CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Active Southern Hemisphere, 2011 January predictions. 1/23/11

By: CybrTeddy, 1:06 AM GMT on January 24, 2011

Good afternoon and welcome to my update for SUNDAY January 23rd, 2011 - first blog of the year! The 2010 Hurricane season has been over for 2 months, yet the Atlantic isn't the only place were there is active cyclones! I don't have much access to models in the southern Hemisphere, actually none, so if your reading this and you could provided some useful links it would be very helpful! Anyways, over the past few days I've been monitoring Tropical Cyclone Wilma (not to be confused with 2005's Hurricane Wilma). Wilma became a little ragged this morning, shear and dry air where obviously playing a huge roll on the circulation, Wilma took a very angular shape, looking like a perfectly cut in half circle with its CDO. Its CDO is also indicative of the surrounding problems -- dry air appears to be entraining into the circulation of Wilma. Judging by the satellite loops, Wilma has reorganized and appears to be on its way to becoming our equal of a Category 1 hurricane before weakening as it nears cooler waters, higher shear, and more dust.


Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Anthony is struggling with shear. Satellite shows that Anthony LLC is exposed, with the majority of the convection located towards the west of the circulation. That being said it appears judging by the forecasts that Anthony's going to strengthen and take an unusual path, doing a virtual 180 and head instead of East, west. Anthony could also become our equal of a Category 1 hurricane as it nears already heavily flooded Australia. Huge problem of course.


2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season
It is looking like another active one folks! All the ingredients are once again coming together for a year similar to that of 2008 and 2001. SST's are well above average, especially off the African coastline. The ENSO predictions are saying either Neutral or La Nina come mid-summer and its probable that this will hold true.
The ENSO Wrap-Up stated the following.
ENSO Wrap Up
One of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence the climate of the Pacific Basin.
Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropical cloud amount, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of 2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917-18 (+24.4), with the 1975-76 La Niña value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010-11, 1975-76, 1917-18, 1955-56 and possibly 1988-89, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record.
During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period, while summer daytime temperatures are often below average, particularly in areas experiencing excess rainfall.
The current event has contributed to the extremely high rainfall which has affected large parts of Australia during spring and summer, including recent widespread flooding in Queensland, New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria. Long-range forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that the La Niña is likely to persist into the southern hemisphere autumn season.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is limited during the months from December through to April.


SST's remain very low in the 3.4 zone, La Nina holding strong.



The thing is, the conditions put in place in the Hurricane season are always determined by the end of the winter, late March, we're just a little over halfway into the winter. The La Nina could either strengthen or totally collapse by then but if this pattern holds, we're looking at another active season. Maybe not as active as the record breaking 2010 and 2005 season but still perhaps on the same caliber of 2008.

Number of Storms: 17. Number of Hurricanes: 10. Number of Major hurricanes: 6

Hang on everyone! 128 days to go!

CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.