About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Angela Fritz , 8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.
Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.
Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.
Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.
Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.
Angela
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
494. weatherh98
493. TropicalAnalystwx13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 7 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GILMA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GILMA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
492. allancalderini
491. Seflhurricane
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
490. MAweatherboy1
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
489. Tropicsweatherpr
488. Seflhurricane
487. ILwthrfan
Look at the radar TA13. It is on a hard west jog right now, with a slight south bias.
Link.
486. Doppler22
It mmight pull a Hurricane Karl on us
485. thelmores
484. floridaboy14
483. WatchingThisOne
I trust that Dr. Masters will encourage the powers that be to bring the weather back to The Weather Channel. The acquisition of WU by TWC may be a positive sign that thinking is swinging that way (and I'm sure it hasn't escaped NBC's attention that severe weather and global warming have become quite topical).
So you may have reason to hope for better in the future. Good luck with this storm - be safe.
482. MAweatherboy1
481. Seflhurricane
480. amd
I think the southernmost part of the BOC is around 18.8 degrees North, so if Ernesto heads due west, it may just scrape the BOC. But, if there is not any more northern movement or even continues to wobble to the WSW (which it has clearly done according to the Belize radar) , I think you could be right.
479. ILwthrfan
Biggest key it that equation is when it stops gaining in latitude. There is a HUGE difference between 19-20N in the Bay of Campeche as I'm sure everyone here knows. It has that look now that it has stopped with the wnw track at least in the short term.
478. TropicalAnalystwx13
Uhh...why wouldn't he?
477. tennisgirl08
476. GeorgiaStormz
thanx!!
475. allancalderini
474. WalkingInTheSun
As for that SW dip,...not sure what it is, but not sure it is really that, either, or maybe just shifting around a bit.
473. MississippiWx
Eye would pop first on IR anyway.
472. hydrus
471. Seflhurricane
470. GTcooliebai
469. airmet3
I would not be surprised if the mission was cancelled. The center is close to the coast and the low level investigations do not fly over land due to the turbulence created because of friction. It is much more smooth over the water.
468. TropicalAnalystwx13
Yay!
467. MAweatherboy1
466. hydrus
465. tennisgirl08
Where are you exactly? I was just laughing about the priorities of the Mexican government...haha.
464. TropicalAnalystwx13
463. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
462. GTcooliebai
460. CaicosRetiredSailor
459. mexichick
458. Gearsts
457. Stormchaser2007
Hour until landfall.
456. tennisgirl08
Looks to be moving WSW/SW - notice the mountainous region ahead of Ernesto.
He will not last long.
455. PdCMexico
And, stay safe we will. Thanks.
454. 1900hurricane
452. ILwthrfan
Yep, I agree. I have seen storms do this before and make a hard left turn before landfall. Karl did something similar but it was his second landfall when he turned hard left and had that wsw drift. Mitch did it to.
451. MississippiWx
450. angiest
I remember during the Rita evacuation some of the only stores open in some of the small towns were the liquor stores.
449. wunderkidcayman
lol maybe it will loop around and head to Cuba and S Fl
anyway people in the rest of the caribbean watch out we have 92L I have a gut feeling that 92L will be our next carib storm note Ships has it as a high end CAT1 E of Windward the LGEM the same but as a CAT2
448. tennisgirl08
Alcohol sales? Priorities. ;)
Stay safe. Keep us updated.
447. ILwthrfan
445. weatherh98
At least
What's mjo
What's nao
What's enso
Whats PDO
What the chart
What's doom
Why did he just post a shower curtain
Oh and the usual "try to act smart in the first comment" by asking some idiotic question about radioactive decays effect on a hurricane
444. tennisgirl08
Looking at this radar imagery - Ernesto is dipping WSW/SW. If he keeps this up he will move over a much more mountainous region of the Yucatan.
The story of Ernesto may end sooner rather than later.