CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

2010 - Year in Review. Part Four. Julia and Karl 11/24/10

By: CybrTeddy, 8:19 PM GMT on November 27, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my 4th seasonal review for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season! I will attempt to provide an in dept analysis of storms Hurricane Julia and Karl The time period this season between Aug 24th - September 18th was truly astonishing, we not only saw 5 major hurricanes in that time frame but we did not have a single 24 hours of not having a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic ocean. This was because of the major unbalance of heat throughout the world thanks to the La Nina and the lack of hurricanes in the Pacific. We saw during this time period the upward MJO completely refuse to leave our basin, something I only saw in 2005, because of that unbalance in the basins. That is why we started cranking out Cape Verde storm after Cape Verde storm with the exception of Hermione, that spawned from Tropical Depression 11-E.

Hurricane Julia smashes a record - strongest Hurricane East of 35W.
Hurricane Julia was an amazing storm to watch. First of all with Igor active Julia obtained Category 4 status with Igor the first time in over 80 years that we've seen two Category 4 hurricanes at once. Julia also was a very small and very rapidly developing Category 4 hurricane.

Julia's formation was a well predicted event, with several models showing the formation of Julia well ahead of time with the wave that would spawn Julia emerging off the African coastline on September 11th 2010. The wave had a very vigorous MLC while over Africa and was very likely from the get go to become a hurricane, but I wasn't expecting Julia to become as powerful as it did. The wave rapidly developed overnight and by September 12th, 2010 became Tropical Depression 12 at 11 am that time. Tropical Depression 12 was in a semi-favorable environment for intensification and was predicted to become a 65 knot Category 1 hurricane while moving well out to sea.

(TD 12 at the time of declaration on 11 AM September 12th)

TD12 continued to organize and later that day became Tropical Storm Julia, the 10th named storm of the season at 11 pm later that day. Julia had good outflow but was squeezed somewhat by expanding Hurricane Igor. Julia also had some trouble with dry air getting into its core but that did not stop it from organizing as the next day went on. By 5 pm September 12th, 2010 Julia organized into a 50 mph Tropical Storm as it moved WNW. It was well predicted that Julia would never effect any major landmasses. On September 13th, 2010 Julia became a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph at 5 am and continued to strengthen, much against the odds it was predicted too. By 11 pm September 14th that night Julia underwent an unexpected period of rapid intensification and was already a Category 3 hurricane. Julia continued to explosively intensify and on September 15th Julia peaked as a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane. This was completely unexpected, no models showed that Julia would become this strong this far east. It blew away Hurricane Fred of 2009's record of the farthest east major hurricane recorded. I was very impressed when I woke up that morning to find a Category 4 hurricane. This just goes to show how little we understand of prediction hurricane intensities. Hopefully our knowledge will be a little more complete in the future.


(Julia at peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane)

Hurricane Julia's glory was short lived as outflow from strengthening Hurricane Igor to its west, also a Category 4 hurricane was expanding. Julia was stretched and sheared and gradually over the next few days weakened to a Category 2 hurricane and eventually dissipated 5 days after becoming a Category 4 hurricane on September 20th, 2010. This storm, like Igor was amazing to witness. Its very rare to see this happen, but its likely that Julia was not the only Category 4 this far east. Wouldn't be surprising at all if one was in a similar location 80 years ago or so, we would not have been able to track it.

Hurricane Karl - The most destructive storm of the season.
Hurricane Karl was a bad omen from the beginning of its formation when it was 92L. The storm formed from the ITCZ in a similar manner and location to Hurricane Felix in September 2007. 92L had trouble organizing, and took it a while to get going and remained at a 50-60% chance of formation much through the 11-13th of September. As 92L neared the Yucatan a hurricane hunter went into 92L and discovered Tropical Storm Karl, the 11th named storm of the season on September 14th, 2010. Karl was at first unlikely to ever become what it did in the BOC, but Karl quickly strengthened as it neared the Yucatan and even had a forming eyewall as it hit the Yucatan early on September 15th, 2010. Karl, against predictions did not weaken to a depression over the Yucatan and on the 16th it emerged off the coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. A Hurricane Hunter went into investigate Karl and found it much stronger than expected, and was predicted to become a Category 2 hurricane as it hit Mexico. Karl shortly after words became a Category 1 hurricane.

(Karl becoming a Hurricane on September 16th, 2010)

Overnight, Karl went under a period of rapid intensification and became a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane, the final major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, and was predicted to strengthen further into a Category 4 hurricane as it neared Mexico. Karl dived to the SW as it neared, and its eye became a little deformed as it hit Mexico, and was estimated that mid-day on September 17th, 2010 Karl made landfall as a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane on the Mexican Gulf coast. Karl was the first major hurricane to hit the Gulf coast since October 2005. Karl quickly weakened and dissipated the next day as it moved inland Mexico.


Karl was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, and caused 5.6 billion US dollars to Mexico, making it one of the most destructive hurricanes to hit there behind Gilbert, Wilma and a few other storms. It is likely that Karl will be retired in the spring.

CybrTed.

2010 - Year in Review. Part Three. Fiona - Igor 11/24/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:25 AM GMT on November 25, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my 2nd seasonal review for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season! I will attempt to provide an in dept analysis of storms Tropical Storm Gaston - Hurricane Igor. The time period this season between Aug 24th - September 18th was truly astonishing, we not only saw 5 major hurricanes in that time frame but we did not have a single 24 hours of not having a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic ocean. This was because of the major unbalance of heat throughout the world thanks to the La Nina and the lack of hurricanes in the Pacific. We saw during this time period the upward MJO completely refuse to leave our basin, something I only saw in 2005, because of that unbalance in the basins. That is why we started cranking out Cape Verde storm after Cape Verde storm with the exception of Hermione, that spawned from Tropical Depression 11-E.

Tropical Storm Fiona continues the Cape Verde train.
When Danielle was spinning up to a tropical cyclone most -- if not all the models were indicating Earl and Fiona would spin up right behind Danielle days out and they were correct. Most of the models however showed Fiona, particularly the ECMWF, becoming a Hurricane in the Caribbean and striking Florida. Fortunately, this did not take place.. thanks to big brother Earl that quickly strengthened. The system that would become Tropical Storm Fiona was first mentioned on August 27th 2010 at 2 pm. The system was a very vigorous tropical wave, it had a well defined LLC almost as soon as it hit the coastline.


The wave grew organization and the next day was already up to a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. However, thanks to some outflow from Earl, moderate shear, and dry air penetrating the core of the wave the system was not able to develop until the 30th of August. This caused much annoyance to me, because it seemed every time pre-Fiona managed to gain convection and the verge of TD/TS status it fell apart, but most of our eyes were on rapidly developing Hurricane Earl ahead of Fiona.

(Tropical Storm Fiona the day after it was classified as a cyclone, August 31st)

Fiona did not really strengthen much as it neared the islands much do in part of it being still to close to Major Hurricane Earl and gave the islands only a small impact and some rain, nothing in compared to what Hurricane Earl brought. Fiona waxed and waned over the next few days, before finally fell apart and died on September 4th, 2010.

Gaston forms behind Fiona -- but never manages to get going.
I think the most interesting tale of Gaston was what it did after is declared death vs. its short tenure as a Tropical Storm. The system that would spawn Gaston was first mentioned on August 31st, 2010 and was dubbed 98L. 98L was already exhibiting strong signs of organization and had a lot of room compared to what Fiona and Earl had to develop into a strong tropical cyclone.. so I thought.



98L continued to become better organized and by September 1st was declared Tropical Depression 9 well to the west of the Cape Verde islands and a few hours later was declared Tropical Storm Gaston. Gaston showed similar problems to Fiona and Earl at first, still the NHC predicted that Gaston would eventually become a hurricane. Gaston quickly began to fall apart on September 2nd thanks to dry air getting into its core, and shear that was impacting its circulation. Gaston eventually dissipated at 5 pm later that day, but that wasn't going to be the last time we heard of Gaston. Gaston continued to move W along the ITCZ, nearly becoming a Tropical Depression several times over the next few days. Gaston still was plagued by the problems that killed it, dry air penetrating its core. Gaston then managed to get into the Caribbean and dissipated to the south of Jamaica several days after it was declared dead. It was the long and tragic soap opera of Gaston.

Tropical Storm Hermine brings rain and wind to Mexico/Texas.
The system that would eventually spawn Tropical Storm Hermine formed in the Eastern Pacific vs the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 11-E that had already brought heavy and devastating rains to Mexico managed to transfer its energy and Mid-Level Circulation into the Gulf of Mexico. The system, dubbed 99L was first mentioned on September 4th 2010.


99L quickly became better organized, working together with low shear, stationary movement and the topography of the BOC that would quickly allow 99L to become Hermine, perhaps even a Hurricane. 99L was declared Tropical Depression 10 on September 5th, 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico and on September 6th it became Tropical Storm Hermine. Hermine was a stationary moving system that quickly managed to intensify as it turned north towards the Rio Grande, the same area that was hit by Hurricane Alex a few months prior.

(Hermine strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico on September 6th)

Hermine by 11 pm that night was estimated to have become a 60 mph Tropical Storm while nearing the Rio Grande. Hermine eventually peaked as a 70 mph Tropical Storm while making landfall just south of the Rio Grande on September 7th, 2010.

Hurricane 'EEK'gor lives up to its name.
Hurricane Igor was a true monster that inflicted heavy damage to Newfoundland as it churned out to sea. Igor was a Category 4/5 hurricane at peak intensity, and managed to churn out an ACE of 40+, the highest of any Atlantic Hurricane since Hurricane Ivan of 2004, ironically the name predecessor of Hurricane Igor.

The wave that would become Igor was first mentioned on September 7th and remarkably quickly started developing into a Tropical Depression. By September 8th 2010, Igor was already up to a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and appeared likely that it would become yet another monster hurricane in the Atlantic.


Igor was declared at 11 am September 8th 2010 while just over the Cape Verde islands.


Igor fell disorganized however thanks to once again easterly shear and dry air that managed to get into Igor's core circulation and weakened into a tropical depression. This wouldn't last however, as a blowup would occur later that night with cloudtops as cool as -90C began developing over the circulation and quickly regained tropical storm status on the morning of September 10th, 2010. Igor began to gradually intensify throughout the day into a 50 mph Tropical storm and had the look of a system just ready to intensify even quicker.


On September 11th, the storm began to quickly intensify into a 70 mph Tropical Storm by 5 pm later that day. It quickly became a Category 1 hurricane by 11 pm September 11th. Igor suddenly underwent a completely stunning period of explosive intensification. By 11 am September 12th, 2010 the storm became a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane and by 2:30 a Category 4 hurricane. I'll just let the pictures explain this one.



(note the pinwheel effect in the last one, Igor nearing Category 5 at this point)

Igor developed characteristics of an Annular hurricane, and did not weaken but maintained strength as the day progressed. This hurricane was a true monster! I have never seen a Hurricane with this good looks since Hurricane Dean. This was a true beast and whats more it was all eye-candy to us, as it was no were near land.


On the 14th Igor once again went under a period of intensification going from a 135 mph Category 4 to a 155 mph Category 4 later that night. I am very sure that Igor was a Category 5 hurricane late on the 14th, ALL satellite estimates had Igor as one and lets be honest here.. Igor was measured to have obtained a peak of 155 mph, it takes 156 mph to become a Category 5 hurricane. There is no real proof that Igor did not strengthen 1 mph more on September 14th, and I contend this was our first Category 5 since Hurricane Felix -- certainly the strongest hurricane since Hurricane Dean. Well, Igor weakened slightly on the 15th of September as dry air managed to once again get into its core and was down to a 135 mph Category 4 hurricane throughout the 15th of September thanks to an eye-wall replacement cycle too. Igor got very massive, one of the largest hurricanes on record in terms of TS wind field and began to turn NW towards Bermuda and Canada.

(Hurricane Igor mid-day on September 15th, 2010)

Igor on the 16th of September once again managed to intensify slightly into a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane but there was still dry air and cooler waters it had to deal with and the hurricane did had clearly peaked in intensity as it moved to the Northwest. By September 17th Igor had continued to grow in size and prompted Tropical Storm warnings for Bermuda and Hurricane watches as Igor weakened again to a 125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

(Igor on the 17th of September 2010)

By September 18th Igor lost its eye and most of its core as shear from a trough began to impact it as it itself impacted Bermuda with strong winds and dangerous waves. Igor at that time's spiral bands nearly reached the US coastline.. that thing was absolutely massive!

(Igor weakening as it strikes Bermuda)

Igor continued to become less organized and hit Newfoundland on September 20th, 2010 and became extra-tropical later that day. Igor left a heavy blow there, many trees went down and high winds were recorded there. I believe Newfoundland requested retirement of Igor because of that. Anyways, Hurricane Igor was a true monster and when it was all said and done produced an ACE of 42.4 and at peak had gale force winds up to 920 miles, the largest ever recorded in a tropical cyclone. We will probably never forget Hurricane Igor.. lets just hope the next time we get another Igor it stays well out to sea again!

This ends my update for the day.

CybrTed, have a happy Thanksgiving.

2010 - Year in Review. Part Two. Danielle and Earl 11/23/10

By: CybrTeddy, 10:46 PM GMT on November 23, 2010

Good afternoon and welcome to my 2nd seasonal review for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season! I will attempt to provide an in dept analysis of storms Hurricane Danielle - Hurricane Karl. The time period this season between Aug 24th - September 18th was truly astonishing, we not only saw 5 major hurricanes in that time frame but we did not have a single 24 hours of not having a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic ocean. This was because of the major unbalance of heat throughout the world thanks to the La Nina and the lack of hurricanes in the Pacific. We saw during this time period the upward MJO completely refuse to leave our basin, something I only saw in 2005, because of that unbalance in the basins. That is why we started cranking out Cape Verde storm after Cape Verde storm with the exception of Hermione, that spawned from Tropical Depression 11-E.

The seasons first major Hurricane -- Danielle.
August 2010 so far was proving to be relatively quite after TD5 formed, then the National Hurricane Center began tracking a tropical wave just off Africa that was moving westward. There was strong model support for this wave, particularly the new upgraded GFS, for this wave to move off Africa and develop into a tropical cyclone. We saw at that point several models showing Earl and Fiona right behind Danielle and I figured during this time that this was when we'd see multiple storms again and again, and I was right.


The wave continued to become better organized and by August 21st, 2010 the wave had gained enough organization to be declared Tropical Depression 6. The depression was relatively disorganized, thanks to the presence of easterly shear over the system causing the Low Level Circulation to become exposed away from the convection.

(TD6 organizing slowly into Tropical Storm Danielle)

By 5 pm August 22nd, the storm had enough organization to be considered Tropical Storm Danielle, the 4th named storm of the season. Danielle at that time was moving towards the NW at 12 mph with a pressure of 1005 mb. Overnight the storm relatively quickly intensified any by 5 am that morning Danielle was a 60 mph Tropical Storm, thanks to the shear lessening over the system. It was at that time the NHC predicted that Danielle would become an 85 knot Category 2 hurricane in 120 hours.

(Danielle strengthening over the open Atlantic on the 23rd)

It was estimate by 5 pm August 23rd that Danielle became the 2nd hurricane of the season at the time was moving WNW at 17 mph with a pressure of 987 mb and winds of 75 mph. The storm continued to intensity and by 5 am August 24th Danielle became a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Danielle at that time was predicted to become a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane by 72 hours.


However by 11 am, Danielle unsuspectingly weakened thanks to some dry air that managed to get into Danielle's core and by 5 pm Danielle weakened back down to a Tropical Storm, with winds of 70 mph and a pressure 993 mb.

(Tropical Storm Danielle late on the 24th)

At 11 pm, a blowup of convection was seen over the center of circulation and Danielle was estimated to again have obtained Hurricane status in the late hours of August 24th moving to the WNW at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Hurricane Danielle continued to strengthen throughout the night and by 5 am on August 25th was a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane, maintain that strength throughout much of the day and began its re-curvature out to the NW. By 5 am on August 26th, Danielle became a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane.


Late on the 26th, Danielle underwent a period of rapid intensification and by 2 am August 27th Danielle became the 1st major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, moving towards the NW at 12 mph. Danielle maintained the look of a classic and strong Cape Verde hurricane, and continued to strengthen further into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

(Danielle near peak intensity, well out to sea)

Danielle did not strengthen during the 27th and slowly began to weaken the next day passing well to the east of Bermuda on the 28th but was close enough to prompt Tropical Storm watches for the island. Danielle went extra-tropical on the 30th of August.

Hurricane Earl nearly hits the East Coast.
Hurricane Earl was the 2nd strongest storm this season, forming out of a tropical wave while Danielle was slowly becoming a Hurricane. Right behind Danielle, Earl wasn't really able to intensify much through the 27th of August 2010.

(Tropical Storm Earl mid-day on the 27th US time, dry air and moderate shear inhibited strengthening)

By the 28th however as the Islands issued hurricane warnings Earl began to slowly strengthen and was a 65 mph Tropical storm by 11 pm that night. Earl was slightly squeezed throughout the day thanks to outflow from Hurricane Danielle. But this wasn't a blessing, as a weaker storm has a tendency to go more west. Earl promised to bring a deadly blow to the islands as a Category 2-3 hurricane, perhaps stronger at that time. It had all the right environmental conditions and could have even entered the Caribbean. The governments in the islands and Puerto Rico issued hurricane warnings on the 29th as Earl strengthened further into a hurricane.

(Freshly upgraded Hurricane Earl on the 29th of August)

Earl strengthened throughout the day on the 29th and by 11 pm the 29th Earl was already a Category 2 hurricane striking the islands and moving towards the WNW. Early on the 30th of August Earl began to undergo very rapid intensification, and by 11 am August 29th 2010 Earl became the seasons 2nd major hurricane with winds of 120 mph. The conditions in the Leeward Islands were very rough, as they were hit directly by the eyewall. Thankfully the islands there were more than capable of protecting its people from major hurricanes like Earl.

(Hurricane Earl on the 30th of August)

Earl continued to rapidly intensify and by late on August 30th Earl became a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Earl was a very large hurricane, but thankfully began its turn towards the NW sparing Puerto Rico from a catastrophic blow but the Leeward Islands suffered a very bad blow with heavy damage. Through August 31st Earl maintained its strength as it moved well away from the islands.

(Category 4 Hurricane Earl on the 31st of August, signs of a EWRC beginning to take place)

On the 1st of September Earl weakened to a Category 3 hurricane but promised to strengthen even further the next day. By 5 pm Hurricane Earl finished its Eye-wall replacement cycle and began to strengthen and was a Category 4 hurricane once again by late September 1st, 2010. Earl's eye was much bigger this time, and had the potential to even become a Category 5 hurricane. Overnight Earl began to strengthen further and was a very powerful, large and very dangerous hurricane not to far off the East coast. By this time a trough was moving towards the East coast and it was likely that the Northeast would be spared a direct hit.

(Earl at its peak of 145 mph 928 mb early on September 2nd)

By the morning of September 2nd Hurricane Earl once again underwent an eyewall replacement cyclone and it appeared that the strengthening episode was complete. The storm weakened throughout the day thanks to the shear being created by the trough steering Hurricane Earl out to sea.. and Earl was a 110 mph Category 2 by late on the 2nd. On September 3rd Earl was a Category 1 hurricane, passing well to the East of New England and made landfall in Canada on the 4th of September, going extra-tropical later that day.

2010 - Year in Review. Part One. Alex - TD5 11/20/10

By: CybrTeddy, 1:50 AM GMT on November 21, 2010

Good evening and welcome to my 1st review for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. The tropics are quite. No tropical cyclone development is likely for the next 10 days. With that I would like to review the entire season, and each system.

The 2010 season early predictions
The season lived up to most of its early season predictions. Having cranked out a pretty impressive 19-12-5. This makes the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season the 3rd most active in recorded history, something that I didn't even expect. NOAA in May predicted that we were going to see anywhere from 14-24 named storms, a pretty wide range estimate. Dr. Gray's CSU team predicted that we would see at least 18, same with TSR. I predicted at that point slightly less, with 17 named storms. I did not view the season as being what it did, but I still knew that the season would probably be active.

The year starts off with a bang -- Hurricane Alex

Hurricane Alex the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the month of June developed in a similar fashion to Typhoons do in the Western Pacific. Over the month, heat was being pilled in the Caribbean and had to be released at one point or enough. TCHP and SST's in June were already at record highs comparable to that of the 2005 season.

The disturbance that formed Hurricane Alex was first mentioned on the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook on June 21st, 2010.


The invest was dubbed 93L, and gradually over the next day began to organize. It was noted to have a 50% chance of formation the following day.


93L was slow to organize, and its MLC and LLC were quite far from each other. On June 24th, 2010 the LLC managed to gain heavy convection over it and the National Hurricane Center upped the odds to 60%.


93L became Tropical Depression #1 on June 25th after recon found a small but closed circulation covered in very deep convection. TD1 quickly organized, becoming a Tropical Storm later named Alex and quickly ramped up to a 60 mph TS as it made landfall in the Yucatan. Overnight the system weakened and the next day the system had weakened to a Tropical Depression.


Almost as soon as the system emerged over water again it regained strength into a tropical storm and began to only slowly strengthen, thanks to dry air that was located over the Bay of Campeche. Alex was at that point predicted to become a Category 1 hurricane as it made landfall near the Rio Grande in Mexico/Texas border, similar to strength and intensity Hurricane Dolly did two years earlier.


As Alex neared landfall.. it quickly began to strengthen. Obtaining Hurricane status late on the 29th of June and getting even better organized as the 30th went on. Eventually right before landfall Alex obtained its peak as a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane with an amazingly low pressure of 946 mb.. making Hurricane Alex the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the month of June only behind Hurricane Audrey. This was incredible to see.. not only did Alex at peak intensity have such low winds for a system with such deep pressure -- 946 mb is Category 4 pressure -- but the size was immense!


Alex made landfall on UTC July 1st as a Category 2 hurricane. It later weakened as it moved inland and eventually dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico. Hurricane Alex caused a high ~2 Billion dollars in damages and killed 18 people in Mexico.

Tropical Depression 2 forms on the heels of Alex

A few days later, another system formed in a similar manner to Alex, Invest 96L, but did not managed to develop by the time it made landfall in the Yucatan on the 5th.


96L moved into the Gulf Of Mexico and began to organize further. By the 7th it was noted to have a 80% chance of becoming 02L.


96L became TD2 later that night, but as soon as TD2 was declared it lost most major thunderstorm convection and was barely recognizable on satellite.. sparking controversy about how quick 96L was declared a Tropical Depression. The sudden lack of organization TD2 had was likely due to it going right over the cold waters up welled buy Hurricane Alex a few days earlier, and the major reason why TD2 never became Tropical Storm Bonnie. TD2 made landfall in Texas the next day, without ever have becoming a Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm Bonnie -- the only named storm to hit the US in 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie could be traced back to a Tropical wave with virtually no thunderstorm activity crossing over the Atlantic. As soon as the tropical wave hit the TUTT it gained convection just north of Puerto Rico and the NHC upped the odds on July 20th to 60%, however the wave did not have a closed circulation


Over the next day the system became slowly better organized and on the 22nd, it was declared Tropical Depression 3 while over the Bahamas.


TD3 was quick to become Tropical Storm Bonnie the following day, but Bonnie never really got going even with extremely high TCHP over it. This was due in part because of an ULL that plagued it through its entire life. Bonnie made landfall in Florida as a 40 mph Tropical Storm and quickly died out over the Gulf of Mexico.


Tropical Storm Colin threatens Bermuda

The tropical wave that would first spawn Tropical Storm Colin was mentioned on July 29th, dubbed Invest 91L.


91L gradually organized over the next few days, facing favorable conditions and low windshear and was eventually raised up to a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. 91L was a complex situation, given that there was two tropical waves interacting with each other to spawn this new system. The first wave mentioned was actually 90L, but was absorbed into 91L



91l Continued to gradually organize and on August 1st was declared Tropical Depression 4 and shortly there after Tropical Storm Colin. Colin had serious problems with its forward speed, being caught in the LLJ (Low Level Jet) it was forced rapidly westward at 25-30 knots which was incredible to see. Because of Colin being so weak at the time of its formation, Colin quickly opened up into a wave and advisories were discontinued for a time.

The remnants of Colin gradually moved westward, then WNW to the north of the Islands and towards Bermuda when it regained its Low Level Circulation and quickly re-strengthened into a 60 mph Tropical Storm. Shear to the north caused Colin to be ripped in half, and advisories were once again discontinued as the system neared Bermuda.


Tropical Depression 5 forms in the Gulf
A few days after Colin, a cut off low formed in the Gulf of Mexico over Florida and gradually moved into the Gulf of Mexico towards the Keys. The system was first mentioned on the 9th of August.



The low was declared Tropical Depression 5 as it was in the Gulf of Mexico on August 10th. The system had similar problems to that of Bonnie a few weeks earlier, and did not manage to strengthen in the Gulf despite the National Hurricane Centers predictions. TD5 made landfall without having become Tropical Storm Danielle. The system however was forced back to the south after it made landfall, and with a powerful anti-cyclone, and re-emerged into the Gulf of Mexico were it was given a 60% chance of development. But TD5 didn't regenerate, as the anti-cyclone that it had moved off of it, shearing the system with 20 knot shear and eventually killing it.

Next Review
I will review Hurricane Danielle - Hurricane Karl on my next review sometime next week

CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.