CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Nicole forms, but very weak -- what's next? 9/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 6:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2010

Good Afternoon everyone and welcome to my blog update for WEDNESDAY September 29th, 2010. The tropics are starting to pick up again, we have another tropical storm, Tropical Storm Nicole currently located at 23.5°N 80.6°W. This storm is extremely disorganized, most of the convection is south of the circulation which it self has started to become broad, and ill defined. I would not be totally shocked if Nicole gets killed off by the National Hurricane Center later tonight.



Still, it will be interesting to see what the heat build up will do with the great amount of convection associated with Nicole that is south of Cuba. Nicole didn't do anything to the heat buildup, conditions are still very favorable for another storm to pop. This is being shown by the GFS that the left overs of Nicole will spawn another system (interestingly enough, Nicole was spawned from Matthew) this is also shown by the GGEM (long range extension of the CMC) there is a good possibility that it might not even be associated with Nicole at all. But there is still a lot of convection down there.


(GFS shows split off energy associated with Nicole developing into a separate system as early as 72 hours, as early as Saturday)



Nicole only going to be notable for bringing our totals to a very impressive 14-7-5 before September even ends, also ties 2002's record of 8 storms in September. 2010's ACE stands at 130.8, this makes 2010's ACE 4 points higher than 2008 was at this time, making 2010 the most active in terms of ACE season since 2005. 2010 is ahead of every season but just barely 1995 and only 3 names short of 2005. The season has killed 290 people, mostly from Alex, Karl and Matthew and has caused ~6.135 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Mexico. That is much higher damages than Dean and Felix did to Mexico combined and they both had their names retired.

Matthew killed more people than Felix did in Mexico, Felix was retired for the death toll he caused. It is probable to assume Matthew will become the first TS retired since Allison. Karl caused ~4 billion in damages, killed up to 22 people. Karl will also probably be retired. Alex caused ~2 billion do Mexico/Texas, there is a chance it will be retired as well.

This season is living up to CSU and TSR's predictions in both June and August. While it did not live up to what some predicted, it did not live up to what some predicted as 'another 2009' indeed, I think we'll be talking about 2010 for years to come.

CybrTed

Tropical Invest 96L our next threat 9/27/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for MONDAY September 27th, 2010. The tropics have cooled off, Matthew went inland into Mexico without becoming a threat to America. I was wrong about Matthew, this kind of stuff is pretty tricky. I thought it would be Matthew that would be where 96L is now, but I'll get to that later. Lisa out of no where become a Hurricane, but has since dissipated. We're still watching the remnants of Hurricane Julia, but I do not feel Julia is likely to re-generate into a significant system. All eyes now fall on Invest 96L, and the associated mess in the Caribbean. Right now, nothing is really to organized but it is defiantly a threat. Since Matthew moved inland, all the heat buildup shifted towards the NW Caribbean, over where the highest TCHP in the Atlantic is and is now generating a lot of persistent convection. This type of development is something we've seen a lot this year, and is very similar to how Typhoons develop in the Western Pacific. Generally, Typhoons have a more lopsided wind to pressure ratio, with the winds being weaker and the pressures being lower than expected. We saw this with Alex, which was similar to a Typhoon, as Alex became a massive Hurricane out of monsoonal development with pressures around 946 mb but the winds where around 105-110 mph and landfall. This means that pressures are low in the Caribbean and continue to be low, and that continues to be the case with 96L. Already, the system has a pressure of 1003 mb, moderate TS pressures but is not organized yet.


(current satellite image of 96L)

Now, the question remains will 96L develop. I think it will become Nicole, but it will take its time. Monsoonal development is like cooking a big giant stew, you got to let it sit for a while and just bask in warm water but once you finish cooking it, you got yourself a nice dinner if you do it right! I'm making myself hungry, but you get the point. Monsoonal development like 96L will probably not be completed until perhaps tomorrow night, that is when the global models begin to show initial genesis.

There is a band of 40 knot shear to the north, that is inhibiting further intensification and could allow for this system to not become strong at all, 50 mph TS at best. However, shear maps are showing that band of shear and shear around 96L are lessening, and that could allow for a 70 mph TS. Do I see this becoming a Hurricane? I doubt it, as development could even be sub-tropical in nature as you will have from the front a bunch of dry, cool air shooting into the core. Will Nicole be Sub-tropical or tropical? That's the big question.

(here's the current Water Vapor image of the Gulf, note the dry stable air I was talking about)

The track prediction is also quite tricky, you will have that trough I just mention begin to tug on 96L to the north and eventually the north-east. I do not feel that Cuba will only feel the effects of 96L but I feel its fairly likely that 96L could end up going to Florida. Will it be strong? Don't know, doubt anything above a Category 1 if that. Looking at the models, the one BAMS run so far seems to be off, as they seem to think that it will meander going EAST when it is already on a slow NE motion, all the global models show this.


So, right now Florida and Cuba should pay attention to 96L but shouldn't consider it a serious threat until genesis occurs and shouldn't expect a strong system. After 96L is done, another system in the Caribbean, much stronger and less adverse conditions is also likely to develop and could once again pose a threat to Florida, genesis could begin as early as Friday. But, any model saying a threat to Florida is way long range out to be considered a threat. I said a few weeks ago this trough pattern that everyone was cheering over with Earl and Igor could screw us, that could very well be the case!

CybrTed

Tropical Storm Matthew, Tropical Storm Lisa 9/23/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2010

Afternoon all! We are now looking at our first major threat to the United States this year with just declared Tropical Storm Matthew, currently located at 14.0°N 76.9°W. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph (35 knots) and further strengthening is likely today and tomorrow before a landfall in Central America. Satellite shows Tropical Storm Matthew organizing, with spiral banding becoming more so evident with each frame and it is obvious we are dealing with a strengthening system here.




Further strengthening is likely before it hits Central America by tomorrow night, and there is a possibility that it might not even hit, but skirt, the coastline. In that case it is highly likely Matthew becomes a powerful hurricane, rather if it hits the coastline it will maintain strengthen, but then again strengthen as it nears the Yucatan. That is what the NHC prefers, but still shows a Category 1 hurricane. I think that is what will happen, but stronger if Matthew manages to sit on top of those high Tropical Cyclone Heat potential (TCHP) values, and like I said if in the event Matthew doesn't hit Central America we'll be dealing with a much stronger storm, probably a major hurricane.

Now, this is why I said Matthew is the first major threat to the United States this season. As Matthew reaches the Yucatan and makes landfall it will eventually nearly stall out, then begin a turn towards the North-east under the influence of a trough. Remember how I said during Igor that these troughs could screw us? This is exactly the case. Matthew could very well end up turning towards Florida as a hurricane in a similar manner to that of Hurricane Wilma, though it will probably be not as strong given that Matthew is unlikely to even touch that kind of intensity. Still, the United States, particularly Florida, needs to watch this system!



Tropical Storm Lisa out in the Atlantic

Lisa has regained tropical storm status, but isn't much of a discussion as it will be going well out to sea without gaining hurricane status.


CybrTed

Karl a Hurricane, Igor, Julia unwinding 9/16/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:06 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

Good morning everyone and welcome to my blog for THURSDAY September 16th, 2010. The tropics continue to be very active this morning, while both Igor and Julia have become less organized (particularly the latter) Karl is starting to become a dangerous cyclone to me, and I will start off with him first. Karl is currently located at 19.7°N 92.2°W, maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph (55 knots) and further strengthening is anticipated today, and I expect Karl will obtain hurricane status by tonight. Indeed, the current NHC/USAF Recon inside of TS Karl supports an intensity at 11 am of 70 mph and a pressure of 984 mb.

UPDATE: As of 11 am EDT, Karl is a Category 1 hurricane. The NHC is inline with my intensity forecast, 110 mph at landfall.

(current satellite image of TROPICAL STORM KARL)

Given the current rate of intensification, I full expect Karl to become a Category 2 hurricane, perhaps even a Category 3, before making landfall in Mexico. Karl has been meandering south of forecast points, and has been moving very slow too. The Bay of Campeche's topography is very favorable for cyclones to ramp up (adds to the cyclone circulation) as we saw with Hermine and Alex earlier this year. What concerns me is where Karl is heading, in a similar location to where Hurricane STAN of 2005 made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane. That killed 1,000+ people, and was retired due to the extensive amount of death it caused. Point being, Karl's main threats will be rain, as it will be a slow moving tropical cyclone once it makes landfall even if Karl doesn't obtain Category 3 status.

Hurricane Igor maintains strength
Hurricane Igor is currently located at 20.5°N 56.8°W. Maximum sustain winds have once again increased to 145 mph, but I believe Igor peaked the other day when it hit 155 mph. There is a possibility, given the fact the SAB and ADT both had Igor as a Category 5 hurricane that Igor will be upgraded to a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane once its Tropical Cyclone report comes out. Looking at Satellite, Igor has likely ingested some dry, stable air and has caused the core to become a little ragged looking, but the recent Eye-Wall replacement cycle has caused Igor to become much larger, and is now as large as the Gulf of Mexico.

Bermuda needs to be concerned about the possibility that Igor will be a Category 3 storm once it passes over them and preparations for that need to be made now. After it passes near Bermuda Igor should begin a extra-tropical transition and eventually become a powerful extra-tropical low in the northern Atlantic.

Julia unwinding

Julia is still a hurricane -- but only just. Currently located at 21.2 N, 36.1W. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 105 mph thanks to the shear its big brother, Hurricane Igor, has brought over it. There is also some dry air getting into the core. I am trulely amazed though how yesterday morning Julia managed to become a Category 4 hurricane, and for a few hours for the first time in over 80 years we had 2 simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes out in the Atlantic! Wow! Julia also broke another record, the strongest hurricane ever recorded so far East, past 35W, and has broken Hurricane Fred 2009's record. Julia should begin to unravel the next few days before it also becomes absorbed into extra-Tropical Igor once it passes over cooler SSTs.


What else is behind this trio of storms?

The ECMWF is showing another Igor like system behind Julia developing, and seeing as this is starting to become later in the season it is possible that if this develops it will be our last Cape Verde hurricane of the year. Activity will shift towards the US, and the GFS has been persistently showing that a hurricane will strike the Tampa Bay region in early October. This is unlikely to happen, given how far this is out but it is starting to show what patterns will be in place as we enter late September and Early October.

CybrTed

SPECIAL UPDATE Hurricane Igor, Hurricane Julia, Tropical Storm Karl 9/14/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:33 PM GMT on September 14, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my SPECIAL UPDATE for Tuesday, September 14th 2010. The tropics refuse to quiet down and now we have 3 tropical cyclones, 2 of which are hurricanes, in the Atlantic Basin. First I will start off with Hurricane Igor once again, after weakening some through a Eye-Wall replacement cycle (?) it has regained intensity and is now once again making a run at Category 5 status. Satellite shows several vorticity in the eye, a sign of which hurricanes very close to Category 5 status usually have. Looking on Infrared the Central Dense Overcast has a small chunk missing on one western side but overall the system remains in good health, something that Bermuda should be increasingly worried about.


It appears very possible now that Igor could attempt to make a run at Category 5 status before entering a higher area of shear and weakening.

Bermuda should be worried about Igor, and preparations should be starting to made for a possible major hurricane impacting the area.


Julia a hurricane, unlikely to be as strong as big brother Igor.

Julia became a hurricane earlier this morning, the 5th of the season. Satellite shows a ragged hurricane with a banding eye present. The structure of Julia is being squeezed by outflow from Hurricane Igor to its west.


Julia should continue on a WNW-NW path and move out to sea.


Tropical Storm Karl forms in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Karl has developed, currently located at 18.3°N 84.2°W. This is starting to become a healthy looking Tropical Storm over the warmest waters on the face of the planet, with great depth to them. Karl should have no problem becoming a 60-70 mph Tropical Storm before making landfall in the Yucatan sometime tomorrow afternoon. Spiral banding are noted on all sides of the system, and the pressure is quite low for a 40 mph system, meaning the Caribbean right now has very low pressures, very favorable for intensification, although it has about 16 hours left before a landfall.


What else is next after Karl?
The GFS and ECMWF are starting become consistent on a tropical wave developing off Africa and becoming a tropical cyclone. The next name on the list is Lisa. As the Cape Verde season begins to shut down activity will become more frequent in the location Karl is, perhaps even farther east, and we'll see increasing threats to the USA.

CybrTed

Igor a monster, Julia 9/13/10

By: CybrTeddy, 8:35 PM GMT on September 13, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical update for MONDAY September 13th, 2010. The tropics remain active, and Igor has become a very strong hurricane currently located at 17.5°N 49.7°W, maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph with Category 5 gusts and Igor could become a Category 5 soon. I will update this post if Igor attains Category 5 status. Igor is.. one heck of a hurricane, there is nothing less that I can say to describe it. To be honest, this looks better than Hurricane Dean in 2007 looked at peak intensity so its probable based on that Igor attained Category 5 status overnight and still is a Category 5 in my opinion, I'm sure if there was a recon out there that would prove it. That being said, Igor shouldn't maintain this intensity and should gradually weaken to a Category 3 and not affect land except probably a impact to Bermuda. Igor has taken on annular characteristics today, which would explain why we have seen lacks in Eye Wall replacement cyclones (EWRC), normally in a hurricane this strong it would not maintain it for now over a day.



Igor has been moving south of the model consensus at about 260 degrees or so, a WSW-W motion. This has caused me to lean more on the ECMWF and UKMET's predictions of Igor going just to the west of Bermuda as a very powerful hurricane. If you notice on water vapor there are two troughs, the first one has pretty much failed to grapple onto Igor and turn him, and Igor is acting to 'pump' the ridge (if you can remember Hurricane Isabel, it did something very similar) and force it W-WSW. That being said, there is another trough off the East Coast that has more depth to it that should begin to turn Igor WNW, then NW and out to sea west of Bermuda. Now, you may be thinking 'yeah!!! troughs have saved United States!' you better rethink that. These troughs will screw us, particularly the West coast of Florida, if a system starts going in the Western Caribbean in a manner of that of Paloma and Ida once we get into October as they will take a path similar of that of Hurricane Wilma and the TCHP there will certainly support a major hurricane.


(here's that trough off the East coast I was just talking about)

Tropical Storm Julia likely to become a hurricane
Tropical Depression 12 has gained enough organization to become Tropical Storm Julia, the 10th named storm of the active hurricane season.


Julia is no threat to land, except bringing squally weather to the Cape Verde islands.

Julia will likely become our 5th hurricane over the next few days, possibly as early as Wednesday and shouldn't become a major hurricane as it will be entering a area of higher shear as it moves north but I could see this peak at 80 mph.

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season: The 3rd most active hurricane season in the last 15 years
The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season is now the 3rd most active season since 1995, when the active period began. We're tied with 2008 and 2004 right now and behind 1995 and 2005. A lot of times there is a lull between now and the 25th of September, I don't think that will happen as some of the models are developing a system in the Bay of Campeche and off Africa. If we do get two more storms in the next week or so, we'll be on course for 17 named storms.

CybrTed

Hurricane Igor, TD12, 92L still a threat 9/12/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:45 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

Good morning everyone and welcome to my update for SUNDAY September 12th, 2010. We now have another tropical cyclone off Africa, Tropical Depression 12 to continue the string of Cape Verde tropical cyclones but I'll get to it later. First I want to talk about Hurricane Igor, which is now undergoing rapid intensification and should be our 3rd major hurricane by the end of the day. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 miles per hour with a pressure of 970 mb, making Igor a formidable hurricane. Igor is located at 17.7°N 45.7°W moving west at 13 miles per hour. Satellite shows basically what I just described, a rapidly intensifying hurricane. Cold cloudtops in the eyewall surrounding the eye and great spiral banding in all quadrants. It would appear on satellite that Igor is developing a large eye, that is not the case, rather Igor is so small that a normal size eye would appear massive on the system. Igor's going to increase in size however and strengthen further. All models predict Igor will become a massive hurricane and a very strong one too.



The intensity forecast is hard to predict, as it always is with hurricanes, as there may be a eyewall replacement cycle by tomorrow even which is natural in strong hurricanes. I suspect however, Igor will obtain 115 mph by 5 pm, perhaps even earlier, and become our next major hurricane. After that I suspect intensification will continue tomorrow, unless there is a EWRC, into a Category 4 hurricane. I suspect Igor will peak at 150-160 miles per hour eventually before running into higher shear from the trough that should take it well out to sea. That being said this looks like it could hit Bermuda directly, maybe even give the United States another close shave, before going well out to sea.

Tropical Depression 12 develops
Then we have Tropical Depression 12, currently located at 12.7°N 21.4°W. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 miles per hour and TD12 is expected to become Tropical Storm Juliet, the 10th named storm of the season, later today. After that there should be gradual intensification and TD12 could become a hurricane in 48 hours or so before running into a area of higher shear or maybe even dust and weaken. I do not expect this will obtain major hurricane status and I think this will go well out to sea.



Invest 92L still a threat to develop
Invest 92L is still churning in the Caribbean and is in the Central Caribbean. The system lost organization yesterday and the National Hurricane Center has lowered the probabilities of development to 50% in the next 48 hours. There is only one model that develops this, the ECMWF and makes it into a hurricane in the BOC. Now you may be thinking this doesn't have a chance but it does. I am not surprised the models haven't locked on to this except the ECMWF mostly because this kind of development is much different than that of a Cape Verde system. This is monsoonal, very hard to predict when or if it will develop. This is how storms formed earlier this year, like Alex and TD2 and the models did poor with their formation except the ECMWF and I suspect this is the case. I am in line with the NHC in development, 50% in the next 48 hours. I however am more bold at 72 hours, and I give 92L a 70% chance of development into a tropical cyclone by then before it runs into the Yucatan.


By my next post tomorrow I suspect that we will be at 10-4-3, that is well above average for this time of year and is tied with the activity 2008 saw at this time. We're well on our way for a continuation of a highly active hurricane season.

CybrTed

92L, 93L, Igor 9/11/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:35 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for SATURDAY September 11th, 2010. The tropics remain very active with now joining the party is Tropical Invest 93L just off Africa. I will begin with the biggest threat to land right now, Invest 92L which appears to be getting ready to develop into our next cyclone. Satellite shows 92L steady organizing into a possibly dangerous tropical cyclone, with spiral banding starting to become evident and a surface circulation well established per recon data from yesterday.



(current satellite image of Invest 92L in the Caribbean)

It appears possible that a tropical cyclone could develop by tomorrow morning as it moves slowly westward over some of the hottest temperatures on the surface of the planet. TCHP is so high on the charts that it is off the scale hot, and shear is going to be very low and this has potential to become a Category 1, maybe even a Category 2 hurricane before either crossing into Yucatan or worse case scenario, threading the straight between Cuba and Mexico and heading into the Gulf towards the United States. Remember, this speculation is very difficult to predict and I doubt that will actually happen, particularly this early in the game. Predicting cyclongenesis is a risky and hard thing to do, not even the experts fully understand how this will play out and nor do I. What I do know is that 92L will be traversing over that TCHP I mentioned at a VERY slow rate, and will be in prime conditions to go ahead and develop into a dangerous tropical cyclone as indicated by our own Dr. Jeff Master's blog recently update. Stay tuned.

93L out by Africa also likely to develop into a tropical cyclone

Yet another area of interest is Invest 93L just recently declared emerging off the African coast. There is unanimous model support for this system and we have a good chance to be looking at 2, perhaps 3 tropical cyclones by nightfall Sunday. It is highly unlikely that 93L at this time will affect land, other than the Cape Verde islands as there will be a weakness from Igor that should recurve this, but has a good chance of also becoming a Category 1-2 Hurricane before going extra-tropical by the end of the week.

(Satellite image of 93L)

Igor likely to become our 4th hurricane by tomorrow

Tropical Storm Igor is nearing hurricane status, currently located at 17.4°N 39.5°W moving west at 20 mph. It is likely that Igor will obtain hurricane status as early as tonight, and will likely become a major hurricane while it begins to recurve out in the open Atlantic. That being said the Leeward Islands must watch this, they are in the cone now and could be affected if Igor takes the southern route of the cone, in which case the Northeast United States would also want to pay close attention to Igor. Igor is likely to peak as a 135 mph Category 4 hurricane before either shear or a EWRC begins to weaken it from a trough off the east coast. Igor will probably not hit the United States that being said, but like I just said the Northeast CONUS needs to watch this over the next few days.


CybrTed

Igor and 92L 9/10/10

By: CybrTeddy, 11:31 PM GMT on September 10, 2010

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for FRIDAY September 10th, 2010. Tropical Storm Igor has regained TS status and is now intensifying, satellite shows a organizing tropical cyclone currently located at 16.7°N 33.3°W trucking westward at 21 miles per hour with a pressure of 1002 mb. Satellite estimates have gone up and Igor could quite possibly be nearing hurricane status tomorrow afternoon. I suspect by tonight Igor will be a 60 mph TS.


(Current Satellite image of Igor)


(Infrared shot of Igor, note the very cold, near -80C, cloudtops)

Igor will continue to intensify over the next few days, thanks to high Sea Surface Temperatures and lower shear values that is in Igor's path and should become our 3rd major hurricane, note if that happens 2010 will have the most amount of major hurricanes this early in the season since 2005 as 2008 didn't have their 3rd major hurricane, Hurricane Omar, until October. Indeed, there was a big lull in activity between Josephine and Kyle that year, almost an entire 2 weeks, and had 16 storms in total. There probably won't be a lull, and we'll probably hit 17 by end of the year. Meanwhile, back to Igor it will probably peak out as a 135 mph Category 4 hurricane while it turns NW-NNW and gradually curves out to sea without becoming a major threat to any major landmasses including the islands.


(sea surface temperatures ahead of Igor)


(current predicted path of Igor)

We also have Tropical Invest 92L, which has a good chance by the National Hurricane Center of becoming Tropical Depression 12, and maybe even our tenth named system. There isn't 'much' in the way to inhibit gradual intensification, thanks to some stable air that has made its way over the system and is giving it a unimpressive look. That being said surface pressures are falling with this area and is beginning to pull out of the ITCZ (which has lifted remarkably into the Caribbean) 92L will be traversing over extraordinary high TCHP and SSTs, which leads me to believe this could very well become a dangerous tropical cyclone. I am inline with the National Hurricane Center right now, a MEDIUM chance (50%) of this becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.



A tropical wave inland over Africa also needs to be watched, unanimous model support for this to become a tropical cyclone over the next few days right behind Igor.


Pretty darn good chance of us having 3 or more systems this month and 3 next month, we'll probably leave September with 13 named systems.

CybrTed

Tropical Storm Igor 9/8/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:06 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

Good afternoon all and welcome to my tropical weather update for WEDNESDAY, September 8th, 2010. Tropics still continue to be very active with newly christened Tropical Storm Igor, currently located at 13.9°N 23.9°W. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 miles per hour and additional strengthening is predicted as Igor heads W-WNW over the next 5 days and could become a major hurricane by 120 hours or so. Satellite shows a organizing, albeit sheared, tropical cyclone thanks to 25 knot easterly shear in the area giving Igor fits. This shear should lessen up over the next few days and the GFS shear model is predicting a string of anti-cyclones off the African coast.



I suspect with the anti-cyclone lining up over Igor with the easterly shear we shall see gradual intensification into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, over the next few days. There might be some affects from a secondary tropical cyclone per the ECMWF behind Igor (more on that possibility later) and the two systems could end up competing for energy, they look like they will both be very large hurricanes. As always to speak of track is to speak of intensity, and it appears right now Igor will not break that rule. Basically, the stronger Igor gets it will have a more northward pull towards a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge and begin a NW turn and probably go out to sea. I am leaning on this more so than I am leaning on this system affecting land (with the possible exception of the Leeward Islands), this is a very natural path for a system this time of the year to take. There is also the possibility, especially with the ECMWF predicting the NAO to go positive around Sunday or so (stronger A/B high) that Igor takes a path similar to that of Hurricane Earl last week. Right now, I am very uncertain in what way Igor will go and things WILL change as we go along with this system. Right now, it isn't a real threat to any major landmasses and has 3,000 miles of Atlantic to traverse.


(NHC track as of 5:00 p.m EDT, September 8th 2010)

Now, I mentioned earlier the possibility of a second hurricane vying for dominance with Igor. Most of the models, particularly the ECMWF and GFS are showing a second tropical cyclone developing behind Igor. I think it is highly unlikely that Igor will cause any major effects to the formation of this system and vice versa, they look like they will be 1,000 miles apart from one another but Igor might create a stronger weakness and this hypothical-Julia might take that route, and eventually head on out to sea even more east than Igor, that would support the GFS and the ECMWF (the ECMWF being much more western than the GFS however, which is famous for its northward bias) we'll have to watch this regardless, as this is all 200 hours out or so but I do think it is highly probable that we will see a system behind Igor, good model support for it. The next named storm on the list is 'Julia', the name chosen to replace Hurricane Jeanne in 2004

Since August 22nd, there has been only one day where there hasn't been a named tropical cyclone, Sunday. We've seen back to back systems, now we're up to Igor and the looming possibility of Julia behind it. This pattern will be in place until mid-October I suspect, and we're well on the way for at least 16 storms, 17 more likely at this rate. 2010 will probably be among the top 5 active seasons at this rate.

CybrTed

Tropical Storm Hermine and remnants of Gaston 9/6/10

By: CybrTeddy, 12:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

Good morning everyone and welcome to my tropical weather update for MONDAY September 6th, 2010. The tropics continue to be very active this morning as we have newly declared Tropical Storm Hermine (pronounced Her-MEEN) currently located at 22.4N 95.3W moving towards the north (350 degrees) at 10 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 miles per hour with higher gusts and Hermine should be inland in 36 hours or so. Hermine's a interesting system, forming out of 90L and the remnants of Tropical Depression 11-E in the Eastern Pacific over the past few days and slowly gained organization over the Bay of Campeche over the weekend and was declared last night as a Tropical Depression, now a tropical storm. Satellite images show a organizing system with spiral banding starting to become evident as the core of Hermine begins to tighten up into what appears it will peak as a moderate tropical storm. On Infrared, deep convection as deep as -80C have developed over the circulation and continues to do so with each satellite update. It appears a ragged Central Dense Overcast is beginning to take place. CIMSS Tropical Predict wind shear shows that shear is generally low around the system and conditions are very favorable for strengthening, possibly quick, into a 60-65 mph tropical storm.


(visible of Tropical Storm Hermine)


(Infrared of Hermine)

The core of Hermine is gradually becoming tighter, and there is a small possibility that Hermine could pull a attempt at hurricane status before landfall, it just has that look to me and conditions in the Bay of Campeche are very good for further development of this system, with low shear and record Sea Surface Temperatures. However, the system only has about 24-36 hours left before a possible landfall in the Texas/Mexico border so I am inline with the intensity forecast from the NHC, quick intensification into a 60 mph cyclone before landfall. South Padre Island should expect very gusty and windy conditions as Hermine moves in south, perhaps even just south of them. Hermine should continue on a northward path, with a tad bit of a westward movement before taking a full Northwest movement and eventually landfall in a similar location to that where Hurricane Alex did back in June. Regardless south Padre Island is under a Tropical Storm warning and recuperation should be taken, like bringing chairs inside and loose items inside so they don't fly around but in all honestly it will just be some heavy rain and relief from the heat.

Remnants of Gaston growing disorganized again

After yesterday it appeared Gaston would regenerate once again, however dry air has gripped tight of this system and caused the heavy thunderstorms covering the circulation to collapse and become much less impressive today, however the National Hurricane Center is still holding Gaston at a 70% of regenerating into a tropical cyclone.



Water vapor shows what I am talking about, take a look of that dry, stable air strangling the circulation of Gaston and has taken on a much less impressive look to it today but still has a good shot in my opinion of development around 65W.


Anyways, with Hermine we are now up to 8-3-2, 8 named storms, 3 Hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. All of the tropical cyclones this year have affected land and only Colin and Danielle didn't make a landfall. Earl made landfall in the Leeward Islands as a strengthening Category 3 hurricane causing pretty heavy damage before strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane. Thankfully, only a few deaths are being recorded throughout the storms destructive path through the Leeward Islands and Canada. We're on course right now for my prediction of 16-17 named storms by the end of the year.

CybrTed

Will Gaston rise again? 90L 9/5/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:19 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

Good morning everyone! I apologize for my lag in updates recently and I will be having updates more frequently. Earl's gone now, peaking as a 145 mph Category 4 with pressure of 928 mb. Earl was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Dean in 2007 and the 3rd strongest hurricane so far north. Earl caused millions of dollars in damages to the Leeward Islands and killed 3 people, but wasn't as bad as it could have been.


(Hurricane Earl at peak intensity September 1st, 2010)

Gaston still around, but might regenerate

Gaston is still a threat, after dissipating due to dry air intrusion in the core Gaston has become much less impressive than it was a few days ago and is unlikely to redevelop today. That being said, beyond today there is a pretty good chance Gaston will get its act together and become a player. Gaston's main problem is mainly dry air, leaving the circulation exposed but if Gaston builds convection and begins to mix that dry air out we could be looking at our next threat as it approaches the islands, storms have a tendency to blow up there anyways.



I believe Gaston will eventually regenerate, around 60W or so possibly on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center currently gives Gaston a HIGH chance (70%) of regenerating in the next 48 hours, and I also give it 70% in the next 48 hours. Where will Gaston go? It appears that Gaston will truck west and possibily head into the northern Caribbean, or maybe might even go north of the islands, some of the models are hinting that might happen with this system. Regardless, this system should not right now be looked as right now as a 'serious' threat, but keep on eye on this system.

90L also might develop into a tropical cyclone

Invest 90L was declared this morning out of a disturbance in the BOC. 90L doesn't have long over water but it is starting to get its act together on satellite image, but there is no sign to me right now of a closed low level circulation and that may be 90L's biggest inhibitor right now, the other of course being land interaction. I do not think 90L will become a strong system, 45 mph at best, but there is a good chance this will become Hermine tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a HIGH chance (60%) of developing in the next 48 hours, I give it a 70% chance, but it needs to get going now as it has no time to loose.



If you haven't noticed, we've just had 4 named storms in a 2 week period, almost simultaneously and 90L might become our 5th. We told you this would happen, and this is the way it will be throughout this month and even into October. We're on course for 16 storms, perhaps even 18.

Its 7-3-2 folks.

CybrTed

Category 4 Earl, Fiona, Gaston 9/1/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:19 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

Afternoon all! The tropics have officially gone off the chain, our fourth named storm in 11 days formed today, Gaston. Right now though it appears the short term threat is Earl, which has now completed and eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) and has regained Category 4 intensity. Satellite images show a VERY well organized hurricane and its the biggest threat to North Carolina and Virgina since Hurricane Isabel in 2003, preparations need to be started now for those areas and the Northeast, a landfall there seems more likely now as Earl is refusing to make the turn per the National Hurricane Center. Stay tuned to your local officials all in the warning zone! Earl is currently located at 26.3°N 73.3°W moving towards the NW at 17 mph and will accelerate as it heads towards the Northeastern United States.


(current Satellite image of Earl)

Earl could strengthen a little more before encountering higher values of wind shear from the trough but will probably be a high end Category 3 when it approaches North Carolina and Virgina. Afterwords the Hurricane will loose some strength as it nears the Northeast US and if there is a landfall it will probably be a high end Category 2 hurricane. Earl will be accelerating rapidly, so it will not have too much time to weaken and will bring a good amount of storm surge to the areas it threatens over the next few days.

Now, the track forecast is pretty tricky right now but it appears that Earl will hit North America, in Canada at the very least, and will probably bring Hurricane force winds to Virgina and northern North Carolina. It could also bring hurricane force winds to areas like Manhattan, Boston, and a few other cities in the North East that are threatened by Earl right now. Earl is being stubborn, and is not making the turn I expected it to make increasing the chances of a US landfall in either the mid-Atlantic or in the North-East. However I am not 100% certain Earl will do that.

Tropical Storm Fiona not much of a threat

Tropical Storm Fiona is currently located at 20.2°N 62.9°W, maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph. Satellite shows a dying tropical cyclone, the circulation over the past day has become completely exposed and Fiona is unlikely to attain Hurricane status as it moves out to sea and becomes only a shipping threat.



Tropical Storm Gaston a threat to the Caribbean

We also now Have Tropical Storm Gaston out in the Atlantic, the 7th named storm of the active 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season, currently located at 12.9°N 37.0°W. Satellite is very different from that of Fiona and shows a gradually organizing tropical cyclone with hints of spiral banding on the North and the western side of the circulation. Dry air is currently intruding the system and that will limit any rapid intensification but Gaston will probably become a Hurricane as it nears the Islands. I suspect Earl will also take a very different path than that of Earl and Fiona and will bend back westward and head into the Caribbean as a hurricane. The islands need to keep a close eye on Gaston.




CybrTed


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