Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan

By: Angela Fritz , 8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.

Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.


Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.


Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.

Angela


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
At what times does the next recon reach Ernesto?

No more recon until after it reemerges in the Bay of Campeche tomorrow night. They leave at 21Z.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That one was really bad for Haiti if I remember correctly.


Yes, it was. I think the death toll in Haiti may have been over 1,000, but they never retired the name.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Evening janiel!
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Quoting angiest:


Meet the teletype.





Let me see if I can describe how terribly slow the AP teletype system was. The teletype system ran at 50 baud, officially 66 words per minute, which averaged slightly over six characters per second at full speed. They way teletype machines were used by wire services, full speed was the only speed. If the same machine was connected to an inexperienced typist manually entering text, you'd hear the printer "hunt and peck" along with him, but in day-to-day operation, the system was fed pre-recorded segments of punched paper tape.

Each character was sent with a start bit, five data bits, and 1½ stop bits. But the "characters" included spaces, carriage return, line feed, an alarm bell, and two codes which selected "letters" or "figures". There were no lower-case letters, no italics, no underlines, no bold characters. All numbers and punctuation are in the "figures" group, so if you wanted to send "HELLO." on a line by itself, you would send [H] [E] [L] [L] [O] [figures] [period] [letters] [carriage return] [line feed]. This would take about 1.6 seconds. If you have DSL internet service, that is probably more time than it took your browser to load this entire page. (Well… the text portion anyway.) Even a 9600 baud modem, probably the slowest dial-up internet connection you've ever seen, is more than a hundred times as fast as the old teletype system.

From a site about the old Emergency Broadcast System.

In case someone, somewhere, still depends on one of these ancient devices for their news, weather alerts are still transmitted in all caps.
Whoa...slow down a minute.
That ancient machine worked best, in my lifetime, and
I'm not that old.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
night all i leve you guys with jfv


what all give him a big warm welcome



right out the door
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:
Okay...so everyone offer your opinion on this.

1. The wave we already know about leaving the frame to the west.
2. The huge disturbance that is still onland in Africa that will probably be a wave in the next couple of days.

BUT...follow the loop from the top of the frame and watch the circulation swing in from the north. It doesn't appear that it'll cross on land and it already appears to have some organization.

Any thoughts?!?!?!?


Not so sure we are going to see much come from 92L, but that wave currently making its way to the coast could be something to keep an eye on. The models also currently agree with this statement.
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its the gom force field i was talkin about.. its pushin ernesto southward. he might not even make it into the boc ( yes i know that that is still the gom, but you get my point)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At what times does the next recon reach Ernesto?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
night all i leve you guys with jfv


what all give him a big warm welcome



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:
my bad :o) I knew it changed but I had it "Backards"
Blonde male moment :o)

Taco :o)


:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Okay...so everyone offer your opinion on this.

1. The wave we already know about leaving the frame to the west.
2. The huge disturbance that is still onland in Africa that will probably be a wave in the next couple of days.

BUT...follow the loop from the top of the frame and watch the circulation swing in from the north. It doesn't appear that it'll cross on land and it already appears to have some organization.

Any thoughts?!?!?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto got right up to the coast and now seems to have slowed for a bit.


I was thinking he should have made landfall an hour ago.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ernesto got right up to the coast and now seems to have slowed for a bit.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ernesto starting to get the buzz saw look in latest frames with eye popping out.

So glad he is going south...haha.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
well guys am off


good luck in MX


all so we may see 93L in the AM from that big wave overe land
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Just did a blog on Ernesto. I'll have one for 92L and Gilma/93E later this evening (whew!), but I wanted to get this out before the information became dated. Nothing like forecasting a landfalling storm!
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Quoting Grothar:


No it doesn't. Taz is correct.

Subject: B5) What happens to the name of a tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa? Contributed by Chris Landsea

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin (see F1 for more about the basins), then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area.

.............However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.
my bad :o) I knew it changed but I had it "Backards"
Blonde male moment :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


the 1994 Gordon was the "storm that wouldn't go away". Even though the loop shows it through Central Florida, South Florida got flooded all week.


That one was really bad for Haiti if I remember correctly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting lottotexas:
Taz, when is El Nino going to shut everything down ??



i dont no any more
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This legitimately appears to be a tropical storm over land.



Actually, storms which for and strengthen so far east are normally less to worry about, since organized storms that far east can gain significant latitude and become the proverbial "fish storm".....

Just a general observation....... It is rare to see a storm form so far east, just off the coast of Africa, and affect the CONUS......
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Quoting Thing342:
Arthur formed from Alma's remnants and two other waves.

oh I didn't know that
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Taz, when is El Nino going to shut everything down ??
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Quoting caneswatch:


2000 Gordon was a giant among tropical storms. He was felt everywhere around FL.


the 1994 Gordon was the "storm that wouldn't go away". Even though the loop shows it through Central Florida, South Florida got flooded all week.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The blob over Africa looks very impressive.

Click image for larger view and animation. Excellent link

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It's pretty clear that we have a strengthening hurricane about to make landfall. Ernesto is likely a category 2 hurricane right now.
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Quoting mexichick:
66 miles South of Cancun, we are now having only wind, no rain, and the humidity has dropped enough that our patio is actually drying off. Wind, but not really strong.

good to hear
lets hope thats all we hear
but we got a few days left yet
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
701. pottery 9:32 PM EDT
Quoting angiest
:


It may be something lost in time (although TBH I don't know how long they have been tagging invests). There are hysterical raisins, afterall, why weather alerts are still sent in all-caps.

This can't be good......

------------

Hysterical Raisins must be made from Grapes of Wrath.....

Resulting in the Wine of Astonishment.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

OK, leave a letter-designation then.

But right now, if you wanted to remember/find info on a storm from Aug. 2010, there is no way to access it without going through the entire month.

How many 92L's in a year???
Quite a lot.

I suppose that giving an invest an individual identifier would help in that aspect
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


10 characters versus 3 doesn't strike me as an improvement.

How many 92L's were there last year?
To find out, and to locate one in Sept that you may be interested in, you would need to do some deep digging.

Instead, you could type 10 characters and bingo..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
New image...9 minutes old:


Ok, that's probably an eye. I was suspicious at first though because of all of the warm spots at the core of the hot towers today, which you can see below:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:


Definitely directed at you Gro!! LOL



What I have gathered to day:

Ernesto making landfall
GFS going crazy over the next couple of weeks
Nasty looking wave over Africa


Anything else I need to know about??


Nothing other than Grothar got even older today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think that the Alma Arthur storm in 2008 was pretty close
Arthur formed from Alma's remnants and two other waves.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
66 miles South of Cancun, we are now having only wind, no rain, and the humidity has dropped enough that our patio is actually drying off. Wind, but not really strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:


Would somebody please close the door?
The dogs are getting out!


the gates are wide open
and the dogs are on the loose
till at least the new moon
of sept 16th
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
701. pottery 9:32 PM EDT
Quoting angiest
:


It may be something lost in time (although TBH I don't know how long they have been tagging invests). There are hysterical raisins, afterall, why weather alerts are still sent in all-caps.

This can't be good......

------------

Hysterical Raisins must be made from Grapes of Wrath.....
LOL. Very clever.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



Wrong,

Wrong


I dunno, for the longest time the GFS model shows this thing out at sea, not hurting anyone. Only when it gets close to land does it appear to be a threat...

Hopefully this thing stays a bit off shore and not bring the worst to anyone, maybe some rain and and a bit of wind but not a hurricane. I don't think I wish to see a repeat of the New England hurricane any time soon, our infrastructure is just not good enough.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
751. MTWX
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Who are you calling "old"??


Definitely directed at you Gro!! LOL



What I have gathered to day:

Ernesto making landfall
GFS going crazy over the next couple of weeks
Nasty looking wave over Africa
Taz running for Blog Governor


Anything else I need to know about??
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
750. angiest
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting pottery:

This can't be good......


Meet the teletype.





Let me see if I can describe how terribly slow the AP teletype system was. The teletype system ran at 50 baud, officially 66 words per minute, which averaged slightly over six characters per second at full speed. They way teletype machines were used by wire services, full speed was the only speed. If the same machine was connected to an inexperienced typist manually entering text, you'd hear the printer "hunt and peck" along with him, but in day-to-day operation, the system was fed pre-recorded segments of punched paper tape.

Each character was sent with a start bit, five data bits, and 1½ stop bits. But the "characters" included spaces, carriage return, line feed, an alarm bell, and two codes which selected "letters" or "figures". There were no lower-case letters, no italics, no underlines, no bold characters. All numbers and punctuation are in the "figures" group, so if you wanted to send "HELLO." on a line by itself, you would send [H] [E] [L] [L] [O] [figures] [period] [letters] [carriage return] [line feed]. This would take about 1.6 seconds. If you have DSL internet service, that is probably more time than it took your browser to load this entire page. (Well… the text portion anyway.) Even a 9600 baud modem, probably the slowest dial-up internet connection you've ever seen, is more than a hundred times as fast as the old teletype system.

From a site about the old Emergency Broadcast System.

In case someone, somewhere, still depends on one of these ancient devices for their news, weather alerts are still transmitted in all caps.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
749. all4hurricanes
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting Thing342:
2000 or 2002, whenever they started naming subtropical storms.

2002
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
748. pottery
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting all4hurricanes:

what about other basins or would there just be a global invest naming system?

OK, leave a letter-designation then.

But right now, if you wanted to remember/find info on a storm from Aug. 2010, there is no way to access it without going through the entire month.

How many 92L's in a year???
Quite a lot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
747. Grothar
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Tropical Storm Christine formed over Africa in 1973 and made it all the way to Puerto Rico.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
746. caneswatch
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
List of years in which the name "Gordon" has been used for a tropical cyclone:

* 1994
* 2000
* 2006

1994's Hurricane Gordon: Category 1 hurricane that killed over 1,000 people in Haiti.



2000's Hurricane Gordon: Formed near Guatemala, cut across the Yucatán and later hit Florida as a tropical storm. Killed 23 in Guatemala and one in Florida, and $10.8 million damage there (no figure for Guatemala).



2006's Hurricane Gordon: Formed in the central North Atlantic, tracked north and east while becoming a category 3 major hurricane. Crossed the Azores as a category 1 storm before dissipating over western Europe.



2000 Gordon was a giant among tropical storms. He was felt everywhere around FL.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
745. MississippiWx
1:42 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
New image...9 minutes old:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
744. Tazmanian
1:41 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting Gorty:
92L is now orange.




your late
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather