Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan

By: Angela Fritz , 8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.

Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.


Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.


Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.

Angela


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 644 - 594

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Quoting JLPR2:


I always prefer your graphics over mine.


So do I, but you're still a nice guy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Gilma has really intensified today.




yep sure has
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just the name Gordon used for a hurricane gets me anxious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
A bit off-topic, but here is an example of how off the CIMSS maps can be...

850 vort



Steering appears to be off.



But is everything off or just Ernesto?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


It's interesting to see most models making this at least a TS.

The models are run as if it's already at tropical depression status, which is not the case.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ConsejoBelize:
Consejo, Belize Current Conditions:

WInd: NW @ 13kts
Pressure: 1004mb
Temp: 77F

Webcam


The core of ernesto is relatively small...... 25 miles one way or the other could make a huge difference on what you could get..... particularly relating to wind speeds. of course the highest winds will be north and north east of the LLC......

Hope you and your family stay safe.....

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, uh, I think that could be a mistake. Lol.

I hope....


The standard mean for these are as follows

25K = .5120 25 X .5120 = 12.8%
30K = .2800 30 X .2800 = 08.4%
35K = .1428 35 X .1428 = 05.0%
40K = .085 40 X .0850 = 03.4%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
the midnight/00z update are has follow


AL, 92, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 119N, 329W, 25, 1009, DB


EP, 07, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1146W, 50, 998, TS


AL, 06, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 183N, 505W, 25, 1011, LO,

AL, 05, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 187N, 871W, 75, 980, HU

EP, 93, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1011W, 25, 1008, LO

Gilma has really intensified today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't like it now when The Weather Channel airs special shows in prime time. I've been a viewer since 1985, and John Hope would have preempted any program all night when we have a land falling hurricane. I love TWC, but I like the actual weather versus 'shows'. Although I miss the past, this blog is probably my number one source for information these days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
635. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92


Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



It's interesting to see most models making this at least a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the midnight/00z update are has follow


AL, 92, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 119N, 329W, 25, 1009, DB


EP, 07, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1146W, 50, 998, TS


AL, 06, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 183N, 505W, 25, 1011, LO,

AL, 05, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 187N, 871W, 75, 980, HU

EP, 93, 2012080800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1011W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A bit off-topic, but here is an example of how off the CIMSS maps can be...

850 vort

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Showing it's pinhole.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92


Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
630. Relix
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Those are the dangerous ones, wait to develop closer to the islands.


I forgot to add... "...for now". Heh :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wish that you could look at cloud cover and a specific color would show up whenever there is TS or Hurr. force winds.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
92L doesn't seem to be of much worry for the islands I think, at least until 50W.
Those are the dangerous ones, wait to develop closer to the islands.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
626. JLPR2
Quoting angiest:


GFS seems to be changing its thinking, though. We now have several ensemble members tracking it.


Bummer...

If it does form and follows that track it would be basically be Ernesto part II, but a little further north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A Lotta Lime in da FunkTop.

Ernesto a Powerful Landfalling Hurricane
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
624. JLPR2
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

No it should work, this is for 93E:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)


Usually it has problems or isn't accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
622. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
92L is gaining a nice moisture envelope to shield it from what little SAL should affect it. Wind shear is forecast to stay conducive over the next 5 days.

Don't really see a reason why this won't develop.



Well then, at least make it struggle like Ernesto.

If that happened many Wu-Bloggers would snap. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Thank goodness 92L doesn't have the "look".



GFS seems to be changing its thinking, though. We now have several ensemble members tracking it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
620. Relix
92L doesn't seem to be of much worry for the islands I think, at least until 50W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
619. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:






I always prefer your graphics over mine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92L is gaining a nice moisture envelope to shield it from what little SAL should affect it. Wind shear is forecast to stay conducive over the next 5 days.

Don't really see a reason why this won't develop.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:


Thats odd
As of this morning my local said less rain for today and tomorrow.
Guess I should look again.


He was showing 5-day. S. Fla. looks dryish through Thursday with another wet spell beginning Friday or Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


I believe SHIPS doesn't work RI for invests, in other words, you get mumbo jumbo like that.

No it should work, this is for 93E:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


I wasn't on much last night lol! Hanging in there, how about you?


OK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
613. JLPR2
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Doom alert. 0z SHIPS RI probabilities for 92L.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


I believe SHIPS doesn't work RI for invests, in other words, you get mumbo jumbo like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Nothing above 14kts for the next 5 days.



not good ouch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:




ha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



what about wind shear for 92L what do they show for it

Nothing above 14kts for the next 5 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
608. JLPR2


Thank goodness 92L doesn't have the "look".

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Doom alert. 0z SHIPS RI probabilities for 92L.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)



what about wind shear for 92L what do they show for it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Doom alert. 0z SHIPS RI probabilities for 92L.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


Yeah, uh, I think that could be a mistake. Lol.

I hope....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Good image but wayyyy too large to just post as an image. Link it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Doom alert. 0z SHIPS RI probabilities for 92L.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


If you'd come on more often, you'd know I was the one who posted the first image last night. How have you been TF??


I wasn't on much last night lol! Hanging in there, how about you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol
Quoting weatherh98:


where did you learn to add like that? thats crazy!!! 6+4=10 wahhh :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
night and day

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ernesto has that Stan track forecast-track going on.. I assume that he isn't expected to cause as much flooding though, since Stan's rains combined with a larger non-tropical system, correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


She's long gone, meet 92L to her east.


If you'd come on more often, you'd know I was the one who posted the first image last night. How have you been TF??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 644 - 594

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather