

That brings me to my worries, several credible models (ECMWF, NOGAPS, and the CMC) all predict that a tropical cyclone of abnormal strength for the month of June will spin up in the Caribbean and head towards the Gulf of Mexico and the BP Oil Spill. The ECMWF is our most credible model and if these models begin to show consistency the threat grows as we go out. The ECMWF, CMC, and the NOGAPS show it developing around 120 hours out, or on Friday in the Caribbean.


(ECMWF at 120 hours, 1006 mb low)

Such a system with the warm TCHP and SST's as I mentioned earlier should have no problems with organizing quickly, and could be a strong tropical storm as it either hits the Yucatan or heads into the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX). Afterwords I don't know, its too far out. Shear's forecast to be favorable by the time of the possible genesis of Alex.

ENSO Update




La Nina likely by early July.

CybrTed




92L Continues To Impress; Could Become A Tropical Depression At Any Time

By: CybrTeddy, 4:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2010

Hello everyone! It's MiamiHurricanes09 stepping in for CybrTeddy as some personal problems have taken place and he would like me to update his blog.

Tropical Update on 92L

92L continues to impress as satellite presentation continues to improve, good outflow and poleward and equatorward banding can be noted. 92L is currently under relatively favorable conditions with only 5-15 knot shear aloft and 28˚C-30˚C below. 92L should continue it's westward motion at about 10-15 miles per hour, possibly reaching the Antilles in about 5 days. The future of 92L still remains uncertain as there is a trough near 60˚W that could remain strong and favor westward motion or weaken and favor northward motion. We have yet to see any west-northwestward motion over the past 48 hours, and I expect this trend to continue. The more to the south that 92L goes the more chances it has of rapid intensification. The heaviest of the shear is located at around 15˚N.

12z model plots associated with 92L have trended a more southerly track. This should allow for further development. GFS 200 millibar maps are showing the possibility of a ridge developing aloft which should help allow 92L to plow through the weakening TUTT. If this were to take place 92L could possibly become a hurricane, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. At the moment the NHC is going with a 30 percent chance of formation, which in my opinion is not aggressive enough. One reason for the low percentage is how low in latitude 92L is, at this latitude 92L isn't really receiving Coriolis which could be one reason that 92L has such a broad low.

At the moment I believe there is a high chance, about 90%, of 92L becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. I will have another update soon.


Figure 1. Above is the latest satellite image of 92L.

Have a great day!

Tropical Wave worth watching, La Nina update

By: CybrTeddy, 1:53 PM GMT on June 12, 2010

Tropical Wave in the Atlantic.

Out in the MDR, a tropical wave at about 36W 13N with a 1014 mb low is showing some interesting features. Its currently moving at 0-5 mph and is not really a threat to develop. However, what makes this wave interesting is that its showing signs of organization in June. That's a telling sign of the season to come, if you have tropical waves out in the tropical Atlantic trying to develop in June your likely to see a very active Cape Verde year. Already we're very impressive waves coming off the Atlantic coast this season, especially for the month of June. Now if it wasn't for that massive shear wall off the Caribbean this wave I'm talking about might have a moderate chance to develop as it neared the Caribbean. The CFS and the GFS both develop this wave, the CFS being the more intense one with it.




Here's the shear wall I was talking about, any wave that tries to get through this barrier will be torn apart by the high amount of shear.

La Nina episode of 2010/11 likely to begin within the next 4 weeks.







Refer to my previous blogs on La Nina.

Shear climo, TCHP, SSTs, Dust.










TCHP


SSTs


Dust


CybrTed

What to expect for the Month of June, Tropical Update 6/11/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:37 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Is an active/Inactive June an indicator for the season ahead?

It rarely is. Several years give you this example. 2007 featured a storm that really developed on May 31st, and crossed over and became named on June 1st. That storm was Barry and it made landfall in Florida the next day as a tropical Depression. The entire month of June 2007 featured no named storms after Barry. 2008 is also a great example, there where no named storms in June that year except Arthur which was named May 31st and crossed over the next day as it was over the Yucatan. 2006 featured Alberto in June, which nearly made it to Hurricane status. A lot of people feared that because Alberto formed only a few days after Arlene of the 2005 hurricane season formed that 2006 would be just as active. This didn't become the case, and 2006 only featured 10 named storms. 2005 as you know however, featured 2 named storms in the month of June.

June is never a climatological favored month for tropical development, this is because usually SST's aren't that ripe yet and shear is usually way to high until the Jet Stream lifts north out of the Caribbean.

So when will we might see Alex?

If we do get a June storm this year, it will likely be in the Caribbean towards the end of the month. We've been seeing amazing waves roll off the African coast for this time of year, and all these wave's are just adding to the heat buildup in the Caribbean. Current MJO forecast suggest that MJO will return by the 25th. An upward MJO enhances moisture in the Atlantic particularity in the Caribbean, and with pressures below normal over most of the Atlantic the Caribbean is our best bet. Some models have been occasionally hinting at this too, but dropping it not to long after in the next run. Any storm that forms in the Caribbean will likely be drawn northward (pending on the area of formation, if its in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan this is more likely) or westward into land and die off. With this upward MJO wave coming in we could also expect an active July upcoming.


(an upward MJO is possible by the end of the month)





Tropical Update

Tropical Cyclone development is unlikely in the next 48 hours.

Classic La Nina developing, Tropical Update 6/10/10

By: CybrTeddy, 8:12 PM GMT on June 10, 2010

A classic La Nina is developing

La Nina is almost here! Cool anomalies in the EPAC continue to develop in a classical La Nina fashion to near -0.5C in the Nino 3.4 area. This La Nina could be similar to the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season as in that situation the 2006 El Nino dissipated over the pre-season and developed into a La Nina by Hurricane season. That season featured 15 named storms, with two Category 5 hurricanes Dean and Felix. This year could be similar to 2007 in that respect, as in La Nina years storms tend to trend into the Caribbean rather than out to sea. We could see some 'Caribbean truckers' as I like to call them this year, storms that move at 15-20 knots in the Caribbean straight west. Already, the TCHP in the Caribbean is now at a record level.. and shear continues to be below average as we would see during La Nina years. The MDR anomalies also continue to be disturbingly high.


(Anomalies in the EPAC June 10th, 2010. Note that the area off Africa is also disturbingly high)


(ENSO 3.4 as of June 10th, 2010. Once we get below the -0.5 mark, we will be in a La Nina situation)

I severely fear with the rest of you what might happen this Hurricane season. This season is already strange, all the factors have lined up in favor for it. As of late, pressure across most basins have been above average.. with one exception.. the Atlantic has been below average in terms of atmospheric pressure. Shear has been well below average the last few month, something that will likely continue as the La Nina develops.

Tropical Update

There is an area in the Caribbean that is worth watching, however its more than likely nothing serious will become of it. Some models are predicting development in the Caribbean including the ECMWF (which has as of recently, dropped the system.. failing to show consistency which is needed)

La Nina likely by July, Tropical Update 6/8/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:55 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

La Nina likely to develop

Its now likely La Nina will develop by July. ENSO charts (see below) indicate we're at a -0.4C very cold bias neutral conditions across the Pacific. For those who are new to tropical blogging and don't understand what effects La Nina cause its very simple. La Nina causes warmer anomalies of SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) in the Atlantic, and less trade winds in the Atlantic as well. The most recent La Nina year was 2007, which was a very active season with 15 storms including 2 Category 5 Hurricanes. Now, La Nina doesn't necessary assure an active season (other factors like the TUTT, African Dust play as well) but its a good chance that this will be an active season as most La Nina years featured at least 3-4 storms above normal. La Nina does the exact opposite in the Pacific, causing less storms to develop.



(ENSO chart as of June 8th, 2010 showing how close La Nina is)

This year now will very likely feature above 14 named storms, with SST's, TCHP and shear all at perfect conditions this year. La Nina might also lead to a less cold winter, which would be great after the bitter one last year that damaged so many crops across the southern United States. Now as for Hurricane season, I cannot say the same. Best to be prepared and listen to the local emergency response teams for the supplies needed before a Hurricane.

Tropical Update

There are no tropical cyclones to worry about, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 5 days. We may have to watch the Caribbean however over the weekend into early next week.

CybrTed

Why is NASA so strict about launch weather for shuttles? 6/6/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:22 PM GMT on June 06, 2010

Why won't NASA launch shuttles in anything less than pristine weather?



NASA has scrubbed launches for overcast skies, anvil clouds, weather in other countries, thunder showers within 30 nautical miles of the runway, ect and for what reason?

That's a very simple question to answer and I've heard it many times. Most of the time, they scrub for weather due to Return to Launch Site (RTLS) weather or Trans-Atlantic Landing weather (TAL) An RTLS is used in the event that a shuttle engine shuts off early in the flight, so early that the shuttle could not make it to Spain/Africa without ditching in the Atlantic. The shuttle does a 180 and turns around to Kennedy Space Center for a landing. Can't land a space shuttle with a thunderstorm pouring on the runway. Same with TAL weather, if a shuttle engine shuts down to late in the game to turn around to Kennedy, yet too early to do an Abort to Orbit (ATO) they'll have to land in Spain or for some missions in Africa. Same rules apply.

Then you have the launch itself. In November 1969 with the Apollo 12 mission was launch into a thunderstorm. During liftoff a lighting hit the spacecraft, nearly aborting the mission.





In that case, they could have ejected from the Saturn V and blown it up with the crew landing safely off the coast of Florida. Space Shuttles can't do that, as they can't jettison or shut off the solid rocket boosters in flight, they gotta ride it out. I'm sad to say this but if the space shuttle had a similar abort structure as the Saturn V the crew of Space Shuttle Challenger would have likely survived the disaster. This in itself is the main flaw of the space shuttle, not having a proper abort structure for crew survival. Now, with Columbia on the other hand, there was absolutely no way to save that crew after the de-orbit burn. No abort system could have done the job to eject the crew cabin away in time from the rest of the shuttle. This is why, whatever replaces the space shuttle whether will feature like the Soyuz spacecraft and the Saturn V a escape system for launch and a capsule for landing.

I posted this because I'm pretty sure that a lot of people on this site will be attending the next launch in September and if that scrubs due to weather you got to understand the complexities of the space shuttle. You can't just sit down at mission control as flight director and ignore a single malfunction and say 'okay, we're go regardless of a thunderstorm' the results could be disastrous.

Tropical Update

There are no tropical woes in the Atlantic at this time, and none of the models are predicting development in the next 3 days time frame. We might have to watch out for the Caribbean in the next two weeks.

CybrTed

Oil and Hurricanes, Tropical Update 6/5/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2010

The Oil Spill and Hurricanes, what would happen?

The BP oil spill came at a horrible time, on the verge of what might be a hyperactive Hurricane season. Oil is now washing up on the shores of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Already we're seeing the nature of those places being highly effected and its just going to get worse.







So what is the relation between Hurricanes and the oil spill in the GOMEX? We simply don't know. What we're pretty sure of is that there shouldn't be any noticeable effects on the hurricane itself. But what we're worried about is what the hurricane might do to the oil. If it comes in at the wrong angle, it might spread the oil spill all over the Gulf coast from Mexico to the Keys and possibly out onto the Atlantic. Or it could push it away from the coastline even if it comes in at the right angle too.

What we don't want however is a major hurricane to up well more oil from the dept of the Atlantic, that would make things only worse and right now the GOMEX appears to be a big place this year for hurricanes. I won't get into the blame game with BP or the white house, so this will most likely be one of my few posts on the serious issue associated with the BP oil spill.

Tropical Update
There are no disturbances to talk about, and nothing is predicted to develop within the next 7 days.

However, any storm that might develop will most likely happen at the end of this month. I predict a 70% chance of Arthur by June 30th if the upward MJO kicks in by then. Once the MJO kicks in, we're likely to see rounds of storms. Alex, Bonnie and possibly Colin by July 15th. Right now its a wait and see situation.

CybrTed

Atlantic is sound asleep 6/4/10

By: CybrTeddy, 11:40 PM GMT on June 04, 2010

Thanks to the downward MJO cycle, the Atlantic is quite and we're unlikely to see tropical cyclone development over the next 3 weeks. There is no model support, and there is nothing out there to discuss.

Latest MJO




A quite June is not at all an indicator of a slow season. Very active years like 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, and most recently 2008 have all had inactive Junes. Its likely that by the time the next MJO wave comes in late this month we'll see not only Alex but Bonnie along with it. I suspect we might see Alex in the June 20th - 30th time frame.

Current TCHP


Wind shear


Shear tendencies


SAL


ENSO (now a cool neutral)


Steering Layers


In short, tropical cyclone development is no expected within the next 72 hours.

CybrTed

CSU predicts 'hell of a year', Tropical Update 6/2/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:57 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

Dr. Klotzbach predicts historic hurricane season

Afternoon all! This is my first blog of the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2010, and it promises to be insane. Dr. Klotzbach of Colorado State University have come out with new numbers on pair of my current line of thinking.

CSU's predictions
18 named storms
10 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes.

That's intense right there folks. That kind of activity is on pair with a 1995 style Hurricane season.

TCHP 2010


2009


2008


2007


2006


2005


El Nino


Just by looking at those two factors, I'm fairly sure that the bulk of the activity this year will be focused on the Caribbean, with the greatest threat being another Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Dean this year. Storms that get into the gulf would also cause havoc on that oil spill in the GOMEX. I dread to know how major hurricanes and an the BP Oil Spill will mix.

Shear


Shear Tendency


Developing La Nina


Global SSTs and Anomalies map also showing the progression of the La Nina.


Tropical Update
There are no tropical cyclone threats to speak of within the next 24-48 hours, however an anti-cyclone is in place over the Caribbean and it shouldn't be too hard for something to spring up within the next two weeks. We already just had briefly 91L out of the remains of Agatha, however they failed to develop.

Any Caribbean system would likely be drawn northward into the Gulf and towards the West coast of Florida.

CybrTed



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.