Name's Ethan. Have been following the weather since 2004.
By: HurrikanEB, 7:11 PM GMT on August 13, 2008
92l is looking much better than it did 24hours ago and it now has decent convection over the center.
The latest modle runs have 92 passing over or just north of the Greater antillies(hispanola and Cuba), and nearing the central bahamas in 5 days
Most depressions that have passed through where 92l is have driven up the greater antillies, into the caribbean and eventually the gulf. only 2 have recurved out to sea.
Some of the modles are now backing off on the intensity forecast for 92 and now hold her as a moderate storm. This forecast seems reasonable for now due to the possible interaction with landmasses.
I, however, am expecting a catagory 1 storm out of this, especially since waters over the bahamas are over 30 degrees celcius.
Still while a southern track appears likely i would still keep an occasional eye on it from the North Carolina outter banks southward incase of a northward bend, which i do not feel comforable ruling out right now. Im also considering the possibility of 92l "overshooting" florida and effecting the northeast gulf in a similar manner as the tracks of Frances and Jeanne of 2004.
^above: stearing currents favor a westward motion^
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