HurrikanEB's WunderBlog

Arthur (and a Suprise?)

By: HurrikanEB, 4:32 PM GMT on May 31, 2008

Arthur
Currently 8 AM EDT
POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

Arthur continues to barely hang on to tropical storm status, but his hours are limited. It now appears that Arthur may not re-emerge into the Bay of Campeche, because he is taking a more westerly path, and instead there is a growing likelyhood that Arthur will dissipate over southern Mexico. More information can befound at the National Hurricane Center Link

Suprise?
Arthur has had his fair share of suprises from forming over land to forming from the rements of a Pacific storm to lasting thus far as a tropical storm, and he may have one more up his sleve. Based on current satalite imagey and loops it looks as though Arthur has left behind some strong convection in the Gulf od Hondoras. Bel ieve it or not some of this convection seems to be aquiring some spin of its own. With this being said I will be keeping my eye on this area for the next few days.



Current foresast track and warnings

National hurricane Center's 8 AM EDT advisory:

WTNT31 KNHC 011131
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM ARTHUR...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WOULD REMAIN OVER LAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME



Rest of The Tropics

In the western Pacific the once powerful Typhoon Nakri has significantly weakened over cooler waters and is now a minimal hurricane.
And in the far eastern atlantic we have a not-too-shabby-looking tropical wave currently moving to the west at 10 knots. This wave has some nice mid-level rotation, but is lacking in the covection department. Still my be worth watching for a little while.






The latest Tropical Cyclone Danger Graphic shows the area of the southern Gulf of Mexico where Tropical Cyclone formation is possible in the next day or two.


___________________________________________________________________________________________________ _
Discovery Launch Set to GO!

Today's space shuttle Discovery launch is set to GO!Go!Go! Disovery and her 7 crew members Mark Kelly, Ken Ham, Ron Garan, Mike Fossum, Karen Nyberg, Gregory Chamitoff and Japan's Akihiko Hoshide will lift off on their way to the International Space Station at 5:02 PM(EST) this afternoon. The focus of the 14 day mission will be to install the 37 foot billion dollar Kibo lab. Once instelled the lab will be the largest room in the space station. The mission will also focus on repaining a malfunction in the station's toilet, a malfunction that takes 10 minutes and 2 people to flush liquid waste-how inconvienent is that?!

How does a space toilet work anyway?
Well because of the lack of gravity they use a flow of air and not water. Astronauts just strap them selves down and...well...let it go. A funnel and hose contraption allows both male and female to urinate standing up.

According to Wikipedia solid waste is distributed in a cylindrical container which is then exposed to vacuum to dry the waste. Liquid waste is vented to space.

Today's launch will mark the 10th mission since the 2003 Columbia Disaster, there will be 10 more missions until the Space Staion construction is completed in 2010.

Today's launch, with Karen Nyberg, marks the 50th woman in space.

Here's a link to Discovery's July 4, 2006 launch video
Link


Discovery sits ready to launch during pre-launch preparations


The Space Shuttle Columbia Crew. L to R: Brown, Husband, Clark, Chawla, Anderson, McCool, Ramon.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________




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Tropical Storm Alma (sets records) arrives...and departs

By: HurrikanEB, 10:42 PM GMT on May 29, 2008

Tropical Storm Alma
The area of convection near central america that most modles had been develpoing became organized enough yesterday to be classified as tropical depression 1. The system did end up developing on the Pacific side of Central America. Advisories on the first depression of the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane season began at 8 PM Pacific Day light time. The system was upgraded to Tropical storm Alma 12 hours later, while 55 miles south west of the capital of Nicaragua. After quickly strengthening to a peak of 65 mph Alma made landfall near Leon in Nicaragua around noon today(PDT).

Forecast

The lastest forecast for Alma calls for a continued northward track into Hondoras and then a northwesterly turn. The storm circulation should dissipate late Friday over Guatemala.-Basically the storm center should stay over northern central america. This, however, is not the end of Alma's affects. The storm has, and still is, pulling in lots of moisture from the Pacific. Heavy rains will be a big problem from Costa Rico to Mexico's Yucatan Penninsula. Up to 20 inches of rain are forecast for the mountainous areas of these countries, which will lead to "life-threatening flash floods and mudslides". Rain from the system will also be felt in Jamacia and parts of Cuba. The formation of Tropical storm Alma significantly decreases the chances of anything forming in the Caribbean in the near future. There is a slight chance of Alma's circulation regenerating in either the Gulf of Mexico or Northern Caribbean, however, this is very highly unlikely with chances less than 10%. Up to date info. can be found at the National Hurricane Center Link

Some potentially campareable Central American storms include:
Bret...1993...45 mph...$37 million(2008 USD)...184 deaths
Ceasar...1996...85 mph(at landfall)...$53.6 million...67 deaths
Adrian...2005...75 mph(at landfall)...4 deaths

Record

According to the national hurricane center's 8 PM(PDT) advisory on May 29 Alma has set a few records.
Frist tropical storm to make landfall on the Pacific coast of central america.(Adrian of 2005 made a landfall in Hondoras, but as a minimal hurricane.
First tropical cyclone(regardless of strength) to make a landfall on the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.
The furthest east that a tropical cyclone has made landfall in the Pacific basinLink





Link
Just prior to landfall Alma was beginning to show an eye feature.

Other areas
Western Pacific.
In the West Pacific Typhoon Nakri has been quickly strengtening over the past two days. the storm is currently located several hundred miles east of the Philippeans and is the equivilant of a strong catagory 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The storm will weaken over cooler waters the next couple of days as it recurves to the north east, without affecting any land areas. The storm is producing 30 foot waves.

Eastern Atlantic.
We are starting to see some pretty impressive storms starting to roll off the African continent. Right now, however, it appears that they are still a little too far south to get enough spin to develop.


Typhoon Nakri with 145 mph winds


Impressive wave

-----------------------------------------------------------
The rest is the same as yesterday.

Good afternoon, everyone.
Today is May 29, 2008 so that means that there's only 3 days left until the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season gets under way. With hurricane season so close everyone in areas prone to hurricanes should be wrapping up with this year's preperations, however, if you're not quite done yet here's a quick check list to help you along.

First determine your evacuation plan.
In the event of a hurricane where will wou be evacuating to? Do you know anyone who lives there? Chances are that if you're evacuating other people will be too, so hotels can become hard to come by.
Will you be heading to a storm shelter? Most shelters will be crowded and don't allow pets-something you may need to consider.
If you do decide to ride out a storm in your home be careful. Determine where is the safest place in your home? What is the flood potential- over half of all hurricane deaths are a result of flooding. Do you live in a wooded area? Near by trees can become a perfect tool for destroying your house.


Second create a hurricane kit.

You're hurricane prepardness kit should include basic things such as a first aid kit, money, flashlights- not candles, and water. You also should prepare important papers such as birth certificates, social security cards, pass ports and insurance policies. These documents should be either laminated or carried in plastic zip lock baggies.

Other things you will need to stock up on are:
At least a weeks worth of food per person
Bug spray (Mosquito Repelants)
Cameras and film- so you can document any destruction for insurrance companies
Personal Hygiene comforts (toothpaste, deoderant, soap,
ect...)
Duct tape (Note: Duct tape does not prevent windows from breaking, it simply prevents glass from totally shattering everywhere. The best thing to do is to use thick plywood to protect your windows)
An air horn (the sound is loud enough to alert people if you become trapped)
Battery operated radios and batteries

Even if you're not along the coast it is still a wise decision to think a head. STORMS DON'T JUST IMPACT COASTAL AREAS. Also, hurricanes are measured by their wind speed (Catagory 1, 2, 3...), just because a storm is considered "not strong" based on their winds doesn't at all mean that it won't be deadly or destructive. A storm's rains are its biggest threat. Flash flooding from storms can reach hundreds of miles inland. Even "weak storms" can cause disasters as was seen with Tropical storm Allison in 2001 Link
Just BE PREPARED.



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Be Prepared and Central America Update

By: HurrikanEB, 8:51 PM GMT on May 27, 2008

Good afternoon, everyone.
Today is May 27, 2008 so that means that there's only 4 days left until the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season gets under way. With hurricane season so close everyone in areas prone to hurricanes should be wrapping up with this year's preperations, however, if you're not quite done yet here's a quick check list to help you along.

First determine your evacuation plan.
In the event of a hurricane where will wou be evacuating to? Do you know anyone who lives there? Chances are that if you're evacuating other people will be too, so hotels can become hard to come by.
Will you be heading to a storm shelter? Most shelters will be crowded and don't allow pets-something you may need to consider.
If you do decide to ride out a storm in your home be careful. Determine where is the safest place in your home? What is the flood potential- over half of all hurricane deaths are a result of flooding. Do you live in a wooded area? Near by trees can become a perfect tool for destroying your house.


Second create a hurricane kit.

You're hurricane prepardness kit should include basic things such as a first aid kit, money, flashlights- not candles, and water. You also should prepare important papers such as birth certificates, social security cards, pass ports and insurance policies. These documents should be either laminated or carried in plastic zip lock baggies.

Other things you will need to stock up on are:
At least a weeks worth of food per person
Bug spray (Mosquito Repelants)
Cameras and film- so you can document any destruction for insurrance companies
Personal Hygiene comforts (toothpaste, deoderant, soap,
ect...)
Duct tape (Note: Duct tape does not prevent windows from breaking, it simply prevents glass from totally shattering everywhere. The best thing to do is to use thick plywood to protect your windows)
An air horn (the sound is loud enough to alert people if you become trapped)
Battery operated radios and batteries

Even if you're not along the coast it is still a wise decision to think a head. STORMS DON'T JUST IMPACT COASTAL AREAS. Also, hurricanes are measured by their wind speed (Catagory 1, 2, 3...), just because a storm is considered "not strong" based on their winds doesn't at all mean that it won't be deadly or destructive. A storm's rains are its biggest threat. Flash flooding from storms can reach hundreds of miles inland. Even "weak storms" can cause disasters as was seen with Tropical storm Allison in 2001 Link
Just BE PREPARED.

Central America Update
The area of storms located in the southwest Caribbean and in the East Pacific has become a little more organized today. There are now two main areas of low pressure. The first one, and "stronger" of the two is Located near 10.0N and 90.0W in the Eastern Pacific with a pressure of 1008 millibars. This area has been designated as 90E, the first 2008 E.Pacific invest. Link The system is currently moving very little, however, it should slowly move over central america during the next few days. While conditions are favorable for development the system is very broad, so any development should be slow. The NHC currently has the system under a 20-50% chance of development.

In the second area is located in the southwestern Caribbean. This area of showers is currently having a harder time developing and maintaining its convection than the E.Pacific system. The main truble that this system faces is high wind shear and dry air across the northwestern Carribean. It is forcasted to take a slow track to the north.

This image shows the two ares of disturbed weather. Invest 90E is located near 10.0N, 90.0W and the Caribbean disturbance is located near 12.0N, 80.0W



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Opening BLog

By: HurrikanEB, 3:30 AM GMT on May 27, 2008

Hey everyone, this is my first blog, so it won't be long. To start things off...I've always been interested in clouds and patterns and stuff...I got interested in weather about four years ago...Hurricane Isabel opened the door for me, however it wasn't until the following hurricane season, with Alex, that I really got in to it, and since then I've been hooked.

Currently as I type (11P.M. EST) we have some strong/severe storms across the mid section of the country. A tornado watch is in effect for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. You can use the following link to find more information Link The rain and thunder will push in to the Ohio Valley, North East and Mid Atlantic through tuesday as a cold front works its way south. There is also a chance for scattered showers and thunder storms across the West through out the week.


In the tropics: There is a growing potential for some development in either the east Pacific or the western Caribbean. The next storm name on the list for the E.Pacific is Alma...and the Atlantic is Arthur, both will be the first 2008 storm in their respective basin. Right now it appears likely that anything that does develop will take an easterly track then turn northward.





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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

HurrikanEB's WunderBlog

About HurrikanEB

Name's Ethan. Have been following the weather since 2004.