CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Tropical Storm Tomas and Shary 10/29/10

By: CybrTeddy, 8:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my update for FRIDAY October 29th 2010. The tropics are awake, we now have two tropical storms one of which appear poised to become a very dangerous hurricane in the Caribbean, Tomas. Tomas and Shary have brought the seasonal totals up to 19, making 2010 the 3rd most active hurricane season on record tied with 1995 and the 1887 hurricane seasons, and the season will likely see at least 2 more storms.

Tropical Storm Tomas becomes our 19th named storm.

Tropical Storm Tomas was named at 5 pm, currently located at 11.1°N 57.5°W. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph with higher gusts and it appears promising that Tomas will continue to strengthen as the day progresses. I am unsure why the NHC went with 40 mph, given the recon found evidence that Tomas is a 50-60 mph TS but that matters very little right now. Satellite presentation is absolutely excellent, deep convection around and over the circulation with good spiral banding on all quadrants of the system.


A very dangerous situation unfolding with Tomas

Tomas has the looks and potential to become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane in a few days as it nears Jamaica or maybe even north of that. The water temperatures are still very warm and can support a Category 4-5 hurricane still, and Tomas will be moving very slowly over the next few days. Conservatively I believe Tomas will become a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane. Looks like Tomas after that will have to deal with increased shear, lowering the chances of strengthening after 120 hours or so. Tomas will likely continue moving in a WNW fashion over the next couple of days.


Tropical Storm Shary strengthens, no threat to land

92L became Tropical Storm Shary yesterday too, and has the look of a disorganized 60 mph TS and that is pretty much what it is. Shary is no threat to land.



CybrTed. Everyone in the Caribbean stay on guard.

Tropics extremely active for October 10/28/10

By: CybrTeddy, 11:14 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my update for THURSDAY October 28th, 2010. The tropics are very, VERY active today especially for this time of the year. We are looking at 3 invests right now, two of them look poised to become Shary and Tomas.

Invest 90L growing less organized.
Invest 90L is the less organized of the pair, and is a wave we've been following for the past couple of days. Last night the NHC had to issue a special outlook for 90L stating that 'any increase in organization would lead to the formation of a Tropical Storm' apparently there was a debate on whether or not to name it to according to Dr. Jeff Masters's WU blog. They took the conservative route, but if 90L does not form that leaves the possibility and speculation that 90L will be upgraded to a Unnamed Tropical Storm. We shall see. 90L is no threat to land.


92L poised to become Sub-Tropical Depression 20
Then we have 92L which appears poised to become Sub-Tropical Depression 20 sometime tomorrow. Why 92L would be sub-tropical is because it is under a broad cold core Upper Level low, streaming cold air into the disorganized circulation. The National Hurricane Center currently gives 92L a HIGH 60% chance of developing into a Tropical/Sub-Tropical Depression in the next 48 hours. I feel 92L will eventually develop into Shary, the 18th storm, and drift around Bermuda before eventually being picked up by a trough and dragged out to sea without being a serious threat to land.



Dangerous 91L approaching the Caribbean
Then there is 91L, the more dangerous and threatening to land out of the 3 systems currently out in the Atlantic. 91L is currently showing hints of banding on all quadrants, and is under a good shear environment and will be heading into the Caribbean over the next few days. The models are picking up on this once it enters the Caribbean, although it is possible that 91L will become TS Tomas before it enters the Caribbean, although at this time I do not think this will happen. Once in the Caribbean several models are showing that 91L/Tomas will stall out there, drift around and perhaps become a Hurricane before a trough moves in and swings it NE in a typical October pattern.

The Caribbean islands and South America needs to pay attention to 91L for the possibility of seeing a Tropical Storm later next week in that area. Stay tuned!



CybrTed

SPECIAL UPDATE Richard becomes a Hurricane, likely to strengthen further 10/24/10

By: CybrTeddy, 2:53 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

Good morning and welcome to my special update for SUNDAY October 24th, 2010. The main feature today is newly upgraded Hurricane Richard, the 10th hurricane of the very active season. Richard is currently located at 16.9 86.9W. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph with higher gusts and Richard is predicted to become a Category 2 hurricane just as it makes landfall in Belize later today. Everyone in Belize and the Yucatan need to make preparations now, as a Category 2 hurricane is no joke and needs to be taken seriously. Satellite shows fair to excellent spiral banding on all quadrants of Hurricane Richard, meaning that the dry air has abated and has excellent conditions for further strengthening. Also evident on satellite a eye has become apparent also indicating further strengthening is likely. Infrared shows a sold CDO with -70-80C cloudtops directly over the center, this is a classic setup for a quickly intensifying hurricane as it makes landfall, something we've seen many times this season. Radar out of Belize shows the eyewall has almost completely rapped around the entire eye, with the eyewall open just to the SW. It is likely that this eyewall will close off completely and Richard will put it into high gear.


(radar out of Belize showing Hurricane Richards' core)


(satellite image of Hurricane Richard, note the eye beginning to take shape)

Further strengthening as I said is predicted and I think Richard will become a 105 mph Hurricane just as it makes landfall in Central Belize. Richard does not appear to have enough time to make a run at major hurricane status and I deem this scenario unlikely but a strong Category 2 is defiantly not out of the question. Richard has about 12 hours to landfall, heavy rain will begin effecting the area shortly. Once inland, Richard will weaken and probably either nearly die off or completely dissipate over the highlands of the Yucatan. Richard will not effect the United States except with maybe some rain, but nothing serious at all.



CybrTed

Richard forms, 90L might develop 10/21/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

Good Afternoon and welcome to my blog update for THURSDAY October 21st, 2010. The tropics have hit the secondary peak, and we're once again facing the possibility of a multiple storms. First I will talk about our newly formed Tropical Storm Richard, the 17th storm of the season.
Richard is currently located at 16.0°N 80.4°W, maximum sustained winds continue to hold steady at 35 knots (40 mph) and further strengthening is expect, perhaps quick intensification. Satellite presentation of Richard isn't terribly impressive, thanks to dry air located to the WNW of the system that is impeding thunderstorm growth on the western side of the circulation. It also appears there are multiple vortexes orbiting around the main circulation, making the circulation hard to locate on satellite. That being said, Richard is beginning to slowly organize, as we now have -80C cloudtops appearing directly over were the center is suppose to be. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is currently en route to this system.


Intensity forecast for Tropical Storm Richard

It is hard to say how strong Richard will get, I have a fairly good feeling to say that Richard will strengthen tomorrow into a 60 mph tropical storm and a hurricane by Saturday.

This is inline with the intensity forecasts and the National Hurricane center, who believes that Richard might be approaching Category 2 status by Sunday.

I feel Richard will peak at 110-115 before hitting the Yucatan, weaken, then re-emerge into the Gulf and it probably won't strengthen there.. thanks to high wind shear and intense amounts of dry air that will probably make it a 40 mph TS if that. Still, Richard needs to be watched closely over the next few days.


Track forecast for Tropical Storm Richard
Richard has been meandering the last few hours, but generally is moving towards the SSE at 3 mph. This motion is expected, thanks to weak steering currents in the area that are allowing Richard to just sit over warm waters.


It appears likely that a ridge will build in to push Richard at a fairly good pace to the West and head towards the Yucatan. I think that the National Hurricane Center has a fairly good handle on this.

After that, Richard, or whatever is left of Richard, will probably begin a climatological favored turn towards the NE thanks to a trough that will be in the area.
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One more go for the Cape Verde season? Invest 90L
A strong and vigorous tropical wave has emerged off Africa, dubbed Invest 90L and is showing signs of organization and with good organized convection and spiral banding. This could very well become Shary. The only problem in its way is simple -- you don't get strong Cape Verde storms in late October, its possible but extremely unlikely.


CybrTed

99L likely to become Tropical Storm Richard 10/20/10

By: CybrTeddy, 12:05 AM GMT on October 21, 2010

Good evening and welcome to my blog update for WEDNESDAY October 20th, 2010. Here we go again folks! The low pressure system near 17N 81W dubbed Invest 99L has acquired a good amount of organization the last day, and is nearing Tropical Depression status. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) has bumped up the odds of increased organization to TD status to 80% in the next 48 hours. A NOAA Air Force hurricane hunter is scheduled to visit later this evening. Satellite presetation is rather confusing right now, the National Hurricane center 'appears' to still think the exposed Low Level Circulation is still the dominant Circulation, but several buoys just to the E of Jamaica show that 99L has relocated to the deep convection as is common with sheared system. This would also support the erratic movement of the COC, which has considerably shifted south and broadened out. That tells me that it is orbiting a strong MLC or LLC. Pressures from those buoys have fallen to 1006.8 mb.



Models for 99L

I do believe that 99L will become Tropical Depression 19, and probably Tropical Storm Richard later tomorrow or Friday. The global models have FINALLY started to come aboard with the ECMWF predicting that 99L will become a Category 1 hurricane and hit the Yucatan. The HWRF and GFDL continue to show 99L becoming a powerful hurricane, with the HWRF eventually showing 99L hitting the Tampa area as a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane and the GFDL showing a borderline Category 5 hitting the Yucatan. I do not think either of these scenarios in terms of intensity is likely, so you have no reason to stress over this as of yet but bear a close eye on it if you live in Jamaica and any of the surrounding islands.

Possible track?

The track forecast is showing above normal uncertainty, with half the models showing a Yucatan hit and half showing a system hitting Florida. I will not make a prediction until the first advisory is written on 99L.

Super Typhoon Megi makes direct hit on the Philippines

Super Typhoon Megi made landfall as the strongest cyclone ever to hit land if I can remember, and the 2nd strongest cyclone this Century, behind Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Megi is also the first Category 5 landfall since Hurricane Dean in 2007. Megi made a direct blow to the northern part of the Philippines and so far the damage reports seem to be quite unremarkable, thanks to a resonantly acting government that got the people out of there ASAP.


CybrTed

Super Typhoon Megi 10/17/10

By: CybrTeddy, 3:28 PM GMT on October 17, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical update for SUNDAY October 17th, 2010. The Atlantic is relatively quite with two disturbances, invest 99L in the SW Caribbean and a Cape Verde wave to the SW of the CV islands.. neither are a short term threat to develop. What I want to talk about though is Super Typhoon Megi, a catastrophic Category 5 typhoon located at 8.1N 125.1E. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 180 mph and the barometric pressure has dropped to a very impressive 895 mb per recon and continuing to intensify. ADT has this system and an extraordinary 7.4, with RAW jumping up to 7.5. Megi is an intense cyclone, with a perfect band of -80C cloudtops surrounding the eye and a very circular central Dense Overcast over the system that is already skirting the coast line. This is a dangerous situation for the Philippines, and could be a catastrophic situation and it appears Megi will make landfall at category 5 intensity.


Megi could very well continue to intensify right up to landfall, unless a Eye-wall replacement cycle begins and the system gets weaker as it nears the coast, which is certainly possible as cyclones rarely maintain this level of intensity for long. There are no signs right now though of an eyewall replacement cycle about to take place. Megi is a classic example of a WPAC monsoonal system, which interestingly enough the Atlantic basin, particularity the Caribbean has seen several systems that developed in a similar manner to Megi. Alex, TD2 to name a few examples.

Megi looks like it will strike the northern Philippines with winds up to at least 175, probably 185 or 190 before weakening as it heads overland, followed by an emergence back over water and over the South China sea. After that it is likely China will be hit by a 115 mph Category 3 Typhoon, as there will be some shear to the north and cooler waters that will impact the circulation, but still is likely to be a major typhoon at the time.


During the Atlantic post season, I will be posting updates in this manner on WPAC and Southern Hemisphere cyclones.

CybrTed

Richard might form next week 10/16/10

By: CybrTeddy, 7:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2010

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for SATURDAY October 16th, 2010. The tropics are fairly quite today for once, with the exception of an area of disturbed weather located in the SW Caribbean, just north of Panama that is associated with a weak trough and low pressure. This so far has not been declared an invest but will likely become one in the next day or so. Satellite is showing some signs of organization but no real significant pressure falls, telling me that the system does not have a closed circulation. In addition, there is some dry mid-level air to the east of the system that might hinder development. Shear is favorable in the area, and should not be a problem that might hinder the slow monsoonal development of this system.

(RAMMB site image of the Caribbean AOI0

This system has fairly decent model support, from the GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, and the UKMET and it has had good model support for the last few days, since my last post actually. I think this will eventually develop into Richard, and move stationary over the SW Caribbean, hit Central America and then be drawn north by a trough that will be entering the South-eastern United States, moving off the coast and re-entering back into the Caribbean. This path is reminiscent of Hurricane Ida in November 2009 that also developed out of the SW Caribbean.


Latest GFS run, peak intensity of 'Richard'

That being said, there is also the possibility as shown by the GFS and the NOGAPS that this will take a little longer to develop or not influenced by a weakness to its north and just head straight into Central America as a strong TS, or minimal Hurricane. It will certainly have enough time to do that, but the mountains of Central America will likely kill this system if that does indeed happen.

CybrTed

Paula hits Cuba -- Richard on the Horizon? 10/14/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my update for THURSDAY October 14th, 2010. Paula became the 9th hurricane of the season 2 days ago and eventually peaked at 100 mph, Category 2 status before it underwent a gradual weakening and now is only a 60 mph Tropical Storm. Radar out of Cuba showed the eyewall quickly begin to unravel throughout the day before hitting Cuba. Satellite shows Paula becoming exposed, with most of the heavy convection well north of Cuba and over Florida even. Paula should be dead in the next day or so, and shouldn't be a further threat.



Is Richard on the Horizon?
Some of the models are once again showing consistency in developing another tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean. In particular for once unlike Paula, the GFS. The NOGAPS and ECMWF also show this storm, but weaker. Pressures are quite low in the Caribbean and this needs to be watched. It might be possible that this will get going by Wednesday even and track across the Caribbean in a similar manner to Paula. I will not speculate on possible intensity, because Paula did not use up a lot of heat but the heat in the Caribbean is not as bad as it was in September and August, thanks to cooler dry air that has been over the Caribbean the last few days. Here's the GFS 12z, the 18z will come out in 30 minutes or so.

1009 mb low in the Caribbean by Monday on the GFS. I suspect this point it is a tropical depression.


Check it out by Wednesday, it's already a formidable hurricane.


This is, believe it or not, in a fairly reliable time frame of 4-6 days out. This is what the 12z NOGAPS has to say about this.

Again by Monday, a TD or even a TS in the SW Caribbean.


By Wednesday, easily a strong TS.


The ECMWF's solution is much, much less aggressive but shows a 1009 mb low by the Yucatan in 240 hours or something like that. But slowly its getting to be on board. The UKMET only shows a surface low, and the CMC doesn't show anything from it. Right now, we need to watch this area.


CybrTed

Tropical Storm Paula forms 10/11/10

By: CybrTeddy, 9:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my update for MONDAY October 11th, 2010. The Atlantic has cranked out another named storm, Tropical Storm Paula, the 16th named storm of the season. Paula's formation marks the 3rd earliest use of the 'P' name and brings our totals up to 16-8-5. This makes 2010 a hyperactive season. Paula is currently located at 16.0N 84.0W. Maximum sustained winds have been conservatively set at 60, it is likely right now though Paula is nearing that status. The satellite presentation is impressive, given the conditions to the north being so hostile.


(current satellite image of TS Paula)

Paula went from invest to a strong TS, indicating that Paula is going through quick intensification. I believe Paula will be up to 65-70 by the next advisory.

Continued intensification is also likely and Paula could even be a hurricane as early as tomorrow night. After that, it is very hard to say as usual. Paula could very well become a Category 3 hurricane, given the warm SST's and plentiful TCHP. I doubt this will occur, but Paula will be traversing over very warm TCHP as I just said so we need to watch this.


Now, Paula is currently moving away from Central America at 9 mph. I expect this motion to continue or slow down over the next few days. What happens next is very tricky. Paula could end up running into the Yucatan, or more likely begin to lift north then forced back eastward by a ridge, then head south. It might not even make a loop at all, this is being showed by some models. It might head through the straight between the Yucatan and Cuba as a hurricane. Conditions in in the Gulf are hostile, mostly because of dry air, but you can clearly see the outflow from Paula drastically moistening up the atmosphere, and will provide rains to Florida. Whether or not it loops in the Gulf I expect that the dry air will be much less.




It is truly amazing that we're not only looking at our 16th named storm in early-mid October but we're talking about the 18th cyclone of the season. I did not expect 98L to develop in my last blog, but sure enough it did. I expect 2 more systems to develop this year, Richard and Shary. There might even be more. Stay tuned. All eyes in the Caribbean should be focused on Paula.

CybrTed

Hurricane Otto 10/8/10

By: CybrTeddy, 8:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for SATURDAY October 8th 2010. The highlight for today is Hurricane Otto, the 8th hurricane of the season. Otto's formation marked the 3rd earliest the 'O' name formed in the Atlantic, behind 2005's Hurricane Ophelia and 1995's Hurricane Opal and ahead of 2008's Hurricane Omar, all of which obtained hurricane status. Hurricane OTTO is currently located at 25.9°N 64.0°W with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Otto is currently moving in a NE fashion at 17 mph. Otto is expected to further intensity as the day moves on.


Otto's satellite presentation is impressive, given the fact Otto was at first a sub-tropical cyclone.

If memory serves correct Otto is the first sub-tropical cyclone to become a Hurricane since Hurricane Gustav in 2002 which was also the first ever named sub-tropical storm.


Otto will probably continue to organized, already the ATCF files have Otto up to 80 mph and that is likely to be the intensity for the 5 pm advisory coming up. I suspect Otto will peak either at 95, a high end Category 1, or a 100 mph Category 2 before weakening and eventually undergo an extra-tropical transition.

Otto will continue to move on a NE fashion, and will not be a threat to land except shipping.

None of the models are predicting tropical cyclone formation over the next few days.

CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.