Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan

By: Angela Fritz , 8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.

Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.


Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.


Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.

Angela


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting JeffMasters:
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The hot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters
Thank you Jeff and congrats with the transition. If you want my honest opinion...I'd say relax more and look to the inside "outside" if you will, from 20 years ago. It takes some time, I imagine, but you're tops on a good team.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


It seems we have gotten a lot more sea breeze storms this year than normal (ignoring last year when we had none).


I believe that has to do with the placement of the ridge. SW/v's ride along the edge of it and interact with the seabreeze. Also, the outflow from SE US storms rolls over too. The I-10 corridor has bene quite fortunate this summer.
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Current Conditions At Consejo, Belize

Location: 18.27N  88.18W

Wind:  NW @ 13kts Gust to 25kts

Temp: 76F

Pressure: 1001.9 falling rapidly

Rain: 0.31 in/hr
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Tropical Storm Gilma 60mph
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Quoting huntsvle:


Lucky yall. We've been fortunate to get a decent amount of rain this year which has halted wildfire issues (unlike last year), but we could certainly use some more pulse storms up here. And, unfortunately for us, Huntsville doesn't usually feel the effects of a seabreeze. :-(


It seems we have gotten a lot more sea breeze storms this year than normal (ignoring last year when we had none).
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The shot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters


I LOL'd at this. Thanks, Doc.
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Quoting mcluvincane:



You are incompetent if you think that the lower 48 cannot be struck by a cv hurricane complete idiotic


Assuming said hypothetical storm remains a low rider, then sure. Why not? But even in a normal year (i.e., one without the ridiculous heat ridge), it's fairly difficult to have a Cape Verde storm make it all the way across. Just the way things roll dude.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


quicksilverskys, I know it's been a while since you posted this, so I hope you're still on the blog. I just got home from work and scrolled back to read what's been going on.
This isn't an official weather site but it's a "personal art project" I stumbled upon on the internet that shows the winds all across the continguous states in the US.
I find it mesmerizing and have wanted to share it with Wunderground for a while, but kept forgetting.

Link


Excellent site. Would be really neat to view during a landfalling hurricane in the US.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:

The worst of the Dust Bowl seems to disagree with you.

1936:



1934:



However, storms definitely did not make it far inland.


You will note in many of those storms, mostly in 1936, that a lot of storms where pushed W-WSW unusually.
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Quoting angiest:


We drove to north Texas last weekend. Quite the contrast. Down here everything is green, it looks like spring minus the flowers. Up near Dallas, brown, dry streams (like down here last year, if you look at my blog I documented some of it).

We had another nice thunderstorm pop up over west/SW Houston this afternoon.


Lucky yall. We've been fortunate to get a decent amount of rain this year which has halted wildfire issues (unlike last year), but we could certainly use some more pulse storms up here. And, unfortunately for us, Huntsville doesn't usually feel the effects of a seabreeze. :-(
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The shot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters


Did you hear about the CSU and TSR August predictions? They're saying 14 named. You could bring that up as well.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just checking in looks like Ernesto is making landfall

92L stronger on the TWO has it as 30% and orange I knew that would happen

92L models have shifted S and W again with the intensity forecast shows out of the 13 models 8 of the bring it to TS or above and out of the 8, 4 brings it to CAT 1 hurricane


I haven't really been closely looking either, but there doesn't seem to be an incredibly large area of dry air ahead of it either to impede it.
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Quoting huntsvle:


I totally agree...and I would have mentioned that, however, with the ridging patter the way it is...a storm that made landfall from the east like that would have most likely been driven to the west at some variation and not had a large impact on oklahoma or north texas. Most certainly not in a drought busting kind of way.


We drove to north Texas last weekend. Quite the contrast. Down here everything is green, it looks like spring minus the flowers. Up near Dallas, brown, dry streams (like down here last year, if you look at my blog I documented some of it).

We had another nice thunderstorm pop up over west/SW Houston this afternoon.
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I just checked up on Ernesto... aaand it still hasn't made landfall?

Winds are gonna be pegged at 85 mph... that recon grounding hurts.
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Quoting quicksilverskys:

As many years as I have read this blog, I always have trouble with the science behind weather patterns. Its sort of "Magic" to me, especially hurricanes! I always appreciate how you guys can explain things for me when I have questions. So basically as far a a good tropical soaking I can cross my fingers, eyes etc and click my heels but its not looking like the chances are good. Guess that series of events could happen. Maybe with a big, sturdy, wide TS?? Maybe we'll get lucky. As dad would say "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then"


Let me explain it this way for you. A tropical storm is generally not strong enough to steer itself and/or find a weakness in a synoptic pattern. It will most commonly be steered by the wind patters in the area. For a storm to directly affect the tx/ok area, with the patter as is, it's going to have to be a monster of a storm. Something that you wouldn't like to make landfall anywhere.
A secondary option would be for a weaker system to ride in from the east along the ridge. That's not the climatological norm for this part of the year, but stranger things have certainly happened. HOWEVER, it is not likely that a storm like that would have a large affect on N Texas or Oklahoma, as it would continue it's western path around the ridge.

I hope this helps ya.
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The wave that is about to come off Africa looks like it is already TD.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I don't know how strong the power grids are in that area, but lets see if anybody comes on and measures any winds above 85 mph. then will know for sure.

Yeah, conformation is nice, would've been nice to have recon but oh well.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The hot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters


thanks doc

i will give a listen
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
hey guys just checking in looks like Ernesto is making landfall

92L stronger on the TWO has it as 30% and orange I knew that would happen

92L models have shifted S and W again with the intensity forecast shows out of the 13 models 8 of the bring it to TS or above and out of the 8, 4 brings it to CAT 1 hurricane
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Quoting quicksilverskys:

As many years as I have read this blog, I always have trouble with the science behind weather patterns. Its sort of "Magic" to me, especially hurricanes! I always appreciate how you guys can explain things for me when I have questions. So basically as far a a good tropical soaking I can cross my fingers, eyes etc and click my heels but its not looking like the chances are good. Guess that series of events could happen. Maybe with a big, sturdy, wide TS?? Maybe we'll get lucky. As dad would say "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then"


Best bet would be September. But it ultimately depends on how this year plays out.
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973. 7544
thanks pat

and congrades doc m all the best to you there !
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Quoting quicksilverskys:
Time for my Bi- Annual comment & dumb question. (been Lurking since about 2002 or so:)
First, total agreement about too many other "shows" on TWC now. Guess I am weird, I go there to actually watch the weather....
Now Dumb question,(questions, many) Whats the chances of getting anything in the way of a tropical "drought buster" to come up thru TX, OK this year?? What conditions would it take to get one into the GM & headed this way?? What about the new one behind Ernesto, any better chances? Is there any way with the steering patterns etc that Ernesto could come out farther N.E? I know all the models & forecasts say no BUT..... Is there anything out there to suck him towards TX, OK, KS etc, if something different happens. I wish I could find a site that shows where the wind currents etc are moving. Seems like I had one once but cant find it again. Thanks for any info.


quicksilverskys, I know it's been a while since you posted this, so I hope you're still on the blog. I just got home from work and scrolled back to read what's been going on.
This isn't an official weather site but it's a "personal art project" I stumbled upon on the internet that shows the winds all across the continguous states in the US.
I find it mesmerizing and have wanted to share it with Wunderground for a while, but kept forgetting.

Link
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The hot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters


Ha ha. I love that he adds he banned the troll. Nice!
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Quoting KoritheMan:

But that's what I'm saying. A half a degree reduction is completely meaningless in that portion of the basin.


Gotcha and agreed. I'm just thankful for ANY heat removal this time of year regardless of how small.
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05L/H/E/CX
LANDFALL
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Quoting taco2me61:
Ok I will try to answer this for you :o)
For Texas to get hit by a storm and move up towards OK.... The AB High in the atlantic would have to be strong enough to move the storm to the west also a High Pressure would have to be over the Central Southeast.... Then it would move up towards Texas and OK area.... Take Hurricane "IKE" it did just that..... Now don't get me wrong there are a lot of players involved here. But that is the best I could come up with at the moment :o)

I hope this helped
Taco :o)

As many years as I have read this blog, I always have trouble with the science behind weather patterns. Its sort of "Magic" to me, especially hurricanes! I always appreciate how you guys can explain things for me when I have questions. So basically as far a a good tropical soaking I can cross my fingers, eyes etc and click my heels but its not looking like the chances are good. Guess that series of events could happen. Maybe with a big, sturdy, wide TS?? Maybe we'll get lucky. As dad would say "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then"
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I should have been more clear. In these types of years, there are two camps: one that recurves near 70W, and another that moves into Central America or Mexico. Your maps certainly lend support to that. Some people have suggested that this year's pattern is a lot different than that of the last two years. It's not. Barring homegrown mischief, the only way I can see for a strike on the lower 48 this year is for a Caribbean cruiser to sneak up underneath the subtropical ridge.

Also, I'll go out on a limb here and say that this could be the start of a long-term trend. As I understand it, AGW theory predicts the southern United States to become much drier relative to normal. That would mean more oven roasted Texas, and less overall precipitation for the southeast during the summer and autumn months, as they lose their only real source of it: tropical cyclones.

Could be most interesting if it actually does pan out this way.


I also surveyed 50-57 (Texas' worse drought) and saw many fewer storms impacting the Gulf*, and a larger number of storms in the open Atlantic and brushing the East Coast.

*The 50's seem to be generally less active than the 30's.
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Banned on the Run..

when u got a Job to do, ya gotta do it well..
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Seems to have made landfall just north of Corozal Town
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964. JeffMasters (Admin)
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The shot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters
Quoting angiest:


WFO Ft Worth always had hicks reading the reports.


Part time job in OKC many years ago. Helped pay the school bills.

Don't consider myself a hick though ;)
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Quoting wxchaser97:

It looks like it but I think it was stronger than 85mph.
I don't know how strong the power grids are in that area, but lets see if anybody comes on and measures any winds above 85 mph. then will know for sure.
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Dr. Masters First TWC Tropical appearance,Ernesto Landfall,Yucatan


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Quoting ncstorm:


sorry but a Cat 4 hurricane approaching the east coast will supercede a drought at that time..


You say tomato...

You're still paying for the drought and will for years.
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Quoting angiest:

The worst of the Dust Bowl seems to disagree with you.

1936:



1934:



However, storms definitely did not make it far inland.
I should have been more clear. In these types of years, there are two camps: one that recurves near 70W, and another that moves into Central America or Mexico. Your maps certainly lend support to that. Some people have suggested that this year's pattern is a lot different than that of the last two years. It's not. Barring homegrown mischief, the only way I can see for a strike on the lower 48 this year is for a Caribbean cruiser to sneak up underneath the subtropical ridge.

Also, I'll go out on a limb here and say that this could be the start of a long-term trend. As I understand it, AGW theory predicts the southern United States to become much drier relative to normal. That would mean more oven roasted Texas, and less overall precipitation for the southeast during the summer and autumn months as they lose their only real source of it: tropical cyclones.

Could be most interesting if it actually does pan out this way.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm pretty sure it has made landfall just south of Costa Maya.

It looks like it but I think it was stronger than 85mph.
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HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IMAGERY FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE THE
HURRICANE HAD A WELL-DEFINED 15-NMI DIAMETER EYE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...BUT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT
BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

RADAR FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 270/13 KT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS OF MEXICO...AND
WILL MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN YUCATAN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ERNESTO TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS AS
IT NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURS...
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
HIGH MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE
IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...
WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO.
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
WIND REPORTS FROM THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AND NOAA BUOY 42056.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.7N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BANCO CHINCHORRO
12H 08/1200Z 19.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 09/1200Z 19.4N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 18.7N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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956. etxwx
13 Killed, 3 Missing in Hubei Rainstorm
2012-08-07 13:51:02 Xinhua (from China Daily)

Thirteen people are dead and three remain missing following a strong rainstorm that battered the city of Shiyan in central China's Hubei Province from Saturday night to Monday morning, local authorities said Tuesday. The rainstorm has also injured at least 725 people in the city.

Maximum precipitation surpassing 400 mm has triggered floods and landslides in the city, affecting 120,000 households and causing direct economic losses of 790 million yuan (124 million U.S.dollars), the municipal government said. The storm has also forced 44,518 residents to relocate and destroyed 4,420 houses, the government said.

Traffic on two national highways and four provincial highways was disrupted by rain-triggered floods. Telecommunication services in affected areas have been suspended for 15 hours. The rains also caused 72,700 households to lose power, although 28,200 households had regained power as of 11 a.m. Tuesday following repairs conducted by the municipal power company. Three of the company's employees went missing on their way to fix electrical facilities when their vehicle was flooded early Monday morning. The body of the vehicle's driver was found on a riverbank Tuesday morning, according to the company. Rescuers are searching for the other two workers. Irrigation channels, levees and water pipes have also been damaged to varying degrees, the municipal government said. Rescuers are still searching for the missing. Roads and telecommunications facilities are being repaired.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...
10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.7N 87.7W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
I'm pretty sure it has made landfall just south of Costa Maya. Plug the coordinates into google maps and it's about 2.7 kilometers offshore from Quintana Roo El Cafetal-Mahahual.
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Quoting jascott1967:


It was the same when Texas was experiencing one of its worse droughts in history last year. Few cared, all eyes were on Irene. Meanwhile, many Texans lost their crops and cattle. Same as what's going on in the middle of the country now.

It doesn't matter if the weather and climate is effecting America. It only matters when it makes it on the evening news.

Listen to the song by Don Henley, Dirty Laundry. Not much has changed since he recorded that song.


sorry but a Cat 4 hurricane approaching the east coast will supercede a drought at that time..
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Im uploading a short video of Dr.Masters on TWC tonight.

70% up^
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Quoting KoritheMan:

You will as long as the drought remains entrenched over the central United States. It only makes sense meteorologically.

The worst of the Dust Bowl seems to disagree with you.

1936:



1934:



However, storms definitely did not make it far inland.
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I have been on The Weather Channel talking about hurricanes. Here's a link

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If Ernesto went over that 140+ TCHP, looked liked it does now, and threaded the needle between Yucatan and Cuba, Ernesto would probably have been retired (still could) but we were potentially looking at a Category 4 hurricane, had this been over water for 24 more hours.... SCARY...

Ernesto could still become a hurricane when he emerges into the BOC, and I would not even rule out Major, due to the rapid spinups that occur in W BOC due to anti-cyclonic shape of coastline (think Alex, Karl, and Hermine)
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Hurricane 05L


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2012 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 18:35:05 N Lon : 87:20:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 985.8mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.1 4.1

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees



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...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...
10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.7°N 87.7°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE
NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO
ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather