CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

Arlene makes landfall - July outlook 6/30/11

By: CybrTeddy, 4:15 PM GMT on June 30, 2011

Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Thursday, June 30th 2011. Our only system out there is Tropical Storm Arlene which currently is inland into Mexico. Arlene peaked at 65 mph, 10 mph short of Hurricane status. Satellite showed that Arlene was becoming much better organized right as it made landfall and if it had 5 more hours over water, it would have probably become our first hurricane. Its not often that we get storms in June in two consecutive years, whats interesting though is just how similar Arlene and Hurricane Alex truly where in development. Both storms developed in the last week of June from a monsoonal low interacting with a tropical wave that made landfall in the Yucatan (In Alex's case though it was already a Tropical Storm) re-emerged over the Yucatan to achieve peak intensity. What's even more interesting than that is the unseasonably ridge that forced Arlene and Alex into mainland Mexico, climatology was defied for the 2nd year in a row. This will be my last update on Arlene, right now however we're at 1-0-0, making us ahead of schedule than normal as the average time for the first named storm is ~July 9th.

(fig 1. Arlene was develop an eyewall right as it made landfall)

July outlook.
Its time now that I post my July outlook as June is pretty much over with. I'll be focusing on the upcoming pattern change, shear, dry air, SST's and the MJO.

Sea Surface Temperatures.
As we head into July, rich and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) are something that are very important for hurricane season. As we head later into the season the SST's get rapidly warmer in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Caribbean as well as the Cape Verde areas. This is what sets up for peak season in August and September, and you might just be able to get storms around the Cape Verde area too in July (more on that later.) It comes as no surprise however, given we're in a neutral year, that SST's are well above average, particularly in the Gulf. Now the 1^C above average SST's in the GOMEX are the responsible reason we had such an active and destructive tornado season, as warm air from the Gulf was much warmer this year and lifted northwards. That caused a much more destructive tornado season that included the catastrophic EF-5's that hit Hackleburg, Tuscaloosa, Smithville, Rainville and of course the most tragic one - Joplin. These above average SST's will continue to persist into July and are a very serious threat. Note the cool tongue however off the Yucatan, that is from Arlene, that should warm up rapidly over the next few days.

(fig 2. SST's as of June 29th, 2011)

Dry air and SAL.
Right now in the Central Atlantic there has been a massive SAL outbreak, this comes as little surprise given the downward MJO phase they're in over there. There's less precipitation so sand is more prone to just fly off the African coast and into the Atlantic resulting in a SAL outbreak. However heavy SAL in July is to be expected, as it often comes around this time of year. As we progress later into the season, SAL shouldn't be as big an issue then. However it will choke tropical waves emerging off Africa in July, limiting development until we get an upward MJO pulse over the region.

(fig 3. SAL analysis as of most recent)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation phase.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical convection that propagates eastward over the planet. When the MJO is over our basin, it creates convection. It is rare that a system in June develops without the MJO and sure enough the MJO is over us now when Arlene developed. This MJO upward phase is still just entering our basin and should continue to stay in our basin for the next few weeks. That increases the chances of development in the month of July. That will also as it reaches Africa cause SAL bursts to be less frequent and allow for stronger tropical waves.

(fig 4. MJO prediction from the GFS)

My predictions for the month of July.
I believe that the month of July will be much more active than normal based on the factors I just mentioned in my blog update. I think that July will see at least two named storms towards the middle to end part of the month and if the models show something soon maybe even 3 storms this month. I think that we will also see a hurricane this month. There is also the above average likelihood of a Cape Verde system this month, the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles in the long run have been showing a pattern change, shows above-average heights to develop over the central Atlantic, this would force westerly shear and SAL northward away from the ITCZ and cause that same belt of shear to actually start to enhance storms outflows, or better known as increased ventilation. This setup is similar to July 2008, our analog year. It is possible that if a Cape Verde storm forms that could be our hurricane that I'm predicting as well, as the central Atlantic should be favorable by then. Another place of concern is Caribbean Cruisers, that might form by the Lesser Antilles and move into the Caribbean at a low latitude like Dennis from 2005 did in the month of July.

(fig 5. formation points for the first half of July.)

I will keep you all informed.

CybrTed

Tropical Storm Arlene organizing quickly 6/29/11

By: CybrTeddy, 2:12 PM GMT on June 29, 2011

Good morning and welcome to my tropical update for Wednesday, June 29th, 2011. We have our first named storm in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Arlene. Arlene is currently located as of the 8 am advisory at 21.8°N 95.2°W, Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph with higher gusts, and further strengthening is expected right up to landfall. On satellite Arlene has the appearance of a quickly strengthening tropical storm with winds closely near the center with a well defined circulation. Tropical Storm Arlene has been used now for the record 10th time in history, never has been retired from this naming list.. probably because its pretty rare unless you have a powerful June storm or the season is late and the first 'A' is a major (Andrew), to have a 'A' storm retired. On a personal level, its also eerie to be using ''Arlene'' again, I first was on Weather Underground in 2005 so I remember tracking Arlene and all the extremely devastating and destructive hurricanes that came after it in that incredible Hurricane season.

(fig 1. Tropical Storm Arlene on SSD floater 1.)

Intensity forecast of Arlene.
The intensity forecast is as always problematic to predict, mostly because storms in the Bay of Campeche often rapidly develop into powerful storms. This is because the Gulf coast of Campeche aids the cyclonic counter-clockwise motion that is associated with these storms. Its geographical shape helps sends the winds directly into the circulation, causing for quick intensification. Alex, Hermine, and Karl are all good examples last year of this happening and they also all winded up quickly as they neared landfall. That could be the case here. The latest SFMR from the recon shows that Arlene is a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm and strengthening will be reflected in the 11 am advisory package in less than an hour or so. Arlene will probably strengthen at a quicker rate as well today as she nears the coastline. There's an outside chance that Arlene could approach or obtain hurricane status as it makes landfall, so hurricane watches could be required for the Mexican coastline later today.

(fig 2. Model intensity forecast as of latest advisory package)

Track forecast for Arlene & which model got it best?.
We're getting pretty close to landfall, so it shouldn't be gaining much northerly latitude today. Already it appears that Arlene has turned west and is heading straight for the Mexican coastline. We could see as it approaches landfall the system bend WSW slightly as it makes landfall. But other than that, the models are all in agreement that landfall will occur tomorrow morning or maybe even tonight and quickly dissipate overland.

(fig 3. Model forecasts for Arlene)

Out of all the models in developing this storm, its probably a draw between the ECMWF and GFS though the ECMWF could be the victor here given its high degree of accuracy in its track, time of being classified and time of landfall. The NOGAPS is the clear looser here, it dropped it days ago and never developed it again until it was actually named, and even now the NOGAPS doesn't recognize this as even a Tropical Storm at landfall. The CMC did okay with this, but dropped it for the longest time too and was mostly in suite with the GFS. The GFS caught this system first however, two weeks in advance and we had a good idea even then where it was going to go if it actually developed into a named storm.

CybrTed

SPECIAL UPDATE Tropical Storm Arlene forms 6/28/11

By: CybrTeddy, 12:04 AM GMT on June 29, 2011

Good evening and welcome to my SPECIAL UPDATE for June 28th, 2011. There we have it folks, Tropical Storm Arlene has formed from 95L. Arlene is currently located 21.2N 93.7W, maximum sustained winds are 40 mph. Tropical Storm warnings are now in effect for the Mexican coastline. On satellite, Arlene has become better organized to be classified as such. What happened was the recon I mentioned earlier went out to 95L and found a closed LLC, prompting the NHC to upgrade the odds to 90%. Later, convection increased just recently over 95L prompting it to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene, the 1st named storm of the likely very active 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season. We are now on pace with our previous year, 2010 and analog year 2008. Normally, the 1st named storm of the season forms in mid-July so we're ahead of schedule.


The forecast.
The models are all in agreement that Arlene will continue in a WNW direction towards Tampico with a landfall just north of Tampico. Throughout the day shear has decreased and dry air has retreated north to allow this system to become Arlene. You have a upper level anti-cyclone providing ventilation over Arlene. A ridge to the north however will prevent this system from heading into Texas. The NHC track is aligned with the models, bringing this in north of Tampico but what was interesting is their intensity predictions. The NHC currently predicts Arlene will become a 60 mph Tropical Storm. Now, if Arlene can manage to stay over water longer than that there's a possibility it could become a stronger system than that even. However some steering current images show that Arlene is moving more of a westerly direction than what the NHC is showing, which could make Arlene stay overland longer than expected. If that's the case, then Arlene should peak at only 50 mph. But if it stays on course, perhaps even more like I said, we could be dealing with a 65-70 mph TS. There's a very small possibility this becomes a Category 1 hurricane, but I doubt it highly.


I'll have a much longer update tomorrow morning.

CybrTed

95L getting better organized in the Gulf of Mexico 6/28/11

By: CybrTeddy, 2:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2011

Good morning everyone and welcome to my tropical weather update for Tuesday, June 28th, 2011. Our main focus today is Tropical Invest 95L, currently located at approx 19.8 92.7W. Maximum sustained winds have increased according to the latest fix to 30 mph, with the pressure down to 1006 mb. On satellite there is signs of organization, however there is no real well defined cloud pattern that infant, developing monsoonal look is very prominent. You have cloudtops just firing all over the circulation, expect it to gain a better structure as the hours go on today. I do not think 95L will become TD1 today, but in the early hours of tomorrow morning, with landfall late that day as Tropical Storm Arlene maybe late tomorrow or early Thursday. The Bay of Campeche is famous for these types of storms, its geographical shape allows for the winds to curve back into the circulation and causing systems to rapidly strengthen - Alex, Hermine, and Karl for example all from last year.


Run down of the models.
The GFS is just like yesterday, perhaps a tad stronger with its closed isobars. GFS shows a 1004 mb closed low, probably a Tropical Storm at this point, nearing landfall in Tampico. I must reiterate that the GFS did pick this system up first over a week ago and had a chaotic time keeping onto this system, but it has since picked up with it with unanimity. The GFS ensembles also take the system on a similar path to what the GFS is showing at this time, taking it towards a landfall just north or on Tampico with maximum pressures down to ~1004 mb, which is probably a weak tropical storm being reflected on that run. Its always a good sign for track when the ensemble means and the global model reflects one another.


The ECMWF is still holding strong with this system, bringing it down to a 1001 mb low as it makes landfall with several tight closed isobars indicating that this system has a well defined circulation. The ECMWF did very well with this system, even though at first it didn't sniff it out it eventually did and recognized the correct pattern before all the other models did. The ECMWF ensembles also are in agreement with the ECMWF operational, showing a 1003-1001 mb Tropical Storm making landfall in Tampico.


The CMC continues to also indicate that this system will become a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall, and brings it up to that status by tomorrow morning with a very tight 1005 mb low approaching the Tampico area. It shows the system making landfall as a 999 mb moderate tropical storm, and its showing like I said how the Bay of Campeche can ramp up storms by sending all the winds back into the circulation, thanks to its geographical shape. The CMC ensembles are also in agreement with this solution, bringing a moderate Tropical Storm into once again, Tampico. The NOGAPS however is once again the outsider, refusing to at all develop this system and its probably going to prove to be totally incorrect. The NAM & DGEX also show development of this system.


My forecast for track and intensity.
As we've gotten closer and closer to tropical cyclone genesis in the timeline, we've gotten a clearer and clearer picture on what this system was probably going to do. Right now there's an upper level trough to the north of the system providing dry air into the system, as well as providing some shear over the NW quad of the system. This upper level trough is predicted to lift out from its current location and gradually move out of the Gulf of Mexico. There are two ULL and a ridge around it, one in the GOMEX another to the north of Puerto Rico causing a ridge to develop right over 95L. This is providing 95L with a nice ventilation to cause the system to get going into a full fledged tropical cyclone. The only thing against this is time, it has until Thursday at the best to hurry up and develop into a tropical cyclone and we could see that happen as early as tonight. The NHC is giving this a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours and are planning to send in a recon in less than an hour. I'm giving this a 70% chance of development, given the favorable conditions and organizing structure of the system. I think that this system however won't become that strong of a system, at most becoming a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm before landfall in Tampico so if anyone from there is reading this blog, you don't have to be worried. After that, the system should dissipate quickly overland. If your in SE Texas you 'might' get some rain out of this, though its a stretch to say for sure where its going to go with its precipitation.

As always, I'll keep you updated. If the recon finds an organizing system near TD status later today then I'll be updating my blog with a special update.

CybrTed

95L a threat to develop in the Bay of Campeche 6/27/11

By: CybrTeddy, 6:25 PM GMT on June 27, 2011

Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Monday, June 27th, 2011. Our main area of focus today is just-declared Invest 95L. 95L is currently located at 200N 910W with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph. Pressure is probably around 1007 mb or so at this time. The circulation of 95L is broad and disorganized, and probably not closed off at this time. However since my last update, 95L has grown better organized with the circulation all stacked up over each other in the circulation over the BOC. The National Hurricane Center has just upped the odds to a 30% medium chance for development in the next 48 hours and expect those chances to increase as time goes on the next few days. All in all, it probably has a 55% of ever becoming Tropical Depression #1 or Tropical Storm Arlene.. which is much better than it had before the weekend started, where it was more or so 10%.

(current view of 95L)

Run down of the models.
The GFS has once again come back onboard with a moderate TS hitting the Tampico area. The GFS finally got a clue, because on all the previous runs it was bringing this system far to south with too little development. The GFS peaks this out as a 1003 mb Tropical Storm ''Arlene'' before weakening it over the highlands of drought stricken Mexico. This is certainly appearing the most likely scenario at this time as this system churns in the Bay of Campeche.

(latest 12z GFS, 36 hours has Arlene poised to make landfall)

The ECMWF continues to be with developing this system, provided if the 12z doesn't spin up a surprise. The ECMWF shows a Tropical Storm also hitting the Mexican coastline, around 1004 mb, and gradually weakening it overland. I must give the ECMWF props on this, because when all the models dropped it, it picked it up and showed a consistent track that made sense and the models eventually joined it. Once again, the ECMWF has proven it is by far the most reliable model out of all the global models. The CMC also now has regained development of this system, showing a 1001 mb low striking the Mexican Coast, making it the most aggressive model on this system by far. The CMC has been persistent on a more northerly track too from its inception on this storm, but it dropped it with the GFS and NOGAPS. The NOGAPS however, has absolutely refused to develop this, which makes me think that the NOGAPS is out to lunch with this system, and should gain it eventually. If not, the NOGAPS did the poorest with this system.

(00z CMC, showing Arlene striking the Mexican coastline)

Summary of the models.
3/4 of the major models indicate that 95L will develop into Tropical Depression #1 or Tropical Storm Arlene. 95L is currently very disorganized, with a very broad circulation and limited convection over the circulation. That circulation needs to tighten up fast so that we can get a system out of this. Another thing is all the models continue to predict that the landfall will happen just north of Tampico, where I must give the ECMWF again props for nailing that because when the GFS, CMC and NOGAPS showed this system just diving into the SW BOC without any development the ECMWF showed this system striking exactly where the model consensus indicates 95L will hit. So, given that so far the ECMWF has been the most reliable with this system it serves us to watch that with particular interest.

(current TC probability odds)

My prediction and intensity forecast.
I believe that this system will at least make a close run at Tropical Depression #1 or maybe even Tropical Storm Arlene. However, it will not be very strong at most, a 45 mph Tropical Storm if the models verify. This system will take all of today and all of tomorrow to get better organized, trying to get that low pressure area to consolidate into a much less broad circulation, and fighting off the dry air to the north that is getting into its circulation a little bit. That will limit its intensity significantly, with at max a 45 mph Tropical Storm from this system. Landfall appears to be judging by the current steering maps and what the models are showing, to be about 50 miles north of Tampico. The more north 95L goes the more likely it is to get stronger though. It would be nice if 95L could make some part of its moisture get into SE Texas, as they need rain and they need it fast. The drought there has reached an all time high.

Elsewhere in the tropics.
Elsewhere the models are starting to hint at the possibility of a trough split to originate in the GOMEX and move over Florida, providing more rain, then out by the East Coast. The CMC and NOGAPS have shown in earlier runs that this system could become a Tropical cyclone, so we have to watch that. It appears likely that as the MJO phase will get stronger according to the UKMET, that we could have a very active July with maybe 3 storms forming, on pair with 2008's activity. We could even see a hurricane, maybe even a major hurricane develop next month. After 95L does its thing, I will post a detailed prediction on what July might bring.


CybrTed

Still watching the Caribbean 6/26/11

By: CybrTeddy, 4:44 PM GMT on June 26, 2011

Good afternoon and welcome to my blog update for Saturday, June 26th, 2011. The tropics are finally starting to wake up with a system worth watching in the Caribbean, though extremely disorganized and very weak. Surface pressures are not falling at this time and develop is extremely low in the next 24 hours, however this is the system that the models were showing, were I say because the NOGAPS and CMC dropped it, so did the GFS and ECMWF for a while but are now back onboard with a weak TS. This system should bring heavy rains for the Yucatan and head into the Bay of Campeche on Monday.

(area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan coast)

Run down of the models.
There's not strong model support with this system, at least not compared to what we had last update. The GFS shows little development on the 12z, but begins to develop this system by Wednesday into a 1005 mb Tropical Storm then moving it inland. The other day, the GFS completely dropped this system and showed on development, and has slowly gotten onboard once again. The CMC and NOGAPS fail to develop this system. The ECMWF however is the exact opposite with what we were dealing with and is now the most aggressive model with this system, making it also a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall on the Gulf coast of Mexico. This is an interesting turn of events by the models, while it hasn't completely dropped the system like they did all at once for 94L they all at one point yesterday did not show development of this system, and here they are again with the two most reliable models showing any real development of this. I have a suspicion though that there will be increased model support from the CMC and NOGAPS as this system heads into the Bay of Campeche, which means that development chances go up. None of the models show this becoming a significant system, which is good news because that means there won't be a hurricane bearing down on someone anytime soon.

(12z GFS 72 hours, weak TS in the Bay of Campeche)


(00z ECMWF 96 hours, moderate TS making landfall in Mexico)

Possible analog storms
When one looks at storms, its natural to look back in the past and see what storms where similar to this setup. The setup is similar still to Hurricane Alex, where you had a weakness being closed off by a ridge over the Gulf and forcing the system westward into the Mexican coastline. One storm I think however will be very similar to this, if it does develop that is in terms of track and intensity, is Tropical Storm Bret from 2005, a weak low pressure center developed right before hitting the Yucatan and eventually span up in the Gulf of Mexico and become a weak TS right before landfall, but did not cause any real damage. This path and intensity is what the ECMWF is showing, and if this does develop will probably be what this storm looks like. So, Bret is probably our best analog storm when it comes to intensity track, and time frame.

(Tropical Storm Bret from 2005)

My predictions for track and intensity.
This system in the event it does even develop, will not become anything more than a 45 mph Tropical Storm. I will to all who are used to the term 'to eat crow', I will eat crow if that happens. This system is monsoonal, so it will take a while to get its act together and once it does it will be on Wednesday right before landfall so we could see a TS out of it right before it hits then quickly dissipating over the high mountains of Mexico. Track will be probably towards Tampico, Mexico or right around there. This system is not a threat for anything but heavy rains and some squalls for the areas threatened.

After this, what's next?
Our next opportunity for a named storm could come next week even, but there's little to indicate so on the models. I'd watch for trough splits in the GOMEX however as the setup is good for that to occur. The upward MJO will hang around in our basin for at least another week or so, providing increased convection so its probable we could see another storm in 10 days or so. Again, there's nothing on the models currently to indicate this but its a possible situation. Another place to watch for another storm will be again, in the Bay of Campeche where you could see monsoonal development again take place. Models have also been hinting at this.

We'll see what happens!

CybrTed

Eyes peeled on the SW Caribbean 6/24/11

By: CybrTeddy, 2:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2011

Good morning and welcome to my blog update for Friday, June 24th 2011. Today we will be focusing on the SW Caribbean which is showing its true colors now, as the upward MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) comes around to our basin, octane 1&8. This is providing upward motion in the form of convection not being suppressed as much as you have been seeing in the Caribbean. Water temperatures are plenty warm down there too to support tropical mischief and sure enough the two areas we were watching have sort of merged into a single mess of shows and thunderstorms down in the SW Caribbean. This is the first signs of an actual system instead of just one indicated by the models and we need to be watching this area very closely.


Run down of the models.
The 06z GFS is indicating that this area of storms will begin to move WNW-NW away from the SW Caribbean and by the time it reaches the Yucatan it will be a full fledged Tropical Depression or maybe even a tropical storm depending on how slow it moves. The GFS indicates the weakness to the north from that trough in the Gulf will be able to pull this away from hitting Central America. After that it has done a nearly 180^ turn from what we were dealing with it showing yesterday. It now indicates that the system will be like what the ECMWF is showing, the ridge will build in and force the system southward, way southward while keeping it weak. Somehow, I don't think it will be that down far south, because its showing it even more south than where Karl made landfall and I don't think that's quite likely but we'll see. The more time it spends over water the more time it will have to organize given its monsoonal nature.


The 00z CMC is continuing to be well, the CMC. It has a 994 mb system hitting the Mexican coastline. Now what the CMC is assuming is that the ridge won't be able to fill in, in time to force the system that far south as the GFS is indicating rather it has the system getting some more latitude over the Yucatan and emerges and then makes landfall in Mexico farther north than the GFS is showing. However the intensity might be a bit extreme though it is possible that we could at max see a 60-70mph Tropical Storm Arlene from this area.


The 06z NOGAPS again shows the same thing as the CMC, although not as strong it shows the system making landfall in the coast of the Yucatan after slowly taking shape in the Caribbean while showing the possibility that before the Yucatan this system could get organized enough to be declared a Tropical Depression or maybe even TS Arlene. After that it indicates once again that the ridge will close off that weakness to the north from that trough in the GOMEX and pushes it to the west once it gets into the Gulf. While in the Gulf the 06z NOGAPS continues to organize this into once again a 1000mb low while striking the Mexican coast which is a fairly moderate tropical storm. The 00z ECMWF was slightly stronger this run, with a 1005 mb low in the GOMEX but still is the most southern solution, with the system making landfall in the extreme SW GOMEX. However what's interesting to note is the ECMWF ensembles that show the model spread mean is much further north indicating that the ensembles believe that it wont be as far down as the ECMWF operational has it going. I think that the ensembles might be more correct in this case, because it doesn't show the ridge closing off that quickly and that strong in that timeframe, so its defiantly a solution. The unreliable UKMET is once again stormless in Seattle.

(00z ECMWF operational shows a system in the BOC)

Summary of the models.
The models all indicate with the exception of the UKMET that a tropical disturbance will develop over the weekend and head towards the Yucatan due to the trough to the north that is providing a weakness enough for it to be steered away from Central America. Most models with the exception of the ECMWF and UKMET show this system making a run or achieving Tropical Depression status as it makes landfall in the Yucatan which certainly is a possibility if it really takes advantage of those warm SST's that are in place in the Caribbean right now. Afterwords, it shows it making landfall over the Yucatan and emerging on Tuesday. That's when things get tricky especially as we get farther out, but all the models indicate that the ridge will build back in to close off the weakness to the north and force the system westward into the Mexican coastline. The models split on intensity, the CMC being the strongest and the ECMWF being the weakest with a low-end TS.

My forecast for intensity and track.
I think that we will see this area in the SW Caribbean mentioned by the NHC sometime within the next 24 hours, with a 10% yellow circle perhaps as soon as 8pm tonight. The convection throughout the morning as been steadily gaining intensity with -80C cloudtops forming indicating deep tropical moisture down there. This area will more than likely be tagged invest 95L over the weekend as it begins to be drawn slowly north by that weakness. There is a good chance that by Monday morning this system could be making a run at TD status as it makes landfall in the Yucatan, and could be at 'red' alert by the time it strikes. I do not think however this system will become Arlene, if it does, until it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The setup is still analogous to Hurricane Alex in 2010, but also could be similar to Tropical Storm Bret (2005), which also formed in a similar time frame and the models are showing it moving in a similar direction. I think however that the models might be off here on this one, as the GFS and ECMWF show the system going to far south to quickly. I do not think the ridge will be that strong or build in that quickly rather I think it will build in enough for the system to be forced WNW over the Yucatan the emerge then begin to strengthen. This seems like a probable solution to me. What's interesting to note is that normally for this time of year systems that form in the SW Caribbean are drawn northward into the Yucatan channel then into the Gulf of Mexico. Its strange to see for a 2nd year in a row a pattern setup that causes systems to be forced into Mexico. I do not think back to intensity this system will be that strong, given just how extreme the conditions and how far south this system is likely to go that we will see a Category 1 or higher system out of this, rather at most a 60-70 mph Tropical Storm that makes landfall in 160 hours or so. It is difficult to determine how strong this thing will get though, and its certain that areas of Central America and the Yucatan are in for quite a bit of rain next week.

As always, we'll watch it closely.

Arlene possible next week 6/23/11

By: CybrTeddy, 3:40 PM GMT on June 23, 2011

Good morning and welcome to my tropical weather update for Thursday June 23rd, 2011. Again, not much going on in the tropics today as we only have a few areas to talk about however two of those areas promise to come together and make some sort of disturbance by the weekend, perhaps an invest, near the Yucatan. What I'm talking about is the Tropical wave in the Central Caribbean now and the monsoonal circulation that is situated over the SW Caribbean. As these two begin to interact over the next few days they should form a tropical disturbance and gradually move NW under the influence of a weakness to the north. This is what is indicated by all the models, which now has nearly unanimous support and consistent for development next week.


Run down of the models.
The GFS like I said in my previous updates was the first to pick up on this solution and has continued to be very aggressive with this system. The GFS begins developing this system in the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan by 96 hours or so before moving it inland into the Yucatan. The system remains over the Yucatan for a day before finally emerging at 144 hours and begins to intensify, probably to Tropical depression status already. By 192 hours, the system is a 999mb strong TS making landfall in Texas. What it continues to show however doesn't make a lot of sense and probably is to far north with this as it shows the ridge in place similar to what Alex saw but does not force it as far south as Alex did.


The CMC is very aggressive with this system this run, making it a potent hurricane. I am not sold on that happening because the conditions would really have to be in place. The CMC, again like the GFS begins to develop this system off the Yucatan by 96 hours before moving it inland, though its worth noting that the CMC has it stronger than the GFS does before moving it into the Yucatan, and moves it over the Yucatan before moving it over open waters at 102 hours. By 138 hours it really begins to ramp it up taking it up to hurricane status pretty quickly, and by 144 hours you have it nearing Texas as a good sized hurricane. I'm thinking this is just the CMC being well, just the CMC. It did this a lot last year with systems that didn't become anywhere near as powerful.

(CMC again, showing a powerful system by 144 hours which is probably too aggressive)

The NOGAPS is also again onboard with this system becoming a Tropical Storm. What the NOGAPS does is just like the CMC and GFS, has a system begin to take shape at 90 hours or so near the Yucatan coast and takes it inland before emerging the next day over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and begins to gradually strengthen it. The NOGAPS is similar to intensity as the GFS is this run, making it a 1000 mb TS while moving inland into Mexico. This is a very possible solution, and the one I'm more inclined to believe too because it shows the ridge pushing it away from Texas but doesn't push it as far south as the more-than-likely to far south ECMWF does. If this pans out it could mean a lot of rain for Southern Texas and Mexico, something they all desperation need.

(NOGAPS, similar to the GFS)

The ECMWF is the weakest and farthest south with this, which isn't surprising given how its just jumping onboard but what the ECMWF shows is this system just chugging WNW into the Yucatan, does not gain any latitude due to the strong ridge over it and pushes it into the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico without becoming anymore than a moderate Tropical Storm. I think this is to far south, because all the other models indicate this storm will be influenced in the Caribbean by the weakness that the ridge is just building in to replace, where as the ECMWF shows the ridge probably building back in too quickly and makes the ridge too powerful. However its a scenario that certainly is possible, though in my opinion it isn't as likely to happen. The UKMET is the only model that I can find that doesn't develop this system, but given that the ECMWF is just hoping onboard it makes sense to see the UKMET jumping onboard later today or tomorrow as we get closer to development.

(The system weak and very small in the SW GOMEX)

Summary of the models & possible intensity and track.
I believe that there is a good chance that we will see Arlene next week. The models are in good agreement that a disturbance will develop over the weekend and into Monday probably as an invest, then develop into either a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm as it hits the Yucatan coast before weakening as it moves over the Yucatan. They all indicate that this system will become stronger in the GOMEX, while the CMC explodes this the GFS and NOGAPS make this a strong Tropical Storm with a good amount of rain for Mexico and Texas. The ECMWF is the only other model that develops this and does not make it a very powerful system but does develop this into a tropical cyclone and gets it stronger each run. The models are showing what we would look for in development, consistency and intensity. I believe that this system will get going by Monday and be influenced northward over the Yucatan by the weakness in the ridge that should build back in and head towards Mexico very similar to Hurricane Alex last year. The setup is very similar to Hurricane Alex, another reason why I think the ECMWF is too far south with this system, because you have the ridge over the Central US, a trough up in Canada and a weakness off of Florida that is going to influence this system north. I do not think however this system will become as large or as strong as Alex did, given just how extreme the conditions have to be for a system of that intensity to really get going in the month of June however, it bears some scrutiny and we will watch it.

What might July bring?
After this system develops, the MJO will still be in our basin in early July which indicates that we will probably have an active early to mid July. I think personally that we will see 3 storms next month, and possibly one of those being a Cape Verde system and another being a hurricane, heck if 2008's one of our analog years there's a possibility that it will be the Cape Verde system that will be the Hurricane like Hurricane Bertha. The pattern in place does indicate that we will see more Cape Verde systems earlier this year and they could be much stronger than Colin, similar to Bertha. There is also the possibility of a trough split off Florida in the very long range too for the next place to look for development after this system. The GFS was showing this happening by early July and moving over Florida and out to see, and now only hints at that happening but still is worth watching.

We'll keep an eye on it, stay prepared.

CybrTed

Tropical trouble possible next week in the Gulf of Mexico 6/22/11

By: CybrTeddy, 2:48 PM GMT on June 22, 2011

Good morning everyone and welcome to my blog update for Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011. The tropics remain fairly quiet as usual again, we have a tropical wave off the West Coast of Africa near 29W, another near 55W which neither have a chance to develop. However, once again the models are indicating that a system could form next week. This would be right on time for the first named storm to form for an active season like 2011 will be, given that the norm for the first named storm is late-July we would be ahead of schedule. Such a system would likely come from the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, similar again to last year's Tropcial Depression Two.

(Tropical Atlantic as of this blog post)

Run down of the Models.
The first model to pick up on this solution was the GFS and has been consistently indicating each run that this would happen, and even stronger on the latest 06z run. By Sunday, or in 108 hours there's a 1007 mb low sitting off the Yucatan coast that heads inland and emerges out into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday or 138 hours, the GFS shows that this system gradually begins to strengthen and by Wednesday peaks out as a 1001 mb low at 174 hours, and moves very little. In the very long range, the GFS shows signs of what might be the setup for a very active early July. At 252 hours it begins to show a trough split off Florida that begins 02L, and hits Florida and moves over into the Atlantic. The next day it shows a tropical wave developing into 03L off the African coast. While this scenario is very unlikely given how long range it is, it is something to watch if the models start jumping onboard. We could be in for a very active July.


The next model to have this system is the NOGAPS, which yesterday did a complete reversal and made this a fairly potent system. It continues to do so today, though I can only post up to 144 hours by 180 hours it makes it a 1000 mb TS in the GOMEX while moving northward. The NOGAPS does not go far out enough to possibly reflect the GFS's other two systems, so we'll have to wait for these scenarios to get within that time frame to actually seriously consider this a threat. Up to 144 hours though on the NOGAPS, the system is off the Yucatan coast and moves inland, probably a Tropical Storm at that point and moves over into the Gulf and heads northwards towards the US coastline as a Tropical Storm.


The CMC dropped this system overnight, though yesterday it was very potent with this system making it a 998 mb low. The UKMET doesn't have anything which doesn't surprise me, given it only goes out to 120 hours. The ECMWF hints at a system now finally, showing a weak and very broad low in the GOMEX in the similar time frame as the GFS and NOGAPS do but it does not show development as of yet of this system.


Summary of the models & possible track and intensity.
Right now as it stands only two models really develop this system into a potent tropical cyclone and both do so next week. I think this system has a decent chance of developing if the models continue to be persistent with making this a tropical cyclone. We will probably have to start looking for this system on Saturday if the NOGAPS scenario pans out, in the Western Caribbean. This system will move slowly and meander while making landfall in the Yucatan. If we believe the GFS scenario right now we'll see this system emerge and gradually strengthen while striking the Mexican coastline. If we believe the NOGAPS scenario this system could go in a similar path to Tropical Storm Arlene (2005) once in the GOMEX. Both of these patterns are typical June storm tracks, and both need to be taken with a grain of salt as they change every model run. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF continues to get onboard and has a strong system as well, that would indicate that we're far more likely to see a system as time goes on. I do not think this system will be all that strong, rather will be a 50 mph TS that brings much needed rain to the GOMEX. However its worth noting that SST's in the GOMEX are 1^C above normal and that spells trouble for any system that can get in there when the Gulf has low wind shear. Regarding the two other systems the GFS shows, it is again far to out to be taken a serious threat but its starting to show a possible pattern that might be in place for the first week of July.

As always, we'll watch with caution.

CybrTed

Models finally hinting at tropical mischief in the Atlantic 6/21/11

By: CybrTeddy, 8:32 PM GMT on June 21, 2011

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my blog update for Tuesday June 21st, 2011. The tropics remain quiet, there are a few tropical waves out there that do bear some scrutiny but don't really pose a threat to develop at this time. Hopefully they can provide moisture to the Gulf of Mexico. However, what I wanted to talk about was that the models are finally starting to show hints of mischief in the tropical Atlantic near the Yucatan next week. The most aggressive and shortest time frame to do so is the Canadian (CMC), with the GFS and NOGAPS following suite. The ECMWF however only hints at an area of low pressure developing in the Bay of Campeche and does not really get anything going. That does not surprise me in the slightest however, given that the ECMWF in pre season setups is usually the last one or so to get onboard with development.


(Tropical Atlantic at this hour on June 21st, 2011)

Rundown of the 12z model runs.

12z GFS has this system, which it was the first to pick up on this. Over the week or so, the GFS indicates that moisture will begin to increase in the BOC with some small areas of low pressure developing in a semi-stationary movement. By 144 hours things get really interesting, you first have a 1007 mb low off the Yucatan in the Western Caribbean that could be our next invest, next Monday. It moves inland and emerges into the BOC, where it gradually organizes into what could be 01L or ''Arlene''.

(12z GFS system at peak intensity)

12z CMC follows in a similar fashion, you have a buildup of heat in the western Caribbean that finally builds up into a tropical cyclone just to the east of the Yucatan and organizes before moving inland into the BOC. The system gradually organizes and becomes a fairly potent system too, with pressures down to 998 mb in the latest run.


12z NOGAPS is very weak with this system but does follow a similar path to the CMC and GFS, has a system that tries to get going in the Western Caribbean and moves it over the BOC. ECMWF and UKMET do not indicate a system on the latest runs.

Summary of the models & possible track.
The models that develop this system indicate that this low could get started as soon as Monday, which is 6 days from now. That's pretty far off and the models have just begun to mention this system. What we need to look for is intensity and consistency. You can have a very intense storm on one run but if it shows nothing on the next that's bad consistency, something you don't look for for good model support. This system could get started in the Western Caribbean just off the coast of the Yucatan and slowly move over the Yucatan and into the BOC, this is similar to last year's Tropical Depression Two which didn't become Tropical Storm Bonnie simply because it got in the cold water wake path of Hurricane Alex which went over the area just a few days prior. If this happens again nothing should really impede this from becoming Tropical Storm Arlene. If it develops it should go in a slow movement towards the N-NNW perhaps towards Texas which would be great. As you all are aware, Texas is in a serious drought right now and anywhere would be great for a nice soaking system like this could mean.

Signals for the rest of the season.
Several factors are starting to come into play for a very active and potential very destructive season. One thing I want to direct your attention to is that the Gulf of Guinea has taken a 180 turn from previous trends, and has cooled off rapidly. What does this mean? This means that more heat will be consolidated over the Cape Verde islands area, allowing a lot of energy and a pattern for very powerful Cape Verde hurricanes, like what we saw last year with Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia which all where Category 4 hurricanes.

(Gulf of Guinea cooling visible on the far right hand of your screen as that blue cool tongue.)

Another factor remaining in play is the ENSO, which now indicates that the La Nina event of 2010-11 has ended and we are now in neutral conditions. Here's the summary of the models from the IRI.


This year should remain neutral and could reverse into La Nina again next year for the beginning of 2012.

CybrTed

So what does a quiet June mean for Hurricane season? TS Beatriz 6/20/11

By: CybrTeddy, 6:10 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Monday June 20th, 2011. There is once again absolutely nothing going on in the tropics and no models are predicting development in the next 7 days, and anything beyond that is unreliable. That means we could close out June with no named storms, though if you can recall we were talking this time last year about no named storms in June and Alex popped up from a monsoonal system in the Caribbean. However, if we do close out with 3 goose eggs (0-0-0) what could that mean for Hurricane Season?


Previous June years
Last year of course we saw Hurricane Alex, a powerful Category 2/3 Hurricane with a pressure of an unbelievable 948 mb for June, nearly the same pressure as Hurricane Audrey. However looking back 15 years one will see that inactive years like 1997 featured a named storm in June and very active years like 2008 (although Arthur formed in May and crossed into June it did not develop in June) 1998, 2000, 2002, & 2004 featured no storms in June and did not reflect seasonal activity. June accounts for maybe 1% of a season activity, July also doesn't matter much.


I still however wouldn't discount the possibility of a named storm in the next two weeks, why you ask? As we head forward in time the Monsoonal trough situated over Central America will be attempting to retreat north and perhaps over the SW GOMEX, where there is ridging predicted to build over an area of large heat build up from multiple tropical waves. This will be like an anti-cyclone over the system protecting it from high wind shear and giving it favorable conditions. Such a storm would move very slowly and skim the Mexican coastline as I mentioned in previous updates, and perhaps bringing much needed rain to Texas.

(average paths for named storms in June.)

Tropical Storm Beatriz likely to become Hurricane Beatriz.
Things are picking up in the Eastern Pacific with the formation of their 2nd named storm, strengthening Tropical Storm Beatriz. As of the 11am PDT advisory, Beatriz is located at 16.6N 103.4W, maximum sustained winds are now 65 mph with higher gusts and it appears promising that Beatriz will become a Category 1 hurricane today before skirting the Mexican Coastline. A Hurricane watch and warning are in effect for a large portion of the Mexican coastline.

(latest past shows Beatriz building an eyewall)



CybrTed

Tropics are dead quiet 6/18/11

By: CybrTeddy, 5:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2011

Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Saturday, June 18th 2011. There's hardly anything to report out there in the Atlantic, there's an area of convection near by the Yucatan that is producing moderate to strong showers. Tropical wave at 4-8N, 23W-32W that is producing light showers and another wave at 10N-14N 50W-63W with a nice moisture field but no real threat of development. The Atlantic is in a lull, thanks to the downward Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse that has been taking grip across the basin, however the upward pulse is now moving in and right on cue the Eastern Pacific is firing up again. In the Eastern Pacific, you have 92E with a 60% RED alert on it, which will probably become TD-2E in the next 48 hours. The EPAC season will be much more active this season that last, should have about 15 or 16 named storms this year on pair with the Atlantic.

(Tropical Atlantic at this hour)


(Current MJO as of June 17th)

Now, onto the models. The GFS is still hinting at development in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a possibility as 92E moves out, there will still be a bunch of energy associated with the monsoonal trough over Central America. Tropical waves that I mentioned earlier could begin to interact with the monsoonal trough and form some sort of tropical low in the SW GOMEX. There should be a anti-cyclone that should be near this system however it wont be directly ontop of this, so it wont be giving this system much breathing room thanks to the ridge kind of squashing it to the north. This system should move very slowly and could draw north towards Texas thanks to the way the models are positioning the ridge for it to draw north. I really hope something does come out of this, whether it be an invest or a Tropical Storm because Texas needs this rain, the drought there is incredible and if they don't get rain soon I fear the drought could be one of the worst in decades.


One thing I would look towards is off the US East Coast for trough splits over the next few days, its possible something could spin up there.

CybrTed

Watching for monsoonal development in the Gulf next week 6/16/11

By: CybrTeddy, 3:27 PM GMT on June 16, 2011

Good morning all and welcome to my tropical weather update for Thursday June 16th, 2011. Once again, the tropics remain quiet. There are a couple of tropical waves that I would like for you all to pay attention too however, one in the Caribbean and one off Africa. The first wave in the Caribbean has a sharp and well defined axis to it and will be heading into the monsoonal trough the next few days. The other wave will also be heading into the Caribbean in the next 6 days or so and will also add to the heat buildup in the Western Caribbean right when the upward MJO (Madden Julian-Oscillation) will be returning to our basin. Right now a lot of energy is being bundled in the Eastern Pacific just off the coast of Mexico associated with newly declared invest 92E which will probably become Tropical Storm Beatriz in the next few days or so. As this system lifts out a lot of heat will be left behind and will begin to bundle up with the monsoonal trough which is currently situated over Central America.



(MJO still predicted to return to our basin)

Now as expected as this scenario goes forth the models are beginning to pick up on a solution for our first named storm perhaps. Right now the strongest is the GFS, which during the 06z run indicated that a 1006 mb low or so will begin to develop over the SW GOMEX by Tuesday and just sit there for the next few days. By 180 hours or so its a full fledged Tropical Storm hugging the coast of Mexico heading towards, hopefully, Texas. I say hopefully because that area of Texas is in an extreme drought and needs this badly.

Right now the GFS is the only model indicating that this will become a full fledged TS but remember the GFS was the first one to pick up on this pattern beginning to develop and has been consistent with it happening so it bares watching with scrutiny. Like I said, this system will be probably lifting slowly north and moisture could be sent into Texas due to a trough to the north beginning to lift it out of the BOC.


Conditions currently in the BOC are currently not conducive for development with 40 knot shear blowing over the GOMEX, that should change however as we get closer to development.


This is a classic monsoonal setup that we're seeing here, so again development of this system will be very slow and very gradual. It wont be impressive at first but it will begin to slowly organize if it does happen at all. What we need to see is also model support increase for this system as just one model isn't enough to say 'okay, this has a serious chance of happening', basically don't get excited over this yet because it could easily die off and nothing could happen until the first week of July just as the MJO begins to leave our basin. Lets hope that any storm in the Gulf though remains weak and heads towards Florida or Texas because they remain in a serious drought that just seems to not want to go away.

CybrTed

Watching for Arlene later this month 6/14/11

By: CybrTeddy, 2:19 PM GMT on June 14, 2011

Good morning and welcome to my update for Tuesday June 14th, 2011. The tropics are once again quite, with no models indicating anything will try to develop in the next 5-6 days. This is the time however where we start looking for development in the last few weeks of June and there are hints growing that may happen. The GFS & CMC long range has been indicating that a nice area of high pressure will begin to develop over the Yucatan, this is a classical setup for monsoonal development similar to Hurricane Alex back in June 2010. A tropical wave that is just exiting Africa could interact with the monsoonal trough in the Caribbean in 10 days or so and spur some tropical mischief down there. Your going to see over the next week tropical waves pass through the Caribbean and add to the heat buildup in there and allow for some monsoonal development.

(Hurricane Alex 2010, a prime example of intense monsoonal heat buildup exploding)

The MJO still looks on to return at the end of this month too, right when that tropical wave emerging off Africa will be entering the monsoonal trough in the Caribbean. All the long range hints and ingredients are starting to come together for some real mischief in the next 12 days or so. While there is no guarantee there might be something down there next week its time we start paying attention to what the models are hinting at. SST's in the Caribbean are VERY warm, and would support a tropical cyclone down there without a doubt.

(Empirical wave propagation GFS forecast for the MJO)


(SST's as of Jun 13th, 2011)

We're still in for quite a lull in activity however, so sit tight everyone I suspect we'll get our first named storm by the last week of June.

CybrTed

The Atlantic is quiet 6/12/11

By: CybrTeddy, 2:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2011

Good morning and welcome to my tropical update for Sunday June 12th, 2011. There's not much to report out in the Atlantic since 94L got deactivated, no models are at all predicting that there will be a cyclone in the Atlantic for the next 7 days so we're in for quite a lull period. This can be linked to the downward Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) period that we're in for the next few weeks until late this month. The downward MJO causes suppressed convection in the Atlantic, and history has shown that within the last 30 years only 1 storm in June has developed in a downward MJO phase.




Lets take a look at the SST's in the Caribbean, given that 94L sat around the central Caribbean for days taking up heat buildup I'm quite surprised that they still are as warm as they appear to be. The Gulf of Mexico also is well above average as usual, thanks to the extreme dry weather the SE CONUS has been seeing the last months it will likely remain record high. TCHP in the Western Caribbean is also rather high, higher than in 2010 actually this time which is concerning. The TCHP and SST as of the last few weeks have taken a disturbing turn for the worst, we're starting to see TCHP and SST's exceed 2010 in some areas. Once that upward MJO phase comes through I have little doubt that we might see our first named storm. That might not be in June but in early-July.

(SST Jun. 11, 2011)

(TCHP Jun. 11, 2011)

So what does an inactive June mean for hurricane season? History shows us it means very little. The average 2009 season saw no named storms, and it did have a slightly-below season. In the last 15 years however, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, and most recently, 2009 had no storms in June. Only 2006 and 2009 had average seasons, and indeed 1997 had a system in June and only had 8 storms that season. Point being, there is absolutely no real correlation between a inactive June and an active hurricane season. Same with July too as we learned last year in the 2010 season, with only TS Bonnie developing that month. 2010 had 19 named storms in total with storms developing almost continuously starting August 21st and ending in October which was insanity to see.

I think that we will see a storm this month, or the first week of July, during the upward MJO phase. This system will more than likely come out of the Caribbean like 94L and be monsoonal in nature and will take a long time to develop. However it is likely that the conditions 94L faced will not be present in late-June and we will see more heat buildup thanks to tropical waves passing through the area.

CybrTed

94L fails to develop, Adrian in the EPAC 6/8/11

By: CybrTeddy, 4:39 PM GMT on June 08, 2011

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my update for Wednesday June 8th, 2011. I haven't again posted in a while because until the last 24 hours or so there hasn't really been any news with 94L. However, in the last 24 hours 94L died thanks to high wind shear and a lot of dry air punching into its core. 94L never had a lot of things going for it and what was worse was the model's starting dropping 94L left and right until it had no model support whatsoever. Development of 94L is no longer expected, and no models show anything developing in the next 8 days or so. This is June so I don't expect Arlene until the end of this month in a similar manner to Alex in the Caribbean I suspect, monsoonal development.

Meanwhile, we have Tropical Storm Adrian, the 1st named storm of the Pacific Hurricane season, in the Pacific right now. Adrian in the last few hours has really pulled together and is almost a hurricane. Adrian is undergoing a period of rapid intensification, and is excellently organized with good outflow on all quadrants of the system. As of 8 am, Adrian is at 12.9N 100.8W with maximum sustained winds at 70 mph. Adrian is very close to becoming a hurricane as I said, and should be one by the days end perhaps even stronger. Adrian is moving relatively slowly towards the North-west at 5 mph.


I fully expect Adrian to at least approach major hurricane status in the next 24 hours before being hampered by adverse conditions. Adrian should move out to sea with no real harm to land.

Other than that, there is nothing really interesting to note in the tropics right now and we're in for quite a lull now that the downward MJO pulse is moving in.

CybrTed

94L in the Caribbean 6/4/11

By: CybrTeddy, 1:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2011

Good morning everyone and welcome to my update for Saturday June 4th, 2011. I haven't posted in a few days because nothing has significantly changed suddenly, but there has been gradual development in the SW Caribbean with Invest 94L. We also had 93L that gave Florida some beneficial rains on the 1st of June, but to me wasn't very likely to develop and was not worth posting an update. Over the last few days, the disturbance now known as 94L has gradually begun to develop with the 850 mb vorticity beginning to increase and convection instead of being all over the place has begun to consolidate and latest IR shows -80C in the convection. However, the convection is not over the main circulation thanks to higher wind shear and dry air impeding significant and rapid development.


94L over the past 24 hours has become better organized to sum it up, and will probably continue to do so with a fixed anti-cyclone over the center of circulation. The last ASCAT however shows only a broad area of cyclonic turning and no real closed low level circulation (LLC), prompting the NHC to only have 94L's potential at 30%. I think that is fair for the time being though I suspect those probabilities will rise by the days end to maybe 40%.

(Shear as of 1200UTC)

The model support for 94L has been conflicting to say the least. The CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET all indicate that 94L will develop into a Tropical Storm and gradually drift around in the Caribbean while the GFS and ECMWF fail to develop this system. I'm honestly not surprised that the GFS and ECMWF dropped 94L about 24 hours or so before it was tagged, they did this often last year as invests spun around. Point being, I think we need to focus on the models that are showing the consistency with development rather than the GFS and ECMWF right now given the track record they have with maintaining development. Now, predicting a possible strength for this system I highly doubt that 94L will become anything more than a 50 mph Tropical Storm before being sheared to death and bringing much needed rains to people who need it. I think that this system 'could' also develop or at least get close to developing into a system by Tuesday evening, June 7th.

I haven't a real clue where exactly 94L might even go especially judging by what the models are showing this morning. Climatology would indicate that 94L should gradually drift around in the Caribbean, given the high that's situated that's causing hardly any flexibility in the steering currents. Basically, I expect 94L to stay in the Caribbean for the majority of next week whatever it becomes. The jet stream will gradually and has been gradually lifting north allowing 94L some room. If I had to guess on a future track, its possible that 94L will be picked up by a trough and influenced north-east wards towards Cuba.


To summarize. 94L is gradually developing into a system that could develop into Tropical Depression #1. I do not think in the short term that dry air and shear will impede gradual development but will defiantly make sure 94L doesn't become a Tropical Cyclone in the next 24-36 hours at least in my opinion. All eyes keep on the Caribbean the next few days.

CybrTed


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.