CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

SPECIAL UPDATE Hurricane Earl 8/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 12:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

Good morning everyone and welcome to my special update this morning! Earl has become the seasons 3rd hurricane, located at 17.1°N 57.7°W, maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph with higher gusts and Earl could become a borderline Category 1/2 hurricane as it hits the Leeward Islands. Residents in Puerto Rico also need to take whatever steps necessary to prepare for a possible strike from Hurricane Earl. If anyone in the Leeward Islands or Puerto Rico reads this blog please take whatever precautions possible to prepare for Hurricane Earl, I've been in Category 1 hurricanes and they are no joke. Satellite image shows a organized hurricane with good spiral banding slightly suppressed on the northern side of the system but does not appear to be a factor for further intensification into a major hurricane after it passes through the islands.







I will have a bigger update later today on Earl, Danielle, and 97L.

I apologize for the short update

CybrTed

Hurricane Danielle hits Category 4, Earl, 97L need to be watched.

By: CybrTeddy, 10:45 PM GMT on August 27, 2010

Good afternoon everyone! What a day in the tropics it is, I haven't recalled this level of activity since August of 2008. Hurricane Danielle has become our first major hurricane of the season as expected, however I was not expecting it to reach the strength it is currently at now. Current location is 27.3°N 60.3°W, maximum sustained winds are 135 mph making Danielle a highly respectable Category 4 hurricane. I must admit I was only expecting Danielle to hit Category 3 status before either a EWRC (Eyewall replacement cycle) took place or dry air got really wrapped into its core. Tropical Storm watches are up for Bermuda, which means tropical storm conditions are possible in the next 72 hours for that area. Satellite shows Danielle a extremely powerful hurricane, with a circular 20nm eye and a large wind radius. Danielle is just another sign of the highly active 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season to come.



Danielle's going out to sea, there is a trough off the east coast that is already making sure that it shouldn't make a direct hit on Bermuda although the outer edge of tropical storm force winds from Danielle might affect the island in a few days time as it passes to the east. It also appears Danielle has probably peaked in intensity as it appears that a EWRC is about to take place. It is possible that Danielle might hit 140 mph before weakening, but it is highly unlikely Danielle will become a Category 5 hurricane unless something drastic occurs overnight.

Then we have Tropical Storm Earl, currently located at 15.8°N 46.0°W, maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph and is moving due west at 17 knots (20mph) and should remain to do so over the next few days. Satellite revels a fairly unorganized tropical cyclone with deep convection but little organization too it thanks to dry, stable air surrounding the system.



Earl's going to probably go out to sea like Danielle however, but it could strike Bermuda directly or go west of it. It also poses a small threat to the east coast of the CONUS. Earl will also probably become our 3rd Hurricane of the season, possibly our second major hurricane too. Earl needs to be watched closely over the next few days.

Then we have 97L, that's a threat. I can tell you that right now. Most of the models are showing that the trough that will recuve Danielle and maybe even Earl might not recurve 97L which has potential to become another Hurricane. While it is very early to speculate on where 97L will go and how strong 97L will get it is very possible that 97L will go much more west than Earl and Danielle, and has potential to threaten the south eastern United states in the next few days as it moves westward. The GFS's latest run is now starting to show a 4th system behind 97L at 90 hours or so.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season's true colors are showing.

CybrTed

Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl 8/25/10

By: CybrTeddy, 8:43 PM GMT on August 25, 2010

Afternoon all! Wow, someone turned the switch on in the Atlantic! We now have two tropical cyclones, Hurricane Danielle which is a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane (yesterday Danielle peaked at Category 2 status) and newly formed Tropical Storm Earl just declared a few minutes ago.

Hurricane Danielle in the Tropical Atlantic.

Hurricane Danielle is once again organizing, based on the fact stronger cloudtops have formed and a eye feature has developed over the past few hours. Danielle is currently located at 21.2°N 53.1°W, maximum sustained winds remain at 85 mph with gusts higher and Danielle is likely to approaching Major hurricane status in 96 hours or so while it begins to recurve to the North.



Track for Danielle

Hurricane Danielle is now a problem for Bermuda, and Bermuda could see tropical storm watches before too long as it appears they could get some part of this hurricane, whether it makes a direct hit remains to be seen at this time. After that we have a problem now, as some of the models begin to shift Danielle to the WNW, towards the Virgina coastline. I still think this is unlikely to happen at this time as the trough should begin to deflect it out to sea. We shall see what happens.



Earl named in the Tropical Atlantic, a problem down the road


Tropical Depression 7 has become Tropical Storm Earl, the 5th named storm of the active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite images show an organizing system with decent convection and light shear around it, based on this I predict steady intensification over the next few days as Earl heads westward over the next few days. While Earl at this time is not a threat to the United States it is a threat down the road. Conditions in the next few are very favorable for intensification and Earl will probably become our 3rd Hurricane of the season. Earl is a big threat down the road as there will be a ridge in place that could push it towards the United States.

I'll have a longer update later.

CybrTed

SPECIAL UPDATE Danielle and 96L 8/23/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:44 PM GMT on August 23, 2010

Afternoon all! I wasn't expecting to do another update today but Danielle has recently developed a eye-like feature and a partial eyewall and 96L has been declared off the African coast. I'll start with Danielle, the National Hurricane Center shows Danielle now at 15.1°N 39.4°W, maximum sustained winds are now at 65 mph and Danielle could become a Hurricane later today. Satellite shows a banding eye starting to take shape and convection still remaining strong, with some cloudtops as cool as -80C. I suspect if this doesn't become a hurricane today it will do so tomorrow and could become our first major of the season pending shear. My forecast remains the same as it was on my previous update earlier today.







96L has now also been declared off the African coastline this afternoon as well. Satellite shows 96L starting to become better organized with each frame, with a vigorous Mid-Level circulation. The ECMWF and GFS still continue to develop this into a tropical storm before either hitting stronger wind shear or being disrupted by then Hurricane Danielle. 96L has some potential to either follow Danielle out to sea or it may even feel the ridge build back in and head more westward. This has potential to become Earl over the coming days. Stay tuned!



CybrTed

Danielle strengthening 8/23/10

By: CybrTeddy, 12:43 PM GMT on August 23, 2010

Good morning everyone and welcome to my daily update! The tropics are finally starting to get active but first I will talk about our intensifying Tropical Storm Danielle currently located at 14.8°N 37.1°W, maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph with higher gusts and could become a Hurricane by Tuesday night. Latest satellite images show a organizing system as the anti-cyclone has begun slipping southward over the circulation but still is imparting some shear on the eastern side of the circulation, and is on the edge of the convection at this time but is completely covered. The system is currently moving towards the WNW or 300 degrees at 14 mph.


(current satellite image of Danielle)

How strong will Danielle get?

The Intensity forecast is pretty speculative right now and it all depends on whether it can fully get the anti-cyclone over it which it appears to be doing right now. I do see gradual strengthening today to a 65 mph system, possibly even 70 mph. Another inhibitor will be dry air to the west that could get into the circulation and disrupt it some, but it appears at this time dry air won't be that big of a factor seeing as Danielle has a pretty big moisture field. The intensity models predict shear will increase in 92 hours or so, causing either some weakening or level off in intensification but then starting to intensify again into a major hurricane.



Where will Danielle go?


Nothing right now is more speculative than the forecast track and it all depends on two things. One the troughs emerging off the east coast that should deflect it out to sea and two how strong Danielle will get before feeling the trough and heading out to sea. I think Danielle will be a Category 2 hurricane when it starts feeling the affects of the trough and begins to lift northward but there is as usual some inconsistencies in the models on where Danielle will make that turn. Will it be more west or more east? Bermuda still needs to keep a close eye on this system in that case.


What else is behind Danielle?

A strong tropical wave called PGI34L has emerged off Africa and is already showing signs of organization. The ECMWF and GFS our two most reliable models are developing this wave over the coming days and should be far enough from Danielle to have its own breathing room. Danielle has cleared out the SAL pretty much so it will all come down to the shear in front of it that helped shear Danielle. It is not out of the question that this becomes our next system down the road. It is too early to speculate on where PGI34L will go.



CybrTed

Tropical Storm Danielle likely to become our 2nd Hurricane 8/22/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

Good afternoon everyone! Invest 95L yesterday became Tropical Depression 6 and now has become Tropical Storm Danielle, the 4th named storm of the season. Danielle is starting to become better organized at the moment, very deep convection around -80C has developed around the circulation and satellite estimates have gone up accordingly. Earlier today however the circulation became exposed completely but the blow up as I mentioned earlier has caused it to completely go under the convection. It is likely that Danielle will strengthen further and become a hurricane by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday at this point. The cyclone is currently located 13.4°N 35.1°W, maximum sustained winds are 40 mph and pressure is down to a respectable 1005 mb. The cyclone is currently predicted to become a Category 2 hurricane and has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane beyond 120 hours from now. The ECMWF, CMC, GFS continue to predict that this will become a very powerful Hurricane, the ECMWF is even showing a Category 5 hitting Bermuda in 240 hours. This prediction however must be dealt with caution as it is very rare to get a Category 5 hurricane that far north in latitude. I do for one see this becoming a Category 3 but the intensity models are seeing that shear might begin to increase shear with the TUTT as Danielle crosses it, causing only gradual strengthening.


(Current satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle)

The track is very uncertain at this point but it does appear that Danielle will recurve into the Atlantic as a potent Hurricane. Bermuda however needs to keep a very close eye on this as it could cause problems for them, especially if the ECMWF ends up verifying in intensity and track. The North East also might be wise to keep a close eye out on Danielle over the next couple of days especially if the ridge builds back in after the trough goes out, it could be forced westward. Right now that appears slim and it is unlikely at this time that Danielle will ever effect the United States.



CybrTed

95L developing into a tropical cyclone 8/21/10

By: CybrTeddy, 6:14 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Good afternoon everyone! My update is going to be short as I have some nasty weather barring down on me and I'll have to turn off the computer. It appears 95L's starting to develop into a tropical cyclone, spiral banding is noted in most quadrants and convection has become more concentrated and stronger as the day has gone on. The ECMWF, CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, GGEM, HWRF, GFDL all develop this into a tropical cyclone, and most of them develop this into a very strong hurricane too. The National Hurricane center had this at 30% earlier but has since raised the odds of development to 60% which I'd place a little higher, at 70% in the next 48 hours.


(satellite image shows a organizing system)

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I will have a further update later tonight or tomorrow, I apologize for the shorter update.

CybrTed.

95L a threat to develop over the weekend 8/20/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:06 PM GMT on August 20, 2010

Good morning everyone! The tropics have once again waken up with invest 95L just south of the Cape Verde islands at 110N, 260W for those tracking along. It is currently moving in a due west course at about 8 knots. Satellite revels a system trying to develop with good outflow, moderate shear, and SAL to the north that doesn't appear to be a serious problem at this time for development. I see no reason why 95L shouldn't become TD6 over the upcoming days and eventually Danielle. SHIPS currently takes 95L up to Category 2 status and the IVCN takes it to Category 3 borderline Category 4 status over the next couple of days. Based on the shear forecast with a anti-cyclone predicted to develop over 95L I see no reason why 95L can't become a powerful tropical cyclone. Every single model develops this system, most of them take it to major hurricane status so it bares watching but is not a threat to land at this time.


(Satellite image of 95L, a very large invest)



The track right now is of course hard to predict, but I do think that 95L could take a very similar path to Hurricane Bill of last year, perhaps even a little lower in latitude even. Most of the models take this out to sea, thanks to a trough in place off the East coast of the United States that should steer it out to no mans land and become extra-tropical. However, there is also the possibility that the Caribbean 'could' be grazed by this system, especially if it moves more south than predicted which might happen if 95L stays weaker then begins to ramp up as it approaches the islands while going north.



I will continue to monitor 95L as the days go on.

CybrTed

Cape Verde development very possible by end of week 8/18/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

Morning everyone! The models continue to develop a Cape Verde system in the next few days and we have two new pouches to track, PGI31L and PGI33L (pic 1). It is curious to know how these waves might interact over the coming days as the GFS is saying that PGI33L will get absorbed into PGI31L and THEN develop into a very potent tropical cyclone and the NOGAPS supports this scenario. However, the ECMWF and CMC are saying that its vice versa, that PGI31L will get absorbed by PGI33L and then develop into a very potent tropical cyclone. I think what the ECMWF and CMC are showing might be what is going to happen because the wave coming off Africa is very impressive right now and has potential over the coming days to really pull into gear. There is a good chance that the GFS and NOGAPS are correct too, especially if PGI33L becomes much less impressive as the day goes on.


(pic 1 showing the moisture field with the two pouches)

It is pretty speculative right now on what track said tropical cyclone will take but a weakness might develop as the cyclone traverses the Atlantic thanks to a trough that might guide it out to sea. This would support the ECMWF and the long range version of the CMC. However, the GFS and the NOGAPS are predicting a much more western track for said system, the GFS going as far as predicting a Category 3/4 Hurricane hitting the Caribbean and Puerto Rico before going just to the East of the United States. That track is very likely to change though and I doubt it will ever materialize. Right now it is simply a wait and see as the days go on when it comes to track. The intensity is hard to predict, but I do think that it is very possible our 2nd Hurricane of the season will form out of this area that I'm talking about. While track is divided, all models take this system to atleast strong Tropical storm Status. The GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF show a Major hurricane and that is very possible with SAL dying down as it has thanks to pouch invest PGI30L (pic 2)



Also, I want to say something about the rest of the season and how the season so far has been relatively average with the obvious exception of Hurricane Alex. Right now we are at a total of 3 named, and 1 hurricane. The ECMWF released predictions a few days ago saying that after September 1st the season will see 13 more named storm. In the event we get Danielle before August closes out (likely) and maybe even Earl that would put us at 4 or 5 named storms. Add 13 to that number and you get a possibility of 17-18 named storms this season. In the event the ECMWF is off two or one storms that gets you down to 15-16 named, that's 2008 level activity folks. This season is not going to be inactive, if it wasn't for the ULLs (which have drastically died off in commonality) and for the TUTT we'd right now be at 8 storms. Had TD2 and TD5 developed we'd be waiting for Fiona right now. The effects on land are the same regardless of named or not.

CybrTed.

The parade of storms is about to begin 8/17/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:11 PM GMT on August 17, 2010

Good morning everyone! 05L failed to develop, due to the Upper Level high that was over 05L when it was over land not moving with 05L. That caused 20 knot shear on the eastern side of the circulation and tore it apart. This is my last discussion on the system.

However, the Atlantic is about to see a real ramp up in activity. For days now the models have been predicting that a strong tropical wave will produce a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, and have continued to do so since my last update. The GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles, GGEM, CMC, and the NOGAPS all predict a tropical wave (I do not think PGI30L is going to be this system anymore) currently over Africa will develop into a big problem.

GFS 06z run has a Hurricane hitting Virgina


ECMWF 00z run has a Category 3/4 Hurricane going towards Bermuda


ECMWF 00z Ensembles has it much more south and weaker (rare to see a strong system on the Ensembles anyways)


NOGAPS 00z doesn't go as far out as the ECMWF and GFS but shows a low developing into a moderate Tropical Storm.


GGEM 00z..



(satellite image of the wave predicted to develop)

Need I say more. The likely hood of this happening is fairly strong today and I do feel that this and possibly even a second system might develop over the coming days.

I apologize for the short update.

CybrTed

ex-TD5 and African wave need to be closely watched 8/15/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:31 PM GMT on August 15, 2010

Good morning everyone! The tropics have once again started to wake up the past few days and I will start off with our old friend Tropical Depression 5 which made landfall over Louisiana a few days ago as a trough of low pressure. What has happened is very unusual since then, the remains of TD5 have done a loop over the southern United States over the weekend and now appears poised to re-emerge into the Gulf coast off the Panhandle of Florida and likely to once again become a tropical cyclone. Already the outer edge is reaching the water and we're starting to see a huge blowup in convection just south of the Panhandle. It appears likely that TD5 will emerge back over the Gulf of Mexico later tonight and could quickly become better organized as it moves southward. However how much better organized it becomes depends on how south it moves as if it does that it will have more time over water once it gets pushed back westward into Louisiana. It does appear right now that TD5 will have a total of 36-40 hours to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone. The conditions that will be in place for TD5 are much more favorable than when it was in the Gulf last time as you had a large Upper Level Low (ULL) eating away at TD5 and plunging in a large amount of dry air before it degenerated into a area of low pressure. This time around the ULL is long gone, and you have a upper level high in place over TD5 that will move southward with the system and give it good breathing room. Plus with that you will have Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) up to 31C which is extremely warm. Right now its a wait and see but I do foresee TD5 coming back from the dead with a vengeance. All models develop this into a tropical cyclone.


(Floater image of TD5 emerging into the Gulf)


(you can see the Upper Level High I was talking about giving TD5 very favorable conditions and outflow)

Now we have PGI30L that I talked about in my previous update. Right now the wave has lost most of its convection which means little to none about how it will react over water. Right now PGI30L has a very impressive MLC with it and once it emerges it could by Thursday become a tropical depression. You may look at the SAL map and say 'holy crap! No way that wave is going to make it!' well you will have to look and watch. See the Eastern edge of the SAL? It is being eroded by a large moisture field which is associated with the area around PGI30L. This should give the system less problems with SAL and a better chance to develop as it moves gradually WNW over the next few days. Like ex-TD5, all of the models develop this into a tropical cyclone and a potent one too by early next week.


(Saharan Air Layer map, you can see what I was talking about)

CybrTed

Watching the tropics 8/14/10

By: CybrTeddy, 5:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2010

Good afternoon everyone! Today the tropics are fairly quiet, a trough to the west of the East coast is draping south and is not a threat to develop, a couple of tropical waves in the Atlantic are benign and have little chance to develop. A outbreak in SAL has occurred over the Atlantic suppressing most thunderstorm activity. However there is growing likely hood of not just one, but two systems forming next week. First of all I will begin with our old friend, Tropical Depression 5 which is currently meandering over the state of Alabama. TD5 has begun a loop and now is starting to push back southward to the Gulf of Mexico. Ordinarily, I wouldn't put much faith in a system like that redeveloping given its extreme rarity, however almost all of the global models support that rarity. It appears very possible that TD5 might complete a loop and regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico possibility get another shot of become Danielle. We shall see, right now it appears TD5 will only have 30 hours or so for regenerating but that doesn't mean its impossible. The ULL that has plagued TD5 during its lifetime is long gone and a ridge has built back in over TD5 giving it very favorable conditions to go ahead and re-develop. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are quiet warm once it emerges into the Gulf and tropical cyclones just shallow, warm water. We shall see what happens folks.


Then we have another big threat to watch, a tropical wave tagged 'PGI30L' needs to be watched over the coming days as it has a big potential to develop. Like TD5, almost all of the global models also develop this into a potent system, especially the GFS which is naturally more accurate when it comes to Cape Verde systems. Right now it is not a threat to develop until Wednesday or so. The main inhibitor, the only inhibitor is the SAL. But it appears that SAL will not be a issue if the wave in front of it, tagged 'PGI28L' manages to clear out the SAL. This has big potential over the next few days, and it has everything going for it.



CybrTed

Tropics quiet, but active days ahead 8/13/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:12 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

Hello everyone! The tropics are quiet, Tropical Depression 5 failed to strengthen further and died off before making landfall, causing heavy rains in Louisiana. However, while the tropics are quiet the models are really picking up on two things. First of all, they are predicting something really unusual with TD5. They are predicting that Tropical Depression 5 will loop around over the states, re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and quickly strengthen into a moderate tropical storm while moving pretty much stationary just off the coast, giving heavy rains once again to Louisiana. If this was just the CMC doing this I would have taken this with a grain of salt, however the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NAM all support this scenario which is very interesting to see if this will happen. I am very curious to know whether this will be a separate system (06L) or 05L with aid from a trough split. What's more is that the models have been very consistent with this scenario.


(CMC 00z run)


(ECMWF 12z run)


(GFS 12z run)

Elsewhere the models are also developing a potent wave currently off Africa. This might become our first true Cape Verde system, although SAL might be a factor as a huge dust storm recently just emerged off Africa and is current spreading southward. The ECMWF and GFS both develop this while the CMC has only been hinting at this scenario the past few days. This could very well happen as we're in the time of season that you start watching off Africa for major development. It looks like to me this begins to develop on Tuesday and move westward. We need to keep on eye on this and TD5 as they have potentials to be a threat later next week.

CybrTed

SPECIAL UPDATE TD5 8/10/10

By: CybrTeddy, 12:20 AM GMT on August 11, 2010

Evening all! Sorry for the late update. 94L has become much better organized and has become our first tropical cyclone of the year to be frontal originated. TD5s current satellite appearance is a bit ragged, not in structure but in terms of convection which is minimum. Spiral banding is noted in all quadrants and is taking on the look of a organizing system in terms of structure. TD5 has good convergence and divergence, I see no problems with this becoming Danielle by 11 am tomorrow if we get a good blowup tonight.



The track forecast is pretty hard right now because for one TD5 is sort of meandering around in the Gulf, earlier today 94L was heading SW-S towards the keys and has done a 180 and now is moving towards the NW at 7 mph or so. Based on this, I do not agree with the National Hurricane Center on when this will make landfall. I believe this has a 60 hour room for strengthening if it follows the statistical models, and a 50 hour room for strengthening if it follows the dynamical models.

Strength is pretty hard to predict too, but I do not belive TD5 will become a Hurricane rather at max a 60 mph TS because this system is pretty large and disorganized right now, it's going to take a while to truley come together as a potent system. You might see this system try to ramp up as it is about to make landfall, but what is going to plauge this system is the ULL to its W that will provide some moderate shear as the GFS is showing.

I apologize for the short update and I will have a closer analysis by tomorrow am.

CybrTed

Colin dying, three areas to watch 8/8/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:37 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Good morning everyone! Colin is dying quickly thanks to wind shear refusing to let up over the system and is per the ATCF files back down to Tropical Depression status. It is unlikely Colin will survive, and could die once again before the day is out. Colin however, a few days ago managed to squeeze out 60 mph and was by all means not 'another Bonnie'. Unless Colin gets stronger again, this might be my last discussion on the system as it moves northward over the next couple of days. Bermuda will see heavy squalls as the system goes by, and a good possibility of flooding rains and water spouts.




93L has a good potential to become Danielle or Earl


93L is now up to RED (60%) on the NHC site and will probably become TD5 (or TD6, now that it has competition) within the next 90 hours or so. 93L's current state is somewhat disorganized with the LLC exposed thanks to heavy SAL intrusion and some wind shear, and it has limited convection to boot. 93L will probably not become a depression in 36 hours or so but needs to be watched. It is difficult to say what 93L will intensify too, but if I had to say possibly a Category 1 Hurricane as shear might be lesser or 93L might go more east than Colin and avoid the TUTT. 93L will probably move out to sea like Colin and only be a threat to shipping only.



94L needs to be watched for home grown mischief


Our first trough split with potential to spawn a tropical cyclone occurred today, and has been tagged 94L by the National Hurricane Center. 94L is also disorganized with no signs of lowering pressures or a surface circulation but has a good shot for development into either Danielle or Earl, depending on whether 93L develops first. 94L will probably not begin to develop until 48 hours as it traverses the Florida Peninsula causing very heavy rain over the next few days. Once 94L gets into the Gulf is when things will get interesting as the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all develop this in the Gulf and has potental to become a 50 mph Tropical Storm.


(94L off the east coast of Florida)

We also need to pay attention to a tropical wave just behind 93L, but at the moment there is no model support and I will go more into this system later.

CybrTed

Colin reborn, 93L a threat to become Danielle 8/6/10

By: CybrTeddy, 4:07 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

Good afternoon everyone! Today is a pretty active day in the Tropical Atlantic and I first want to talk about newly regenerated Tropical Storm Colin currently located at 27.1N 66.9W and is moving ENE at 7 mph. Satellite images revel a classically sheared system, with all of the convection to the E of the exposed low level circulation. Yesterday, the COC went under the deep convection and Colin exploded into a 60 mph TS, it has since weakened thanks to a increase in shear back down to 45 mph but now appears to be once again heading back into the deeper convection and we could see some intensification on Saturday once it leaves a highly sheared environment and heads N towards Bermuda. Bermuda needs to keep close tabs on Colin as it has potential to bring to them tropical storm force winds and possibly if the intensity forecast hold Hurricane force gusts to the island.



Colin's current motion will likely take him out to sea over the next few days with a minor threat to shipping. I do not believe Colin will hit any major landmasses and will remain out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough (coincidentally, in 2004 Hurricane Charley, Colin's naming scheme predecessor, curved into Florida thanks to a unseasonable trough, but the trough this time around the trough helped aid the US and we're thankful to have it around) I also do not believe any longer that Colin will become a hurricane, and even if it does it will not be a very strong one 65 knot winds at best. Colin is not a sign of the season to come and once that ridge builds back in with the upward MJO storms will be forced more west.



Meanwhile a bigger threat than Colin may be brewing. Last night a disturbance in the Atlantic was tagged 93L. 93L is a absolutely massive invest that spans half of the length between Africa and South America. ASCAT pass reveled last night a broad circulation, not yet closed, but on its way to being so. The National Hurricane Center currently gives 93L a MEDIUM (40%) chance of 93L developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours which is reasonable given its massive size. I do not believe 93L will go directly out to sea, simply because it will take a very long time to organize and break fully away from the ITCZ. Throw the track models out the window until it does so, as if it doesn't break away it could go further west than Colin will.



CybrTed

Colin regenrating, two Atlantic waves to watch 8/5/10

By: CybrTeddy, 6:18 PM GMT on August 05, 2010

Afternoon all! It appears that after being opened back into a wave Colin has gained a Low Level Circulation and could be right now back to tropical storm status. Satellite shows a very sheared system with the LLC exposed but there, and the NHC has acted accordingly and has upped Colin to 70% of regeneration in the next 48 hours which is a good estimate. I suspect that if Colin regenerates it will take a while to strengthen, as it is in the face of very high wind shear (30-40 knots to the north, 20 knots right now) and will probably remain a minimal TS until 48 hours out and then we'll probably see modest strengthening. I do not see Colin becoming a Hurricane and at best becoming a 65 mph TS, if Colin where to become a hurricane it would have to organize quickly before being pulled out to sea.

Colin is unlikely to affect the United States, and is a threat however to Bermuda as most of the models take Colin just to the East of Bermuda giving them squally weather.


(satellite images show a disorganized system, but probably a Tropical Storm)

Behind Colin we have a tropical wave, a massive one too. This tropical wave is currently mostly embedded within the ITCZ, but once it starts lifting out I would not be surprised to see modest intensification before it would probably be lifted out to sea. Behind that wave, another wave emerging off Africa is probably our most vigorous wave to emerge this season. Satellite shows Upper level outflow, sustaining convection and obvious cyclonic circulation. This is a threat, and I can tell you that this needs to be watched over the next couple of days as the weakness that will pull Colin out to sea will probably not be there and could force this more westward.


(CATL disturbance that is a threat)



(African wave that is a threat)

CybrTed

Ex-Colin and 92L need to be watched 8/4/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

Afternoon all! I will start off with Colin. Colin was downgraded from a tropical storm to a wave yesterday at 5 pm, what was impressive about Colin is what killed him, his forward speed was over 25 knots, I'm surprised Colin even developed a closed LLC with that kind of forward speed. You can thank the LLJ that Colin was embedded in that pushed it westward like that. I do think however Colin has a good chance of regeneration as current satellite shows Colin slowing down and gaining convection thanks to the TUTT which it has to overcome the next few days in order to regain Tropical Depression status. There is a barrier of 40 knot shear ahead of it, and has a equally good chance of killing whats left of Colin over the next several days as it moves WNW. But if Colin manages to survive the TUTT, it will likely track more westward than what the models are showing and 'could' bring some much beneficial rains to the East Coast. I do not believe whatever Colin becomes will be above a 60 mph TS at best and I don't see anything more than a 45 mph TS if it does even affect the East Coast of the CONUS.



Then we have 92L which has now a pretty decent shot at development. 92L was declared last night and has steadily grown in organization since then. There are no signs right now of a surface circulation but convection remains very strong and conditions are very good ahead of this system. There is record high TCHP, SSTs ahead of 92L in the western Caribbean and is currently situated under a anti-cyclonic circulation that is fending off the shear that is killing Colin. SHIPS analyzed shear at 0 knots, perfect Upper level conditions right now. No models develop 92L, which is surprising giving the favorable conditions ahead of the system. This will need to be watched as we head on through the week. The SHIPS also brings this to a 73 mph Tropical Storm just before landfall in the Yucatan. No models think that this will hit Central America and the LBAR thinks 92L could thread the Yucatan Channel and head into the Gulf. That is a outlier at this time but will be interesting to see if any models trend north with it.





CSU and TSR came out with the new August predictions today as well and both are prediction 18 named storms still. I might have a update later today with my August outlook.

CybrTed

Colin and more 8/3/10

By: CybrTeddy, 5:32 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Good afternoon everyone! Tropical Storm Colin was declared at 5 am this morning. After appearing to briefly organize, Colin has rapidly deteriorated and I am having trouble finding a closed low of any sort with this system. It is likely to me that Colin will deteriorate into a Tropical Wave and advisories would be discontinued at 11 pm or so with a good chance of regeneration about 96 hours out or so. The intensity forecast and track forecast is highly problematic especially if Colin dies off which is becoming more likely. If Colin dies off, the track will be more southern as a weaker system will have less of a poleward bias rather than a system that is stronger. I personally believe the GFS has the best handle on this system and takes it closer to the coast and strengthens it back into a tropical storm. The SHIPS doesn't weaken Colin and keeps it just below hurricane status through most of the run, which I view as unlikely.





Meanwhile, a tropical wave is traversing the Caribbean with no signs of organization. It is unlikely that this wave will develop in the next 48 hours but does pose a good threat in the western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this a LOW (20%) chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Even if this wave doesn't develop it adds to the heat buildup in the Caribbean which would favor monsoonal development in the next few days similar to Alex and Tropical Depression 2 back 5 weeks ago.



The models are hinting at developing a tropical wave emerging off the African coast in the next few days from the ITCZ in a similar fashion to Colin. This system could have more favorable conditions than Colin and could pose a threat to develop in the next couple of days. The ECMWF, CMC, and GFS develop this system.

CybrTed

91L organizing 8/1/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:25 PM GMT on August 01, 2010

Good morning all! 91L is currently located at 9.1N 35.4W. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be at 25 knots or 30 mph and pressures are a nice 1008 mb. Satellite revels a organizing tropical low nearing Depression status, ASCAT showed a broad circulation but not yet closed. I do believe that 91L will close off its circulation and could become a tropical depression by tomorrow morning if this rate of organization continues. IR shows a similar story, with some pockets of -80C cloudtops and lots of -70C cloudtops. Wind shear is about 10-15 knots over the system, which is low enough to allow development of this system. It is likely that this will become Tropical Depression 4 and then into Tropical Storm Colin.



Intensity is very hard to predict, but all models bring this to strong tropical storm status and the ECMWF explodes 91L into a Category 3/4 Hurricane into the Gulf after crossing the Florida keys as a Category 2 hurricane. I do see a strong possibility that 91L will become a hurricane. I cannot speculate how strong of a hurricane as there is a area of shear to the north of Puerto Rico that will inhibit rapid strengthening but I do not see shear being much of a factor, especially if 91L's already a strong tropical storm north of Puerto Rico. At this time, I will not speculate on track too much other than this will either enter the Caribbean or go just to the North of Puerto Rico. The Virgin Islands need to be on the look out for the possibility of a tropical storm entering the area by the end of next week.



Madden-Julian Oscillation phase is currently neutral across the tropical basin and will not be a factor in 91L's growth. MJO appears to be about to make a return trip to our basin and we could see a parade of storms like some of the models are picking up on.





CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.