The case for a new QuikSCAT satellite

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on March 26, 2009

The QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999, provides crucial measurements of surface wind speed and direction over Earth's oceans twice per day. Forecasters world-wide have come to rely on data from QuikSCAT to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. But QuikSCAT is ailing. Originally expected to last just 2-3 years, QuikSCAT is now entering its tenth year, and is definitely showing its age. The spacecraft's primary transmitter, power control unit, and battery have all failed over the years. The loss of the spares for any of these components will mean the end of QuikSCAT--a satellite that likely provides hundreds of millions of dollars of benefit each year to the public. Just one example of QuikSCAT's value, taken from a recent study (H. Kite-Powell, 2008) wind data from QuikSCAT and the resulting improvements to warning and forecast services save the container and bulk shipping industry $135 million annually by reducing their exposure to hurricane force wind conditions in non-tropical storms by 44% over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Loss of QuikSCAT would result in a 80 - 90% loss in detection capability for hurricane-force conditions in extratropical cyclones.


Figure 1. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.

Alternatives to QuikSCAT
Two valuable alternatives to QuikSCAT are available, but neither can come close to making up for the loss of QuikSCAT. The Windsat instrument aboard the Coriolis satellite (launched in 2003) measures wind speed and wind direction using a different technique. Evaluation of these data at NHC and NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) shown the winds to be unreliable in and around the storm environment. There's also the European ASCAT satellite, launched in 2007. Like QuikSCAT, ASCAT can measure global wind speed and direction twice per day. However, the data is available at 25 km resolution (two times coarser than the 12.5 km QuikSCAT), and ASCAT covers only 60% of the area covered by QuikSCAT in the same time period. QuikSCAT sees a swath of ocean 1800 km wide, while ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. I find it frustrating to use ASCAT to monitor tropical storms, since the passes miss the center of circulation of a storm of interest more than half the time. On the plus side, ASCAT has the advantage that the data is not adversely affected by rain, unlike QuikSCAT.

The need for a new QuikSCAT
Since the loss of QuikSCAT would be such a significant blow, and the alternative sources of ocean surface wind data are of significantly lower quality, NOAA has been pushing for a QuikSCAT replacement for years. Former National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza laudably made a big push in 2007 for a new QuikSCAT satellite. Unfortunately, he made claims about the usefulness of QuikSCAT for improving hurricane track forecasts that were not supported by scientific research, an error that may have ultimately led to his downfall. While there is evidence that QuikSCAT data may improve hurricane track forecasts of some computer models, NHC uses many models to make hurricane track forecasts, and some of these models are not helped by QuikSCAT data. For example, a 2009 model study by Dr. Jim Goerss of the Naval Research Lab found that QuikSCAT winds made no improvement to hurricane track forecasts of the NOGAPS model, one of the key models used by NHC to predict hurricane tracks. QuikSCAT is extremely valuable for many other aspects of hurricane forecasting, though. It provides early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and for defining gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from QuikSCAT is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.


Figure 2. Comparison of simulated wind measurements for the Alaska coast, including Juneau and Sitka. Left: the next-generation QuikSCAT XOVWM satellite accurately retrieves winds in the Inside Passage, including a jet of tropical-storm force winds (yellow colors) along one channel. Right: the current QuikSCAT instrument cannot cover the coast or Inside Passage due to its limited resolution, and underestimates the area covered by winds of 42+ knots by a factor of 2 - 3 (orange colors). There is heavy shipping traffic in the areas missed by QuikSCAT coverage. Image credit: NASA QuikSCAT Follow-on Study.

The best solution: a next-generation QuikSCAT
QuikSCAT is 15-year old technology, and has significant limitations in what it can do. The needs of the weather forecasting community would best be served by launching a next-generation QuikSCAT satellite, called the Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM). This is the solution recommended by the National Research Council in their decadal survey, 2007: Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, page 456.

Some of the limitations of the current QuikSCAT that would be solved by a next-generation QuikSCAT:

1) QuikSCAT has limited spatial resolution, and cannot "see" winds within 20-30 km of the coast. This is where the bulk of ship traffic and fishing occurs. The proposed next-generation QuikSCAT XOVWM satellite would be able to "see" winds within 5 km of the coast.

2) QuikSCAT cannot measure winds greater than approximately 65 mph (a Category 1 hurricane has winds of 74 mph or greater). A next-generation QuikSCAT XOVWM satellite would be able to measure winds up to Category 5 hurricane strength (>155 mph).

3) QuikSCAT cannot "see" through heavy rain. A next-generation QuikSCAT XOVWM satellite would.

Obviously, all of these capabilities would be a huge boost for determining the size and strength of a hurricane, and reduce the amount of uncertainty in hurricane forecasts. The cost of a next-generation QuikSCAT XOVWM satellite was estimated by NASA in a 2008 study to be about $500 million. Ideally, a constellation of two satellites would be launched, to prevent the gaps in coverage that occur with the current single satellite. A two-satellite system was estimated to cost $723 million, as estimated in the 2008 Jet Propulsion Laboratory study, QuikSCAT Follow-on Mission Concept Study (JPL Publication 08-18, April 2008)

The second best solution: a QuikSCAT replacement
A second, cheaper solution that is being considered is to launch a replacement QuikSCAT satellite that has similar capabilities to the current one. NOAA and NASA are exploring a partnership with the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) to fly a QuikSCAT instrument on their GCOM-Water Cycle satellite, scheduled to launch in 2016. Funding must begin in 2010 in order to meet this launch deadline. The proposed QuikSCAT replacement would be able to measure winds as high as 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane strength), and have improved ability to measure winds in heavy rain. The new satellite would have a 20% improvement in spatial resolution. The cost would be less than that of a next-generation QuikSCAT, since the rocket and and satellite are already paid for. However, there are additional costs involved in adapting QuikSCAT to the Japanese engineering requirements. The final costs of such a replacement QuikSCAT have not been determined yet, but would probably be several hundred million dollars.

This is the type of cause that it is important for we as citizens to lobby Congress for. Write your Senators and Representatives! The earliest a new QuikSCAT could get launched is 2015, and the current satellite is probably going to die well before then. Feel free to use the information above, or come up with your own. Thanks!

Contact info for your House Representative
Contact your Senator

References
2007 NOAA QuikSCAT user impact study:

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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535. surfmom
7:50 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:
Still shakin on the other side of the pond again. Tampa, anything happening with Redoubt?

Magnitude Location Time
4.8 Luzon, Philippines 1 hour ago Map
5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 3 hours ago Map
4.3 Northern California 21 hours ago


my goodness, I just spoke w/our surfgodfather there this morning 7:0AM our time
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
534. lakeEFX
4:47 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
I heard on the news this morning that the fireball that people on the east coast saw the other day was a rocket booster from a Russian rocket. It was falling back to earth.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
533. nrtiwlnvragn
4:43 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
New Blog
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
532. HIEXPRESS
4:09 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
"Space Fireballs" are OK, but don't get in the way of one of these. Talk about Weather that'll put one Underground.
"Fermi team members calculated that the blast exceeded the power of approximately 9,000 ordinary supernovae"
A thing like that could ruin your day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
531. Ossqss
4:08 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Don't forget to do your MS and security patches today. Those of you who emulate a windows environment, may want to do some double checking to be sure you are safe. Good luck to all and just hope it is a hoax.
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
530. Ossqss
3:45 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
In a previous post on the ice core sampling, one of the experts referred to the absence of iron particles in the atmosphere and attributed the current increased levels of CO2 in good part to that as compared to the previous natural warming cycles the planet experienced several times over the last several hundred thousand years. Perhaps it's Volcanoes to the rescue time. A very different perspective than what we have been trained to believe. Don't shoot the messenger, I only read this stuff, I don't write it. Please feel free to tear it to shreds accordingly. Link

Then, Supernovae evidence in Ice cores? Yea, next we will have space fireballs flying over the east coast, wait a minute. :)


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
529. TampaSpin
3:16 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:
Still shakin on the other side of the pond again. Tampa, anything happening with Redoubt?

Magnitude Location Time
4.8 Luzon, Philippines 1 hour ago Map
5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 3 hours ago Map
4.3 Northern California 21 hours ago


This the latest report from AVO
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-31 06:46:41

Seismicity at the volcano has been low, but remains above background level. Weak tremor and small discrete earthquakes have been observed in the past hour.


But, since that report Redoubt (is it a He or She) has become a little more active it appears. I would expect another eruption looming soon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
528. Ossqss
3:07 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Still shakin on the other side of the pond again. Tampa, anything happening with Redoubt?

Magnitude Location Time
4.8 Luzon, Philippines 1 hour ago Map
5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 3 hours ago Map
4.3 Northern California 21 hours ago
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
527. TampaSpin
3:03 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting fireflymom:
More Vulcanism may be starting up- Eastern Congo volcanoes show eruption warning signs

Posted 2009/03/30 at 4:32 pm EDT

KINSHASA, Mar. 30, 2009 (Reuters) — Two volcanoes may erupt in heavily populated eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where years of fighting have already forced 1 million people from their homes, scientists and aid agencies said.
A general view of the refugee camp at Kibati at the foot of Nyiragongo volcano in eastern Congo, November 14, 2008. REUTERS/Finbarr O'Reilly


Scientists in Goma, capital of the border province of North Kivu, have in recent weeks registered high levels of seismic activity, considered an early warning sign of an impending eruption, around the Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes.

"There is heavy activity around Nyiragongo, but it's more centered on Nyamulagira, around 13 km (8 miles) away," Dieudonne Wafula, lead scientist at the Volcanological Observatory of Goma, told Reuters on Monday.


I was watching the SciFi channel and it was showing proof how the entire globe including the tropics was froze completely and how Volcano eruptions warmed the earth again by trapping gases. It also pointed out that during normal times Volcano's can cool the Earth. Just a great example that really we know nothing about Mother Earth and Global Warming and Cooling.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
526. fireflymom
2:47 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
More Vulcanism may be starting up- Eastern Congo volcanoes show eruption warning signs

Posted 2009/03/30 at 4:32 pm EDT

KINSHASA, Mar. 30, 2009 (Reuters) — Two volcanoes may erupt in heavily populated eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where years of fighting have already forced 1 million people from their homes, scientists and aid agencies said.
A general view of the refugee camp at Kibati at the foot of Nyiragongo volcano in eastern Congo, November 14, 2008. REUTERS/Finbarr O'Reilly


Scientists in Goma, capital of the border province of North Kivu, have in recent weeks registered high levels of seismic activity, considered an early warning sign of an impending eruption, around the Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes.

"There is heavy activity around Nyiragongo, but it's more centered on Nyamulagira, around 13 km (8 miles) away," Dieudonne Wafula, lead scientist at the Volcanological Observatory of Goma, told Reuters on Monday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
525. TampaSpin
2:41 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
I just updated my WebSite and WU Blog if anyone would like to view....I have added a new feature to the WebSite you all might like..
I added an Instant Messenger so we can tell who is on line for easier communications. Hope you all like.

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm

TampaSpins WU Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
523. TropicTraveler
12:18 PM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting RMM34667:


Again WOW.. Less than 40 buck a day. I wonder if my boss will give me an extended vacation? I like vacationstogo.com, I can look at all the cruises and daydream. Guess it is an awesome time to go if you can!

I'd love to do a freighter cruise but when I checked the rates they were higher than the posh cruise ships. One good thing about being mostly retired - the bargains are usually right before the sailings and if they're cheap enough we just pack and go - seen some wonderful ports that way - I truly am a tropic traveler every time I get the chance.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
522. RMM34667
11:53 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting TropicTraveler:

royal Carribean sailing on April 12 from Buenos Aires - then back to back with April 26 from Santiago,Chili to San Diego . First one is 14 days, 2nd one is 15 days. Ship is Radiance of the seas. I go on the RCCL.com website. Sometimes Celebirty and RCCL have "happy hour specials" I got a med cruise for 12 days for $600 a person. The Apr 26 is a positioning cruise - goes from San Diego to Alaska and I heard those rates are also great Cruise Critic.com is a good spot to shop.


Again WOW.. Less than 40 buck a day. I wonder if my boss will give me an extended vacation? I like vacationstogo.com, I can look at all the cruises and daydream. Guess it is an awesome time to go if you can!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
520. TropicTraveler
5:45 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting RMM34667:


I'd love to checkout those rate. I look at cruises EVERY day! I even told my mother about your post and said "at that rate maybe its a cargo ship".. just give me a hint what line are you going on?

royal Carribean sailing on April 12 from Buenos Aires - then back to back with April 26 from Santiago,Chili to San Diego . First one is 14 days, 2nd one is 15 days. Ship is Radiance of the seas. I go on the RCCL.com website. Sometimes Celebirty and RCCL have "happy hour specials" I got a med cruise for 12 days for $600 a person. The Apr 26 is a positioning cruise - goes from San Diego to Alaska and I heard those rates are also great Cruise Critic.com is a good spot to shop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
519. TampaSpin
5:08 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
I just updated my WebSite and WU Blog if anyone would like to view....I have added a new feature to the WebSite you all might like..

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm

TampaSpins WU Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
518. Tazmanian
4:31 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Andre 3000 charged with driving 109 mph in Ga.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009 - 12:17 AM

MCDONOUGH, Ga.
Andre 3000 of the hip hop duo Outkast has been charged with driving 109 mph on a highway in suburban Atlanta.

Henry County Police Capt. Jason Bolton says the entertainer, whose real name is Andre Benjamin, was clocked speeding in a 65 mph zone in his Porsche south of Atlanta about 12:30 a.m. Saturday.

The 33-year-old Benjamin is free on $1,200 property bond pending a court date April 29.

Benjamin´s publicist, Eufaula Garrett, did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Police say Benjamin told them he was going so fast because he missed an exit and had to turn around.

As the Grammy-winning Outkast, Andre 3000 and Big Boi have churned out six platinum-plus albums, including their ubiquitous "Speakerboxxx/The Love Below."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
517. Ossqss
3:09 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
I absolutely Love the concept, BYOC , " Bring Your Own Condo ", with (PFV) pay for view.

Excellent !

Nightall :)


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
516. RMM34667
2:57 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Thanks! I will. And you all who like floating around on the water ought to look at the rates - the inside cabins are 399 per person per 2 week segment. Unbelievable. I guess because the economy is so bad people aren't sailing.


I'd love to checkout those rate. I look at cruises EVERY day! I even told my mother about your post and said "at that rate maybe its a cargo ship".. just give me a hint what line are you going on?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
515. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:13 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL LOW 15U
10:20 AM CST March 31 2009
===========================

At 9:30 AM CST, Weak Tropical Low 15U [1009 hPa] located at 8.5S 129.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.0S 128.7E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 7.5S 127.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 7.7S 124.0E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
=========
The low remains weak and disorganised, and has shown no improvement in structure during the past 12 hours. Scatterometer data indicates a very weak LLCC located to the north of the main area of deep convection, near 8S 128E. The mid-level circulation centre that was evident in IR animation yesterday has drifted east-southeast under the influence of a trough over eastern Australia. Convection associated with this feature has weakened.

Dvorak DT was unclassifiable; FT based on PAT=1.5 adjusted down from MET=2.0.

TC formation is now unlikely due to low to mid-level dry air advecting into the area associated with a strong ridge to the southeast. The weak tropical low is forecast to move with low-level steering flow towards the west northwest, passing into the Banda Sea, to the north of the island of Timor.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
514. HurricaneSwirl
1:54 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
deerfieldbeachguy: Yeah we are
to the northeast of you (central GA) and luckily got spared the worst of
the severe and tornadoes, however homes (including ours) had many feet of water in their
yards. My pics (and a vid) are on my cellphone
and I can't send them to my email for free XD
so maybe I can get some pics from other family members.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
513. taco2me61
1:46 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
That was a good slide show of the amount of water.... We here in mobile was just as bad. I just downloaded pictures of the flooding just 1/2 mile from my house...... It was as bad as 2004 and now wondering if we are instore for a storm like Ivan...... "I sure hope not"..... But the patern is if we get anywhere of 6 inches or more in March for a 1 day period then we have a storm sometime in september....

Taco :0(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
512. IKE
1:17 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:
This is a link to a slideshow of pictures from the flooding that occurred this past weekend near my hometown.

This is in southwestern GA. Bear Creek, near Norman Park, GA, received over 10 inches of rainfall this past weekend as heavy thunderstorms trained over the area. Grounds there were already saturated before the event, and with an additional 4-6 inches expected this week as a similar storm system is expected to hit the same areas, serious flooding is likely to occur.


Link


I'm to your west, 15 miles south of the Alabama/Florida line, near Defuniak Springs, FL. From the Tallahassee,FL. NWS......A SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT IS DEVELOPING THIS WEEK...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
511. DeerfieldBeachGuy
1:08 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
This is a link to a slideshow of pictures from the flooding that occurred this past weekend near my hometown.

This is in southwestern GA. Bear Creek, near Norman Park, GA, received over 10 inches of rainfall this past weekend as heavy thunderstorms trained over the area. Grounds there were already saturated before the event, and with an additional 4-6 inches expected this week as a similar storm system is expected to hit the same areas, serious flooding is likely to occur.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
510. taco2me61
12:58 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Hi everybody,
just checking in and seeing whats going on..... I see we are getting ready for more rain here in Mobile..... the Flash Flood watches has already gone up and we should get about 2 - 4 inches more..... Lord knows we don't need anymore but i'll take it....

Taco :0)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
509. Clickerous
12:14 AM GMT on March 31, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
Wunderground seems to give much higher chance of rain in S Fla then Weather.com which one would be considered more accurate?


Duh! Obviously WU ;) lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
507. TampaSpin
11:02 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Tampa.

I don't feel so envious of ur rain the other day now. I got my own spring showers LOL

Wonder how long it'll be before we're all saying, "It's raining AGAIN???? Shucks!". . . .

LOL


Wow did we need that..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
506. plywoodstatenative
11:02 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
baha, give it time. Sooner or later all of us are going to be wishing that we had rain instead of....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
505. TampaSpin
11:01 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
I just installed an instant messenger on my website and would like someone to help me test it if they can......

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
504. BahaHurican
11:00 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Hey, Tampa.

I don't feel so envious of ur rain the other day now. I got my own spring showers LOL

Wonder how long it'll be before we're all saying, "It's raining AGAIN???? Shucks!". . . .

LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
503. TampaSpin
10:57 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Hey Baha
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
502. BahaHurican
10:54 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Evening everybody.

We just had really good rain this afternoon. It started shortly after 3 p.m. and started to moderate around 6 p.m. This was a good soaker, with periods of lighter and heavier rain. It seems like the whole island of New Providence got wet, at least according to the NOAA viewer. All of this was from one cloud complex that just kept blowing up - heat island effect? Looks like Eleuthera got some rain also.

The event seems pretty much over for now, but it was sure great to get some moisture here. It's been bone dry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
501. Patrap
10:50 PM GMT on March 30, 2009


Hurricanes Not Likely To Disrupt Ocean Carbon Balance


Published on 30 March 2009, 09:08

MADISON - Hurricanes are well known for the trail of damage and debris they can leave on land, but less known for the invisible trail left over the ocean by their gale-force winds - a trail of carbon dioxide.

Observations in Bermuda and the Caribbean in the 1990s noted that hurricanes' powerful winds and the resultant water mixing can trigger enhanced carbon dioxide release from the ocean into the air. Large-scale extrapolations of these observations suggested that increasing numbers of hurricanes could significantly alter the overall carbon balance of the ocean and atmosphere.

However, a new study from the University of Wisconsin-Madison indicates that storm-induced carbon release is local and temporary and does not seem to affect the long-term ability of the tropical Atlantic to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. The study has been accepted to publish in an upcoming issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
500. Patrap
10:35 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
2009 National Hurricane Conference

April 6-April 10 |Austin Convention Center|Austin, TX

Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
499. TampaSpin
10:33 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting Ossqss:


OK, I will bite. But I am not giving you my PIN number for my ATM card again. ::))


Darn i forgot it. If you would be so kind to post it again....there was a problem with the exp. date....ROFLMAO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
498. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:25 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL LOW 15U
4:20 AM CST March 31 2009
===========================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low [1005 hPa] located at 9.2S 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.8S 128.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 8.3S 126.4E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 8.3S 121.8E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 9.1S 116.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
=========
The low level circulation centre remains difficult to locate under high-level cloud. Convective structure remains disorganised with areas of deep convection to the north and south of the LLCC. Poor position fix based on MTSAT IR animation and persistence.

Dvorak DT<1.5 based on 0.2 wrap curved band. MET=1.0 but FT/CI based on PT of 1.5.

Increasing low to mid-level shear has limited the development of the low during the past 24 hours. Low-level dry air is also wrapping around the southern and western periphery of the system and further suppressing convection.

TC formation now seems more uncertain. There has been a distinct lack of organisation and development overnight, with the low-level dry flow suppressing the system's development. The low-level ridge has moved further west and there are indications the system may not be subject to the same westward steering influences previously forecast. The intensity forecast indicates a small possibility of marginal TC intensity by 18UTC Tuesday, before de-intensification as dry air further erodes the system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
497. Ossqss
10:24 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
I need someone to help me with a test on my web site.


OK, I will bite. But I am not giving you my PIN number for my ATM card again. ::))
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
496. TampaSpin
10:18 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
I need someone to help me with a test on my web site.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
495. TropicTraveler
10:00 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting RMM34667:
RE: 487

TropicTraveler - WOW that sounds awesome! An the price is unbelievable. Have a safe Journey and post some pics!
Thanks! I will. And you all who like floating around on the water ought to look at the rates - the inside cabins are 399 per person per 2 week segment. Unbelievable. I guess because the economy is so bad people aren't sailing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
494. Clickerous
9:59 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thus the beginning of the seabrease/popup thunderstorms.


Thus comes the time my animals go crazy every afternoon around the same time lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
493. RMM34667
9:48 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
RE: 487

TropicTraveler - WOW that sounds awesome! An the price is unbelievable. Have a safe Journey and post some pics!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
492. TropicTraveler
9:48 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Ossgss - your've got that right! Although I don't usually get seasick I've been known to feel a little queasty. The miracle drug is actually ginger - in capsules or candy. Works like a charm and doesn't make you sleepy. Myth Busters set up a centrifuge and tested all sorts of things and ginger was the only thing that worked. It's a good natural product as well that is a natural anti-inflammatory. Anyway thanks for the good wishes - appreciate them!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
491. CybrTeddy
9:43 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting Clickerous:
They keep saying 50% chance of rain tomorrow for my part of SE FL but where the heck is it coming from??? It was gorgeous out today


Thus the beginning of the seabrease/popup thunderstorms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
490. Clickerous
9:32 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
They keep saying 50% chance of rain tomorrow for my part of SE FL but where the heck is it coming from??? It was gorgeous out today
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
489. CybrTeddy
9:11 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
60 Days till it starts folks, 60 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
488. Ossqss
9:04 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Fiery spaceballs and auroras. Hmmmmm. Due to the extraordinary accuracy of everything I've ever read on this board I can only shake my head and wonder what on earth is going on. Hubby and I finish up a 3 month assignment in Missouri and head immediately for a ship that goes from Buenos Aires around Cape Horn and up the other side of South America to San Diego. As I understand it, there sometimes are Aurora's in the southern hemisphere. I shall be out every night looking, just in case. We'll also get quite a bit of exposure to the currents off of South America as well as having my first crossing of the equator on a ship. I am definitely a happy woman. For a couple of old folks we can get pretty excited about a super neat trip. And to all of you who think - whoa - sounds expensive - this is the cheapest cruise rates I have ever seen. 29 nights on a ship for $1100 each - and that includes at least three meals a day, entertainment, dolphins, whales, flying fish, and entertaining views of fellow passengers. Plus lots of weather to watch. Also got cheap and free airfare. Think we ought to sell our house and just rent a cabin and stay on board. Anyhow, I'm hoping to see some high seas and hubby is mumbling if I even mention it. So the conflict is on. Not to worry - after 50 years married we've gotten used to it.


That sounds awesome. I hope you have a great trip. BTW, you may want to pick up a case of these for the Cape Horn portion of the trip :)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
487. TropicTraveler
8:50 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
Fiery spaceballs and auroras. Hmmmmm. Due to the extraordinary accuracy of everything I've ever read on this board I can only shake my head and wonder what on earth is going on. Hubby and I finish up a 3 month assignment in Missouri and head immediately for a ship that goes from Buenos Aires around Cape Horn and up the other side of South America to San Diego. As I understand it, there sometimes are Aurora's in the southern hemisphere. I shall be out every night looking, just in case. We'll also get quite a bit of exposure to the currents off of South America as well as having my first crossing of the equator on a ship. I am definitely a happy woman. For a couple of old folks we can get pretty excited about a super neat trip. And to all of you who think - whoa - sounds expensive - this is the cheapest cruise rates I have ever seen. 29 nights on a ship for $1100 each - and that includes at least three meals a day, entertainment, dolphins, whales, flying fish, and entertaining views of fellow passengers. Plus lots of weather to watch. Also got cheap and free airfare. Think we ought to sell our house and just rent a cabin and stay on board. Anyhow, I'm hoping to see some high seas and hubby is mumbling if I even mention it. So the conflict is on. Not to worry - after 50 years married we've gotten used to it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
486. KoritheMan
8:43 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
I just posted a blog about my grandfather, asking for donations to his funeral. He does not have life insurance. If he did, I would not be asking for donations.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KoritheMan/comment.html?entrynum=42

Please help in any way you can.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
485. plywoodstatenative
8:10 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
as far as the rain that the local weather ppl said that North Broward got, I can attest that all we had in coconut creek yesterday was plain sunshine. Little droplets of rain in the morning, and then freaking hot the rest of the day. Question is where is all the moisture that we saw on NEXRAD yesterday?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather