Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan

By: Angela Fritz , 8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.

Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.


Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.


Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.

Angela


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 080855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM

...ERNESTO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF TULUM HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON.
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ERNESTO COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting lightning75:
I feel an outbreak of wave hysteria is about to start



Hmmm...the wave onland in Africa could be TD the second it hits water.
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Quoting lightning75:
I feel an outbreak of wave hysetria is about to start



Already well and truly started lol since we have bloggers posting GFS runs 10+ days out on it. It should be a violation of the website's T&C to do this when there are tropical cyclones that actually exist threatening lives and property. Just my 2 cents though :P
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Quoting LargoFl:
..good morning GT..92L looks like its dying yet NHC has it at 30%...and ex florence at 0%...looks like we have some peace for a week once ernesto dies off
Good morning Largo. I see that convection has waned over the past couple of hours on 92L. Ex-Florence looks dead and there will be a new, what looks like the strongest wave of the season yet coming off the coast of Africa in the next 24-48 hours that the GFS shows developing. Looks like Cape Verde Season will be in full swing soon. We'll have to watch over the next week to see how the Ridge in the Atlantic steers these systems. A stronger Ridge will likely mean storms getting dangerously close to the East Coast and a weaker Ridge would tend to recurve storms away from the US.

Oh and we'll still be tracking Ernesto when it emerges in the Bay of Campeche where it has the possibility to re-intensify and make a 2nd landfall.
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1387. LargoFl
.........................................Good morning folks..looks like most of florida is back to normal now, a drying out time at last with maybe the normal afternoon stuff..........have a great day everyone
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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1384. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
An angled look at the storm over Africa:

..good morning GT..92L looks like its dying yet NHC has it at 30%...and ex florence at 0%...looks like we have some peace for a week once ernesto dies off
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An angled look at the storm over Africa:

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1382. LargoFl
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1380. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ132-149-080830-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON AND
COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 430 AM
EDT...

AT 328 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
AMBROSE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF WILLACOOCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WILLACOOCHEE...AMBROSE...PEARSON...DOUGLAS...BROX TON...AXSON AND WEST
GREEN THROUGH 430 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3152 8309 3161 8306 3164 8302 3169 8300
3170 8284 3167 8284 3167 8271 3167 8270
3129 8266 3128 8270 3123 8270 3119 8267
3118 8304 3127 8304 3133 8307 3140 8314
3147 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 267DEG 15KT 3160 8305 3123 8301

$$

HESS
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1379. LargoFl
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1378. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
TIFT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 545 AM EDT

* AT 331 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. THESE
PERSISTENT STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OCILLA AND
MYSTIC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

REPORT FLOODING OR FLOOD DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.



LAT...LON 3145 8315 3137 8323 3135 8334 3135 8351
3156 8361 3159 8350 3166 8344 3167 8338
3165 8318 3168 8317 3166 8303



17-GOULD
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Quoting FloridaTigers:


No, Reddit is awful.


Are you from 4chan or 9gag then?
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CIMSS steering analysis showing the central US mid level ridging consolidating to Ernesto's NW. This should hopefully dispell those theories running around that he will track WNW across the Bay and S-ern GOM. The track reasoning is extremely clear cut now, hence the agreement in the global models.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


You're a Redditor too? You subscribe to r/weather, I posted there asking if anyone there posts here too?


No, Reddit is awful.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
I thought I came to Jeff Master's blog, not Reddit.

le go away to >>>/reddit/, we have a hurricane that's made landfall.


You're a Redditor too? You subscribe to r/weather, I posted there asking if anyone there posts here too?
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Too. Many. GIFs! My phone can't handle it, can you please take some down? TYIA
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I thought I came to Jeff Master's blog, not Reddit.

le go away to >>>/reddit/, we have a hurricane that's made landfall.
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92L










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Ernesto













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We have Tropical Storm Gilma in the EPAC













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Quoting allancalderini:
92L looks terrible nights people.
yeah i see dat! must be that SAL or dry air
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Quoting bigwes6844:
that african wave is viscious!!
LOL, Fat comma shape xD
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Quoting bigwes6844:
that african wave is viscious!!
92L looks terrible nights people.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


We'll have to resume sometime when I'm not on my phone and I have hundreds of memes on my computer I could use...

The horror that will come, lol. Night everyone, I got to get to bed.
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Quoting patrikdude2:
Considering the fact that Ernesto has managed to maintained it's overall structure and organization a few hours after landfall combined with the compact size, it may not be farfetched that it could reintensify to a Cat 2 in my opinion.
i was thinking the same, like 100 mph or 105 before next landfall.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It has been fun harassing you and Kori tonight.

This guy has to get some sleep. Good night to all.


We'll have to resume sometime when I'm not on my phone and I have hundreds of memes on my computer I could use...
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that african wave is viscious!!
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Considering the fact that Ernesto has managed to maintained it's overall structure and organization a few hours after landfall combined with the compact size, it may not be farfetched that it could reintensify to a Cat 2 in my opinion.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It has been fun harassing you and Kori tonight.

This guy has to get some sleep. Good night to all.

Good night MSWx, good thing I didn't get harassed tonight:)
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Touché...


It has been fun harassing you and Kori tonight.

This guy has to get some sleep. Good night to all.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


I thought he did begin to weaken?


Barely, but way less than I thought and his circulation will remain well intact.
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Quoting wxchaser97:


I will say sometimes things get funny on here and also that Ernesto is keeping his shape and intensity up.
In fact:

Thats most likely the last memes of the night for me.


I thought he did begin to weaken?

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Eh, dog peeing on keyboard = funnier than Condescending Wonka. :-D


Touché...
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Hello night crew, been out since this afternoon

Very impressive satellite and radar presentation of Ernesto! For those admonishing the NHC for being conservative, they had no actual data to work with. No RECON flight, cannot use Dvorak estimates while crossing the coastline with very little obs near the center of the storm. He will remain an 85 mph hurricane at landfall. But as we were expecting his eye cleared out and eyewall convection intensified as soon as the frictional land effects came into play. Who knows how strong he really is now and was at the time of landfall but we have absolutely no data to back it up. He will emerge into the Bay with in very good shape and it won't take long for the warm waters and the anticyclone overhead to get him going again.

Thank your higher power that he didn't have 6 more hours over water because we'd be watching a major hurricane pummeling thru there most likely.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:




I will say sometimes things get funny on here and also that Ernesto is keeping his shape and intensity up.
In fact:

Thats most likely the last memes of the night for me.
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Quoting AllStar17:
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.


Probably when the thing reaches the ocean.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Good to have you.

Ernie was close to popping the eye out over water. Friction with land helped to finish the job. He'll most likely begin to weaken more quickly in the next few hours.
Thanks :). Ye, looking at recent IR imagery, you can see the eyewall cloudtops have started to decrease in intensity, based on satellite.
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Quoting AllStar17:
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.
Probably once it reach the Atlantic ocean I am very concern right now that is over Africa because if I remember correctly the TW that became Maria when it was over Africa it produce flash floods and loose of life and this looks stronger than the one it produce Maria last year.
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wats good everyone! just got off work and i see ernesto finally on land. anything new popping blog all day today?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:




Eh, dog peeing on keyboard = funnier than Condescending Wonka. :-D
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Quoting AllStar17:
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.

I'd say pretty soon since it is still looking impressive.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, what a pisser.



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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather