HurrikanEB's WunderBlog

92l update

By: HurrikanEB, 7:11 PM GMT on August 13, 2008

92l synopsis:
92l is looking much better than it did 24hours ago and it now has decent convection over the center.

Track:
The latest modle runs have 92 passing over or just north of the Greater antillies(hispanola and Cuba), and nearing the central bahamas in 5 days
climatology:
Most depressions that have passed through where 92l is have driven up the greater antillies, into the caribbean and eventually the gulf. only 2 have recurved out to sea.

Intensity:
Some of the modles are now backing off on the intensity forecast for 92 and now hold her as a moderate storm. This forecast seems reasonable for now due to the possible interaction with landmasses.

I, however, am expecting a catagory 1 storm out of this, especially since waters over the bahamas are over 30 degrees celcius.
Still while a southern track appears likely i would still keep an occasional eye on it from the North Carolina outter banks southward incase of a northward bend, which i do not feel comforable ruling out right now. Im also considering the possibility of 92l "overshooting" florida and effecting the northeast gulf in a similar manner as the tracks of Frances and Jeanne of 2004.


Track images:



^above: stearing currents favor a westward motion^

Intenstiy images:



Satelliet:



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

HurrikanEB's WunderBlog

About HurrikanEB

Name's Ethan. Have been following the weather since 2004.