CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Disorganized EATL disturbance slowly organizing 7/31/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:24 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

Afternoon all! 90L got deactivate this morning which caught me by surprise, as the NHC still had it at 20% this morning and in fact has now risen the probabilities of development to 30% (Medium) in the next 48 hours. Ex-90L's starting to show increased amounts of convection over the estimated COC but the system itself has no real organized structure to it rather it is just a blob trying to gain more organization. I do not believe ex-90L's attached to the ITCZ anymore rather its growing organized within the ITCZ similar to what 92L did last month. Rotation is starting to become more evident in the satellite loops and convection has been steadily increasing over the pass few hours and there is some -80C convection and hints of spiral banding it appears on IR. The models are becoming more in agreement on this system developing, the ECMWF dropped it yesterday but since 12z the ECMWF shows a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


(current Infrared image of ex-90L)

While the ECMWF still develops 90L, I believe that if 90L develops it will do so before entering the Caribbean rather than in the Gulf of Mexico. All the other models are developing this system and taking it North of the islands (and possibly, out to sea) it is a very speculative time here though, it is certainly possible with the A/B high that this system could be forced westward in the Caribbean if it remains weak but if it strengthens enough it is possible that it will be influenced more poleward and hopefully move on out to sea with nothing but a shipping threat. I am leaning more towards a blend of the CMC and the GFS's track.


(12z ECMWF 240 hours)

Intensity is very difficult to speculate because this is going to be one of those storms that intensity influences track. If it strengthens like the CMC and NOGAPS show it will go possibly out to sea, but if it remains weak it will eventually enter the very warm Caribbean like the ECMWF is showing. I see no problems right now ahead of ex-90L to become Tropical Storm Colin in 108 hours or so. I give this system a MODERATE-HIGH chance (50-60%) of ever becoming a tropical cyclone and a 30% in the next 48 hours.

CybrTed

90L a threat down the road 7/30/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:09 PM GMT on July 30, 2010

Good morning everyone! The tropics after a very benign period the last week are beginning to pick up in activity. Currently we have Tropical Invest 90L moving W along the ITCZ at 8.9N 31.7W. 90L isn't impressive looking to me, because this is very early in the game for development and we won't bee seeing this spin up anytime soon but it is a threat down the road because you see, if you just look at the satellite picture of the MLC you'll see disorganized showers and thunderstorms but you need to look at the wave behind 90L, these two systems might begin to interact and merge together into one system creating a tropical cyclone. If one forms that's how its going to do it and we need to watch it over the next several days. The ECMWF, CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS develop 90L is some shape or form, and all intensity models take this system to hurricane status so it again bears watching. The ECMWF is the most impressive with intensity, it shows a hurricane barring down in the Caribbean next week and trucking it in a similar fashion to Hurricane Felix. This scenario probably won't happen, although a track like that is certainly in the playing cards.



00z ECMWF 216 hours.


We'll see what happens!

Sorry for the short update I'm very tired.

CybrTed

90L and Antilles disturbance to watch 7/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2010

Afternoon all! 90L is here. Currently the system is located at 8.5N 30W. Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph, central pressure is 1010 mb. Satellite images revel a system organizing but embedded within the ITCZ. I suspect that this will separate from the ITCZ within 36 hours and begin to strengthen over the next few days as we go along and we could see TD4 / Tropical Storm Colin before mid-next week. The ECMWF at 00z was developing this into a hurricane but again has dropped it at 12z. I'm starting to suspect the ECMWF has problems initializing the center of 90L, as where it has it at 12z seems right but it shows it at a 1013 mb pressure and keeps it that way through the entire run where as the 00z is more in line with the current organization of 90L, and I suspect that at 00z this will again have a pretty potent system and this time 'should' keep it at tomorrows 12z because now we have a invest and that should keep it on there. The CMC continues to make this a hurricane, with conditions possible this is certainly possible. NOGAPS also develops this system. GFS doesn't show much but I think because of the new upgrade to the para that the GFS might be having resolution problems. The SHIPS and DSHP take 90L to 81 knots, a near Category 2 hurricane.



If 90L manages to seperate from the ITCZ like the models are indicating, and takes advantage of the favorable conditions ahead I see no problem why 90L shouldn't become Tropical Storm Colin. I will not speculate on track nor intensity too much as we go out although I do believe this will go north of the islands per models. NHC gives 90L a LOW (20%) chance of development within the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, a vigorous tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, satellite images revel no signs of a circulation as of yet although in the last few frames it 'appears' to be trying to become better organized. Shear appears to be lessening as it comes towards a anti-cyclone in the Caribbean. We will have to watch it very closely once it reaches the WCARB it could become a problem.



Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.

CybrTed

90L and Antilles disturbance to watch 7/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2010

Afternoon all! 90L is here. Currently the system is located at 8.5N 30W. Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph, central pressure is 1010 mb. Satellite images revel a system organizing but embedded within the ITCZ. I suspect that this will separate from the ITCZ within 36 hours and begin to strengthen over the next few days as we go along and we could see TD4 / Tropical Storm Colin before mid-next week. The ECMWF at 00z was developing this into a hurricane but again has dropped it at 12z. I'm starting to suspect the ECMWF has problems initializing the center of 90L, as where it has it at 12z seems right but it shows it at a 1013 mb pressure and keeps it that way through the entire run where as the 00z is more in line with the current organization of 90L, and I suspect that at 00z this will again have a pretty potent system and this time 'should' keep it at tomorrows 12z because now we have a invest and that should keep it on there. The CMC continues to make this a hurricane, with conditions possible this is certainly possible. NOGAPS also develops this system. GFS doesn't show much but I think because of the new upgrade to the para that the GFS might be having resolution problems. The SHIPS and DSHP take 90L to 81 knots, a near Category 2 hurricane.



If 90L manages to seperate from the ITCZ like the models are indicating, and takes advantage of the favorable conditions ahead I see no problem why 90L shouldn't become Tropical Storm Colin. I will not speculate on track nor intensity too much as we go out although I do believe this will go north of the islands per models. NHC gives 90L a LOW (20%) chance of development within the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, a vigorous tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, satellite images revel no signs of a circulation as of yet although in the last few frames it 'appears' to be trying to become better organized. Shear appears to be lessening as it comes towards a anti-cyclone in the Caribbean. We will have to watch it very closely once it reaches the WCARB it could become a problem.



Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.

CybrTed

All aboard the wave train 7/28/10

By: CybrTeddy, 5:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2010

Afternoon all! After a quiet week so far, the tropics appear to be getting active once again. There is not much to talk about in the tropical Atlantic right now.. however what is interesting is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa this afternoon generating some heavy convection. This wave is currently moving very slowly towards the west and should be watched for development, however I do not expect any immediate short term development thanks to a bit of dry air to the north. What's interesting though this is the first wave I've seen all year that has not only sustained convection coming off the African coast but has become better organized since I even last checked it, it has a fairly decent MLC getting going and looks to be trying to work down to the surface. ASCAT pass reveled a nearly-closed low a matter of fact. This wave bears watching, this wave appears to be the one the ECMWF and CMC develop into a near-Hurricane as it approaches the Caribbean. All models show some sort of development before 240 hours or 10 days out by the Cape Verde islands and this could certainly get interesting. The ECMWF takes this as what I would call a Caribbean cruiser, trucking west into the Caribbean where as the CMC begins to take this out to sea. The NOGAPS and the GFS are more in line with the ECMWF but not as strong it appears, the GFS being the least aggressive and the NOGAPS being the most. This needs to be watched closely, and wouldn't be a shocker to see invest 90L before weeks end.





Elsewhere, a tropical wave is spreading disorganized convection from 17N 61W to 6N 65W, ULL winds are unfavorable for development but could be worth watching once it reaches the WCARB.

The ITCZ is centered along 11N 13 and is generating some moderate amounts of convection.

Other than the African wave, tropical cyclone development is not anticipated in the next 72 hours.

CybrTed

Tropical development off Africa continues to be possible 7/26/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

Afternoon all! The tropics continue to be inactive, thanks to a slight downward MJO pulse across the Atlantic but there are some areas to watch the upcoming week. There is currently a nice flareup of thunderstorms just off the Yucatan border, this area has some good amount of convergence and divergence associated with it, however development is unlikely. No model support for this disturbance and it is monsoonal in development, being once it gets over the BOC it will run out of land and dissipate over Mexico before being able to develop a surface circulation, similar to 98L. I do not expect development out of this system but it is a feature to watch in the lull of activity we are experiencing currently. This lull won't last, every model is now at least hinting a tropical wave with a area of low pressure to develop off the coast of Africa in the 130-180 hour time frame. The 00z ECMWF doesn't really do much with the wave, other than shows increased 850 mb vorticity and kills it off. The CMC shows a borderline wave/TD, the GFS parallel shows a 1010 mb low with the system but doesn't look too organized with the convection being within the ITCZ. The GFS operational attempts to show a low and kills it off, the NOGAPS shows a Tropical storm in 84 hours. The setup is interesting to say the least, this is the time of year we would look for development off the African continent and should be watched closely, the Bermuda high is very strong and the long range GFS has been showing a very Ivan like system riding the ITCZ as a strong tropical storm. That scenario is unlikely to happen as its almost two weeks out, but its showing that conditions are favorable for something to develop.

Meanwhile, there is a tropical wave out in the CATL that the ECMWF is been 'hinting' and showing mischief still, this area was my main area of interest yesterday and the ECMWF has pretty much backed off on development, but this could be very similar to the way Bonnie formed as this low has a huge moisture field and is completely naked in convection. This low however won't have a problem with the ULL and will be interesting if this goes into the Caribbean as conditions will likely be favorable. I'd like to note that the shear in the Caribbean has been running well below average for almost two months, the TCHP has been very high too. This could get interesting.

Lets talk MJO, no not mojo, MJO or the Madden–Julian oscillation. The GFS earlier was prediction a very significant downward MJO pulse so strong it would have been pretty much impossible for convection to get going anywhere in the basin, it has backed off significantly showing yet again the return of MJO in the Atlantic.



The MJO propagation into other basins has already began to falter significantly, it can't break octant 3 as all the heat is stored in the Atlantic, much more so than in the other basins. La Nina has pretty much caused all the heat to go into the Atlantic and the anamolies in the Pacific are quite cool.



I think this scenario by the UKME will be the one verifying, you can see how the MJO falters like it is doing right now then quickly swings back to octant 1 and 2, which is where you would want to see it for the Atlantic.



I'm telling you guys this though, the ones who are dud-casting this season your going to be in for one heck of surprise. This season won't be a dud, its just not going to happen. We will see at LEAST 15 storms, which would be 5 storms above average and in my boat a very active season. We will not see 20+ named storms, if that where to happen we would have had to see 5 named storms by now, obviously we're above average but at 2. I think we're going to see 17 or 18, and the signals the Atlantic are sending us are quite disturbing.

CybrTed

Cape Verde development a real possibility 7/25/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2010

Afternoon all! My discussion today will be on a tropical wave emerging off Africa today, and is of particular interest to me. This wave currently is disorganized and is not a threat to develop however once it reaches 50W things could start getting interesting. This could be similar to pre-Bonnie, where you had a large tropical wave like this that was a completely naked swirl but once it get towards the moisture in the Caribbean we started seeing 97L flaring up with convection and soon enough we had Bonnie in the Bahamas. This could happen with this wave but in a more westward fashion, into the Caribbean. The ECMWF is trying to develop this wave and the 12z run yesterday as I posted was very interesting, where as the 00z run of the ECMWF shows a TD/WV in the Caribbean heading westward. Unlike Bonnie, conditions will be very favorable for this wave and TCHP is very high in the Caribbean, much higher than last year. The ECMWF is starting to show the much needed consistency that you'd like to see for tropical cyclone development.



Then we have the GFS parallel to worry about, it has been very consistent with developing a wave off Africa. Today's 12z run was interesting, it has by 160 hours or so a tropical wave almost immediately as soon as it hits the water developing into a tropical cyclone on the very end of this week, Saturday. We're getting to that time of year which a scenario like this is increasingly likely. If I had to say gang, all hell is about to break loose in the Atlantic where we could see storms getting increasingly deadly and destructive as time goes on.



CybrTed

Bonnie dies, tropical trouble ahead 7/24/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie is no more, killed due to wind shear. The ULL did it in, and this ends my discussion on the system.



000
WTNT33 KNHC 242034
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1011
MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A FEW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


Elswhere, there isn't really much to talk about. There are a few tropical waves in the Atlantic but nothing too serious. However that being said, we need to pay attention to a particular wave emerging off Africa. While it is not a threat to develop this week, the ECMWF has been somewhat consistent the past few days with developing this wave once it reaches the Caribbean and makes it a tropical system. This wave will likely be the same crossing the Atlantic this week as Bonnie was, a naked swirl but this time it will be heading towards the Caribbean rather than Florida. It begins developing the wave by the 1st of August and takes it westward towards Central America. This needs to be watched closely, as TCHP and SST's in the ECMWF's storm path is very high and could favor some significant intensification. We're getting to the time of year that storms will develop in this fashion and could cause serious amounts of damage. In two weeks, all hell will break loose in the Atlantic and we will start seeing storm after storm, each becoming more destructive than the last and should continue that way into August.



CybrTed

Watching Bonnie and other mischief 7/23/10

By: CybrTeddy, 5:25 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

Afternoon all! I will begin with Tropical Storm Bonnie first. Bonnie is currently centered overland in Florida currently moving WNW at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 40 mph expected to peak at 50 mph before landfall in the next couple of days. Bonnie is a highly disorganized system right now, with on visible you can actually see the Low Level Circulation (LLC) poking out of the convection, a sign of shear inhibiting any development. We are getting this shear from a absolutely massive Upper Level Low (ULL) that takes up almost the entire Gulf of Mexico, this is not allowing for breathing space for Bonnie and might even open her back up into a Tropical Wave in that case it would be unlikely Bonnie would ever regenerate. This system is very tricky to predict, if the ULL backs away enough it could allow for additional strengthening of Bonnie. It continues like the way it is currently, it is likely as previously mentioned Bonnie will die over the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center expects the ULL to back away enough from Bonnie to allow for some additional strengthening, although very slight. Bonnie is not a significant threat for winds, but it could cause heavy flooding over the next several days. We got lucky with Bonnie yet again, if it wasn't for that ULL we would right now be talking about a Category 2 hurricane heading towards the New Orleans area as possibly a high end Category 3 hurricane. We got VERY lucky indeed.





Elsewhere there are other area's of interest I would like to point out. The ECMWF is continuing to predict a tropical wave that might try to make a run at development in the next 72 hours, however it kills it off quickly thanks to Dust and shear that is currently off Africa. I don't entirely buy this scenario, as the wave won't run into higher shear for atleast 2 to 3 days after emerging off Africa. The ECMWF never developed Bonnie, so we must watch this wave. It is also possible for some homegrown development over the next couple of days, the ECMWF and GFS parallel both are showing that Bonnie's own remains might swing back into the Atlantic where a front is to be stationary out there causing little areas of low pressures along it, and both do show a low forming thanks to Bonnie's remnants. Will be interesting to see what happens with that, but I don't really expect development until more models jump on board but its certainly possible!





(ECMWF shows a low pressure area that might be worth watching out by Bremuda)

No tropical cyclones are expected to form over the next 48 hours.

CybrTed

97L becomes Tropical Storm Bonnie 7/22/10

By: CybrTeddy, 10:36 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Afternoon all! The infamous 97L that has been causing havoc in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has now shed its mask and relieved its actually Tropical Storm Bonnie, the 2nd named storm of the season. Bonnie has moderate-strong convection currently over it and shear continues to drop. I have to admit, I am highly surprised with the models.. they never developed Bonnie especially the ECMWF, and when I look at the situation in the whole I have to throw out global models and go with the SHIPS on Bonnie. Current satellite images show an organizing tropical storm with potential to reach 60-65 mph before a landfall either in the Florida keys or in the Florida mainland. Bonnie certainly is a very hard to predict situation, as we've already seen the models as unreliable. I personally believe that if the ULL lifts out more and Bonnie stays stationary, there is a possibility that south Florida could be looking at a 75 mph Hurricane. There is also the possibility that the ULL could come closer to Bonnie and impart stronger shear and more dry air, killing the system. I believe the likely scenario is that Bonnie will moderately intensity over the next couple of days into a 50-60 mph Tropical Storm with a landfall in the Florida keys then into the Gulf, where its anybodies guess what happens next as I certainly do not know.



All eyes in the Bahamas, and Florida need to keep a close eye on this system. Southern Florida should expect strong winds and very heavy rains that should cause flight cancellations, and ruin your vacation if your on one. Its best to be prepared in my opinion, have your family check on your emergency supplies and make sure your generator is up to stats, even though you should have had all this done a long time ago. One of our bloggers, Patrap, has great info on Hurricane preparedness and I suggest you talk to him about it.

SPECIAL UPDATE 98L

By: CybrTeddy, 10:35 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

Afternoon all and what a Afternoon it is! The tropics are finally becoming active. An area in the BOC has become Tropical Invest 98L, GOES shows a quickly organizing system with a good anticyclone and good amount of convection over the system. This system is currently heading NW-WNW and should be overland in 66 hours or so, which is a lot of time to develop into a Tropical cyclone. I must admit this caught me by surprise. I totally ignored the BOC in my last update, I didn't think the disturbance that is now 98L would have a chance to develop. It actually currently is much better organized than 97L even is. This area as potential to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, and 97L Tropical Storm Colin. 98L as mentioned as a good anticyclone over it, this is providing great outflow and great breathing room plus with 28C SST's under it, this system could quickly organized. Area's in Mexico should watch 98L closely, as this has potential to be similar to Tropical Storms Gert, Jose, and Bret all in 2005.







I will have a much deeper analyzes of the system tomorrow.

CybrTed

Disorganized 97L a threat later this week 7/21/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:54 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

Morning all! There has been interesting developments with 97L since my last update. 97L pulled together nicely yesterday but today has suddenly become disorganized. Limited convection around the COC and the National Hurricane Center has dropped 97L from 70% to 60% and I suspect they will drop it to 50% by 2 pm if 97L does not make a turn for the better. I was actually not too surprised about this turn of developments, yesterday when I was looking at the 850 mb vort and I saw that it was trending close to Hispaniola, I had a feeling that the weak and fragile circulation became disrupted today thanks to that plus with some moderate shear and dry air to the east is not helping the system generate convection. That being said, it is still fairly likely that 97L will be Tropical Depression 3 by Friday afternoon in my opinion. What I believe is going to happen is that the ULL that is causing shear and dry air to go into the circulation is already beginning to push out to the W and should be far enough for shear to not be such a big deal nor dry air. 97L is already meandering away from Hispaniola with decent amount of 850 mb vort, and convergence and divergence. I see no reason if the ULL kicks out on time that this shouldn't develop into Bonnie. Its a very interesting set up today, and we need to be patient, something unfortunately a lot of bloggers seem to not have.


(Current satellite image of 97L)

I suspect that 97L will eventually either hit Miami and weaken to a moderate TS in the best case scenario, that would have less time to re-organize in the Gulf of Mexico and only into a strong TS or a weak Category 1 hurricane. The worst case scenario is what now the models are leaning at, that 97L could eventually thread the straight between Florida and Cuba without any land interaction and strengthen into a much stronger system than I expected. This scenario is certainly possible and we need to watch for any changing developments. This situation is dynamic and even dangerous especially right now for Hispaniola which could see dangerous mudslides.


(models for 97l, trending in a more southward direction)

I will have an update today if 97L becomes more organized.

CybrTed

97L organizing, 7/20/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2010

Good morning everyone! My discussion today will be all on 97L, a vigirous wave located at about 19.0N 65.8W Moving in a W-WNW fashion. Satellite images such as from GOES-E show a system much better organized this morning, which shear starting to lesson over the system to a respectable 10 knots over it however shear of 40 knots is hampering outflow from the system, making for less convection on the northern side. 97L is in my opinion a big threat for the United States if it manages to overcome the shear which is certainly likely. All of the models indicate that 97L will take a WNW fashion either into South Florida as a moderate-strong TS and then into the highly warm and favorable Gulf of Mexico and right over the Deep Horizon Oil Spill in that area too. All intensity models bring 97L into a strong TS to minimal hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico. The GFDL completely looses 97L by sending it SW. This scenario is unlikely, and the HWRF brings it into South Florida and emerges it just south of Tampa as a 80 mph Hurricane which is also unlikely as it shows strengthening overland and then hits it for a 2nd Florida landfall in the Panhandle as a Category 2. While this scenario is certainly unlikely, this system has the potiental for mischief in the Gulf over the next couple of days. I am not sure of the intensity and track 97L will take, other than it should head towards the Florida Keys over the next several days.


Most recent model run on 97L


Satellite image of 97L.

I currently give 97L a medium chance, 50%, of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours or so once it reaches into a area of much more favorable conditions, higher SST's in the Bahamas. The Gulf Coast and Florida should watch this system over the next couple of days as it moves WNW. In my personal opinion, I do believe 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie.

CybrTed

Watching 97L and the Caribbean 7/19/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

Good morning everyone! My discussion today will focus on two AOI's that have some potential over the next several days, first of all the most concerning is 97L, 97L at its current state is disorganized with a large cluster of strong to moderate thunderstorms is about at 19.2 65.0W moving to the WNW at about 10 knots. GOES-E Satellite shows my thinking of the system, it's convection is not being self sustained by the system itself rather than by the TUTT near by the system itself that is also creating shearing winds that is prohibiting organization. Right now this TUTT is the main problem for development in the future, if 97L cannot manage to get passed the TUTT it will be sheared into the back of our memeories, that being said it is also just as likely that this system will get by the TUTT and start to really organize by the time it goes through either Florida or the Florida straights in 80 hours or so. By then shear should decrease to a nice 5-6 knots which is very favorable for development. This system also will be going across Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that are at or almost at 30C, which could allow for some decent amount of strengthening. The CMC, NOGAPS, and the NAM both develop 97L and the GFS parallel shows a system nearing TD status in the Gulf. It is entirely possible that this system could become Bonnie once it heads into the Florida straights and into the Gulf of Mexico and at that point it could become a concern for the surrounding areas. I currently give 97L a 40% chance of development in 72 hours, as by 72 hours it will begin reaching an area of lower shear and chances of development will be higher. The National Hurricane Center currently gives 97L a LOW (20%) chance of development in the next 48 hours which his completely reasonable as shear in the next 48 hours will remain at 20 knots or so.



Elsewhere, we have a tropical wave in the Caribbean that is generating moderate amounts of convection in that area. This area has some potental for development, but I cannot find any indication that there is a surface circulation or for that matter any pressure falling that would indicate a development into a stronger system. Still, this system should be watched as it heads into the BOC over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a LOW (20%) chance of development in the next 48 hours and I predict the same thing for the next 72 hours. None of the models develop this feature.



CybrTed

Watching a Tropical wave 7/18/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2010

Morning all! My discussion today will be on first a tropical wave located at about 18N, 60W just to the East of the Islands. Satellite shows a very disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms heading in a WNW fashion and should bring squally weather to the Islands tonight and into tomorrow. Conditions currently over the wave are poor, with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) situated over the Islands and into the tropical Atlantic shearing the system with winds of 30-40 knots, very unfavorable for development. None of the models develop this tropical wave, which is very interesting to say the least although they don't kill it off they keep it a strong borderline Wave/TD from north of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Mexico. If the models just killed it off that would mean that the TUTT would have gotten to it and it never recovered, but the models do not show that. Conditions ahead of the TUTT are favorable, and SST's off Florida and in the Bahamas are very warm at the moment and this wave really needs to be watched, the models could very well have a fudge up in intensity on this wave. If this wave however develops a low level circulation, higher vorticity, and pressures start dropping I am sure the models will then pick up a tropical cyclone and in that case this wave would have to be watched very, very closely for Bonnie. I will give this wave a 20% chance of development in 72 hours, solely because lack of model support and the TUTT. We will have to watch this wave closely for development, I'm not wishcasting when I say that this wave might go into the Gulf of Mexico and conditions are more favorable there than they are out in the Atlantic so we could see development there as well.





A tropical wave is along the eastern Caribbean along 10N 70W is moving at about 10 knots and is helping to create convection just south of Hispaniola and should move into the W. Caribbean Monday or Tuesday. Development is not expected.

Another tropical wave in the western Caribbean at about 11N 80W is generating some convection and has a broad area of low pressures. No development is expected as it hits the Yucatan later tonight.



A tropical wave moving off Africa today is very well organized and some models have been hinting at development there, so we will have to watch that as well.


Tropical Cyclone development is not expected through Tuesday.

CybrTed




The Congress's Space Bill. 7/17/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:16 AM GMT on July 18, 2010

First non-weather related blog in my series of updates. I wanted to inform blogger of the senate bill currently being passed by Congress to help the space program out from its looming depression. Its an extremely rare bill that has near-unanimous support from both parties. The bill does as follows. Here's the basics:

Link
It’s a 3-year bill, authorizing FY2011-2013
- Over that period, the 3-year total funding for commercial crew is cut 66%, from $3.3B to $1.2B
- The FY2011 funding is explicitly not to begin the program, but only to expand CCDev and conduct a number of studies
- There are at least 6 separate studies and reports that NASA must do before a full Commercial Crew program would move forward.
- Orion is fully revived as a crew exploration vehicle
- An extra shuttle flight is added
- A shuttle-derived heavy-lift development is called for, starting immediately
- To pay for these additions, exploration technology is cut 90%. OCT technology is cut 50%.

Warner Amendment One (”commercial crew/close the gap amendment”):

This amendment proposed by Senator Warner of Virginia would close the gap by fully reversing cuts to commercial crew development funding and by removing arbitrary restrictions preventing a commercial crew competition from beginning in 2011. The amendment would boost commercial crew funding to the level recommended by the President, adding $2.1 billion over three years, a nearly threefold boost. This will close the gap and ensure U.S. access to the International Space Station.

Boxer Amendment One (”technology and robotics amendment”):

This amendment proposed by Senator Barbara Boxer of California would restore cuts to robotic precursor missions, advanced technologies like fuel depots, in-space propulsion, and radiation shielding, and university research. In FY11, the amendment boosts Robotic Precursors by 130%, Exploration Technology Demonstrations by 230%, and the Space Technology Program by 55%, for a total of $356 million more for technology and robotics in FY11.

Udall Amendment One (”commercial suborbital science amendment”):

This amendment proposed by Senator Tom Udall of New Mexico would bolster a small but high-profile program, designed to allow students, small companies, and researchers to fly experiments on-board new commercial suborbital space vehicles such as Virgin Galactic or XCOR Aerospace. The amendment would ensure that this program, known as Commercial Reusable Suborbital Research (CRuSR), would be fully funded at $15 million per year and report directly to NASA’s Chief Technology Office to give it high-profile status.


STS-135
The Congress's new plans include funding for an extra space shuttle flight, STS-135, this mission would be the 33rd and final voyage of Space Shuttle Atlantis. This mission would be highly unique, as it would feature the least amount of crew on a space shuttle with only 4 since 1983 due to there being no launch on need for this mission, as there would be no more tanks, if Atlantis is struck during launch by foam the 4 man crew will wait until a Soyuz docks to rescue them. This would be the 135th and last mission of the US Space Shuttle.



Shuttle replacement: DIRECT or Sidemount.


This bill includes funding for perhaps the most critical thing missing from Obama's space plan: A replacement for the space shuttle. This vehicle would be a SDLV (Shuttle Derived Launch vehicle) And would either be a rocket of these two:


The inline 'DIRECT Jupiter' rocket.



Or sidemount. Either way, both would be fairly cheep Heavy Lift launch vehicles and great benefits towards the work force and closing the gap with the first operational mission in 2016, we could see test flights as early as 2013 in some figures if when the bill passes we begin working on October 1st as promised. In that case, with the shuttle retiring in 2011 the gap would be reduced to 2 years rather than 10.

Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

The only vehicle that will survive the Project Constellation cancellation is the Orion spacecraft, which in itself is very similar to the Apollo spacecraft and will require new workforces, new materials and very similar design processing. We could see flights in 2015 with the Orion spacecraft if we get to work ASAP on the HLV. Obama's previous plan had this canceled, then it had it as a unrealistic rescue vehicle.


This will be the first in my 5 discussions on the subject of America's space program.

CybrTed

Atlantic disturbed but quiet 7/17/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:57 PM GMT on July 17, 2010

Afternoon all! My discussion today mostly dominates on two areas of interest in the Atlantic that have some interest in me. The NHC has dropped the 10% on the area in the SW Caribbean and model support has backed off on the area, however that doesn't mean we won't see a system of some sort there. The whole area of the Caribbean is covered in disturbed weather, and with low shear, high SSTs and TCHP it is hard to believe other than model support that something might not be able to get going there. Model support is very helpful in forecasting a developing system but then again Claudette formed with little model support. I don't really expect development from the Caribbean area unless models begin to jump on it.


(Caribbean as of most recent, a lot of thunderstorms in the area)

My second area of interest is off the Lesser Antilles, and the latest TWD took heavy interest into the wave but wasn't mentioned in the TWO. Here's what they have to say:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 47/48W FROM 8N TO 19N. THE WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD
AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A
NARROW BAND...EXHIBITING CYCLONIC CURVATURE CONSISTING OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 12N48W WHERE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURE OF THE DAY SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31N. THIS
WAVE WILL REACH 55W TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON.

This has a small chance of development, but there is a TUTT near by so development for the short term seems unlikely to me. Plus there is quite a bit of dry air around the system inhibiting development.



The ECMWF is trying to develop a CV system in about 48 hours. I doubt that I will really go in debt with this scenario unless it really gets model support, the ECMWF is very reliable however. I apologize for the short update.

CybrTed

Watching out for possible Caribbean mischief 7/15/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:29 PM GMT on July 15, 2010

Afternoon all! My discussion will be brief today but I hope you enjoy it. A disturbance has developed in the SW Caribbean, albeit highly disorganized it is generating convection around what appears to be a developing low. This does not exactly mean development, other than we might see a watchable low pressure center develop within the next 24-48 hours of this post. What's interesting though is that we're starting to see some models 'come out of the closet' as I would say with this system. The ECMWF picks up the low in 48 hours or so with a 1010 mb low and some convection and takes it WNW into Central America. NOGAPS has been highly consistent with developing a TS in the Caribbean taking it WNW also into Central America but doesn't kill it off and keeps it stronger. CMC shows a brief low pressure center developing before killing it off, GFS parallel develops a TD/TS and takes it WNW before killing it off as well. I see no reason to doubt that a low pressure center will develop but the question remains if it will have enough time to organize before hitting Central America. The disturbance is in a area of relatively weak steering currents and will meander but should eventually head WNW slowly.



We have good model consensus on a low that will form, the conditions in the Caribbean are good and I see no other reason other than land interaction that this disturbance shouldn't attempt to get its act together, unless its another TD2 or Alex type situation. Personally the genesis reminds me of Ida and Paloma.

CybrTed


Will 2010 truly be active? 7/14/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:24 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

Will the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season be truly active, even though we've had no storms in July? The answer is heck yes, and in fact July 2010 has already featured 2 storms, 1 Hurricane and 1 TD.

What about SAL?

SAL stands for Saharan Air Layer, it is the amount of dust that blows off Africa and goes into the Atlantic. SAL has been found to severely disrupt hurricane formation, sending dry air into the heart of the circulation and choking it off of its valuable moisture feed. SAL currently looks exactly like what one expect in July, we've just seen a Dust storm emerge off Africa and that has been choking our waves to death as they emerge off Africa, but these waves have had a strong affect on the SAL as they emerge, they gradually erode the SAL layer by moistening the environment. Basically these waves have been sacrificing themselves to moisten up the environment for the wave that will eventually produce a tropical cyclone. I am willing to bet that eventually we'll see a named storm by the CV islands by August 10th.

SAL 24 hours ago:


SAL now:


See how just one tropical wave was able to make a large moisture field? SAL shouldn't be a problem for future emerging waves as we head into the next two weeks and into the other half of July.

Shear?

Shear has remained average-below average in all parts of the basin especially the Caribbean where most powerful storms gain intensity. For example, take a look at these maps showing current shear vs what we'd normally see. Look at the time frame from Mid-May to now, that is when it usually matters for Hurricane season.

In the Gulf of Mexico, you can see a high spike in shear late June-early July thanks to the outflow of Hurricane Alex.


In the Caribbean, shear has continually remained average-below average trending well below average.


Off the East Coast, shear has remained average.


This is a La Nina year, so shear will not be too significant of a problem unless the TUTT doesn't lift out.

SST's and TCHP?

Heck yes! Dr. Jeff Masters has noted today that June SST anamolies are higher than they were in 2005, breaking that record. The amount of TCHP in the Caribbean especially is disturbing, same with the SST's. Hurricanes have so far had no problem with TCHP and will most likely continue to do so.

TCHP


SST's.


La Nina update

We are officially La Nina, some area's in the ENSO scale have fallen to -1.0C, a weak La Nina already.





CybrTed

Waves and woes 7/10/10

By: CybrTeddy, 6:52 PM GMT on July 10, 2010

Afternoon all! My discussion today will be on two primary area's of interest. My first discussion will be on a tropical wave emerging from Africa as we speak. It is very impressive, and has sustained convection as has gone over water so far. It's a very large wave to boot, so we'll have to watch it. However, we have seen many amounts of waves in the Atlantic like this that just poofed off do to the change from African terrain to water.. personally I believe the wave currently emerging will likely do the same thing as all those did. It is also low in latitude as the ITCZ remains lower than what we would normally want it to and waves like this usually tend to follow the ITCZ or entrain most of its convection to it. Conditions however are semi-favorable, shear's about 10-20 knots for the emerging wave which is marginal but decreases sharply to 5-10 knots ahead of the wave. Dust is pretty high too, but as long as it sustains convection and doesn't move north it shouldn't have a problem with it. No models are developing this wave, which surprises me seeing the conditions ahead and the current organization of it.


(current shear over the system)


(SAL's average, looks about what you would expect for June)

If this wave sustains convection, I'll likely say it has a 20% chance of development. Vigorous waves like this pose a threat if they don't develop down the road in the Caribbean. No models currently predict this either.

What the models are predicting however is a wave currently situated mid-way in Africa will develop into a tropical cyclone. The 00z ECMWF last night really wanted to develop this into a TD, and the GFS shows a TD as well. GFS does poor with Caribbean monsoonal like systems as we saw with TD2 and Alex however it has usually in the past done a little better with CV systems. ECMWF does great regardless, and has been showing persistence in this wave. ECMWF is obviously our most reliable model and has done great so far this system and did great last year with Bill particularly in track. SAL will be less and shear should be lower, so this system could develop later on in the game if more models pop onto it. CMC does show a wave, but kills it off quickly, NOGAPS is also on board with a wave. We'll defiantly have to watch this.

CybrTed

TD2 arrives, but never becomes Bonnie. 7/8/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

Afternoon everyone! 96L finally pulled it together leaving the cool wake and became Tropical Depression 2, but made landfall before ever become Tropical Storm Bonnie. There is not much to say about TD2, other than I can expect rapid weakening into a remnant low by 2 pm today with heavy amounts of rain over Texas and Mexico. Storms like TD2 and Alex are what you get when you have a large amount of heat buildup in the Caribbean, you get these large storms that take forever to develop with two or more circulations vying for dominance and once you get a dominate circulation these types of systems can take off. Yesterday all the vorticity became aligned over the MLC and it translated down to the surface and acquired a surface circulation. Then the cool wake of Alex is what inhibited development of TD2 into Bonnie, so TD2 made landfall just a TD. If TD2 was in the Caribbean still however I am confident this would have become a major problem, probably a hurricane, but just didn't materialize thankfully.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 081512
TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG





I will have another update today if there are major changes with TD2 or the 12z ECMWF again indicates CV development.

CybrTed

96L highly disorganized, CV storm possible, La Nina arrives. 7/7/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2010

Morning everyone! My first topic of discussion will be on 96L out in the Gulf of Mexico now. 96L is at its current state, highly disorganized with very limited convection around the center of circulation. This is because of low TCHP continent causing upwelling and the Yucatan itself which tore 96L apart pretty much yesterday while it was traversing it. Still, 96L has a chance to develop but it needs to get itself together quick. Right now some thunderstorms are developing around the COC so we'll have to watch to see if that is a sign of 96L pulling itself together again. Time is not on its side, and will make landfall tomorrow in Mexico or Texas. If 96L doesn't get any better organized today the chances are very slim for 96L ever becoming Bonnie. Right now I am inline with the NHC for development, a 40% chance in the next 36-48 hours. There are a lot of factors against 96L as I stated, most notatbly time. This is an example of how these WPAC type storms need such long time to pull together with multiple vorticies battiling it out for dominance over each other. The invest that became Alex, 93L, had much more time to work with and much warmer amounts of TCHP for it to come together like it did. Plus Alex's wake is in itself inhibiting 96L, as it left cool water behind it.


(TCHP as of July 6th, 2010)



Enter CV season?
The bell is beginning to ring on the CV season which promises to be severe and extreme. Already a invest back in mid-early June called '92L' nearly became Tropical Depression 1. 92L featured highly organized convection, circulation but wasn't able to sustain in front of a massive TUTT off the Caribbean that sheared 92L to death. 92L never really had much of a chance because of that TUTT, but the TUTT is going to eventually lift out allowing for some strong storms to form. The GFS parallel and the ECMWF develop some sort of CV low, while the GFS is much more aggressive than the ECMWF. The GFS parallel is far more reliable than the old GFS so I do give this credibility. We'll have to watch it.


La Nina arrives!

The first La Nina event since May 2007 has arrived! Nino 3.4 has fallen below the -0.5C mark and now is at -0.6C, which is La Nina. The La Nina is likely to increase in intensity as we go on and might become as strong as the one in 2007. La Nina event is likely to maintain to early 2011, and I'm going to go ahead and say it unless there are drastic changes.. 2011 also promises to be an active hurricane season.







CybrTed

96L: The one to watch. 7/4/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:52 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

My discussion mostly dominates 4 area's of interest, and they will be listed from least threat to greatest threat on this blog.


95L likely to not amount to nothing much


A non-tropical low is situated about 100 miles south of Louisiana. The system is very small and very weak, with cloud tops only in the -50C range which is very warm. I expect that 95L will not amount to much more than some rain for Louisiana. 95L should continue a WNW-NW direction in the next day or so before finally making landfall. No models develop 95L, increasing the unlikelihood that it amounts to much. The NHC current gives 95L a LOW 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.


(Most recent satellite image of 95L)

Bahamas disturbance a small threat to develop

My second discussion is on a area of convection to the east of Florida situated not to far off the Bahamas. Some of the models have been developing a trough split off Florida and developing it into at least a sub-tropical depression off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states. The system currently is very disorganized, with no organization to speak of what so ever but does has a chance as it gradually moves N-NE the next couple of days. I give this disturbance a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days.

Lesser Antilles disturbance a threat

A Highly amplified wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean. This wave current features a sharp V-shaped axis to it, a common structure of a very powerful wave and it can be seen also on ASCAT that it is very formidable. No models develop the Lesser Antilles disturbances at this time, however water temperatures are very warm ahead of this system and I suspect that this system once it goes farther NW (this system might actually enter the Bahamas, so we'll watch it or it might go into the Western Caribbean) that this could become either Bonnie or Colin. Its defiantly a wave we need to watch even though there is very little if no model support to support the system. I current give the Lesser Antilles disturbance a 30% chance of development.


96L: The one to watch

A strong wave in the Western Caribbean is a large threat to develop over the next couple of days called Invest 96L. 96L is a very large wave and reminds me currently a lot of the invest that became Hurricane Alex, 93L. The wave currently has strong model support from the ECMWF, which is very reliable and was dead on will all of 2009's systems and with even more so with Alex in terms of genesis and track was spot on through its entire lifetime. The most recent run of the ECMWF and the CMC show the possibility that 96L will go more north than Alex did, and might even thread the Yucatan Channel which would be very bad. The ridge however would force 96L back west towards Texas. It is however very earlier to speculate on track as the situation unfolds over the next couple of days. The wave currently is organizing quicker than 93L did as surface pressures are already falling and vort is stronger at the 850 mb level than through most of 93L's time. I currently give 96L a 50-60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone the next couple days. The NHC gives it a MEDIUM 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours.



The tropics are waking up gang!

CybrTed

Alex is gone, 95L a threat 7/2/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:03 PM GMT on July 02, 2010

Afternoon all! Alex is gone, made landfall last Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane. This will be my last discussion on the system. Elsewhere, centered right off Florida we have invest 95L in the Gulf of Mexico. 95L at its current state is very disorganized, with very high pressures up to 1015 mb over the system. Pressures aren't falling much over 95L, mostly due to the low itself being fairly weak. The reason this system was mentioned is however the fairly strong model support for 95L. The UKMET, GFS, CMC and the NAM all develop 95L into some sort of tropical system over the next several days. It is likely that some sort of potent low is going to develop with this system as it moves generally east the next couple of days. We're likely to have genesis if any by next Thursday the 8th just north of the BP oil spill then drift around in the Gulf of Mexico, causing substantial amounts of rainfall. The genesis of this system could be considered similar to that of Tropical Storm Edouard, although Edouard headed in a different direction that 95L is currently forecast to go. I give 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by next Friday.



ENSO Update






ENSO has continued to fall to the -0.41C category the last few weeks, and a La Nina event for 2010 seems a firm likely hood. I suspect that by late this month, we'll see La Nina and it could become as strong as the event in 2007.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS continue to develop a system in the BOC/Caribbean in a similar fashion to Alex. Both models have been very consistent with the system currently approaching the Caribbean and we will also have to watch this system. The tropics are waking up!



CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.