July 2012: hottest month in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

During the 1930s, a series of epic heat waves gripped the U.S., drying up the soil in an unprecedented drought that brought about the great Dust Bowl. The most intense heat hit during July 1936, which set a record for hottest month in U.S. history that stood for 76 years. That iconic record has now fallen, bested by 0.2°F during July 2012, which is now the hottest month in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - July, and for the 12-month period August 2011 - July 2012. Twenty-four states were record warm for that 12-month period, and an additional twenty states were top-ten warm. The past fourteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring. The summer of 2012 is on pace to be a top-five warmest summer on record, and could beat the summer of 1936 as the warmest summer in U.S. history.


Figure 1. When the temperature peaked at an all-time high of 108° in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 14, 1936, the want-ad staff at the 'St. Paul Daily News' was provided with 400 pounds of ice and two electric fans to cool the air in the press room. Photo from the Minnesota Historical Society.


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperature, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. The 2012 data are still preliminary. The year-to-date period of January - July was the warmest on record by a huge margin--1.0°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. For the fourth consecutive month, a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period was set in July 2012. Five of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - July period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 46% during the year-to-date January - July period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first seven months of 2012, and 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 16th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day heavy precipitation events were the 24th greatest in the 103-year record.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - July shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first seven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Little change to the U.S. drought during the past week
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 9. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought dropped slightly, from 63% to 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought stayed constant at 46%. The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest. During July, the area of the U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought was 57%, ranking as the 5th largest drought in U.S. history:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%



Video 1. This is Not Cool: Peter Sinclair's July 2012 video from the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media couples historical footage with contemporary clips and news segments. In one of the latter, for instance, NBC anchor Brian Williams opens the network’s flagship news program with the words: “It’s now official. We are living in one of the worst droughts of the past 100 years.” NASA scientist James Hansen is featured testifying about risks of “extreme droughts” in the nation’s breadbasket, and I'm featured in a few clips talking about the drought of 2012.

I'll have a new post by noon Saturday.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post looking back at the great Heat Wave of July 1936.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting atmosweather:


The global models performed spectacularly well forecasting a pretty rare scenario.
It hasn't formed yet. :P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:



God what's hsu?

Hurricane Specialist Unit...duh.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ask hurrtracker94.....he would know

but you could start with getting a Masters/PhD

And you have to do a lot of work to get established before they let you into HSU, probably start lower....



.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ask hurrtracker94.....he would know

but you could start with getting a Masters/PhD

And you have to do a lot of work to get established before they let you into HSU, probably start lower....



God what's hsu?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
93L is over cool waters, which is one of the main reasons it is having a hard time right now. Should enter warmer waters in 72 hours or so.

TIME (HR) � � � � �0 � � 6 � �12 � �18 � �24 � �36 � �48 � �60 � �72 � �84 � �96 � 108 � 120
SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.5 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9



??????????? ohhh....SSTs
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I dont know if we have western states lurkers here but here is a western weather warning...............ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
NORTHERN NIOBRARA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 537 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES EAST OF BILL...OR 34 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...AND MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REDBIRD AND MULE CREEK JUNCTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 4349 10468 4348 10408 4299 10407 4309 10515
4327 10513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 276DEG 8KT 4317 10502
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN



GRIFFITH
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Up to 80%..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


The global models performed spectacularly well forecasting a pretty rare scenario.
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93L is over cool waters, which is one of the main reasons it is having a hard time right now. Should enter warmer waters in 72 hours or so.

SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.5 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Models: "TD7 will be 'somewhere' in the Caribbean or Gulf or dissipated, or, or, or something in 3 to 5 days."
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BTW I'm happy to see the major weather companies are going with what I've originally forecast for this season .Some where in between 13 to 15 named storms.I've forecast 15 from the start.I guess I don't seem so nutty now do I?.For all the people that doubted me well....victory for me...Or until the season ends.Lol.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


NO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY BECAUSE I never did do that at all that is pure idiosy or idiotic
Dude, I don't care if you want storms. I want storms. I love storms. Most of us love storms. However, if you try and make arguments for strengthening in an unfavorable environment, I'm going to call you out on it. It's just the way I am. I give no weight or value to unfounded opinions. This is science, not a fantasy world.

How often do you see me send storms into my location (Louisiana) just because I want one? I could have done the same thing for TD7, but I didn't. And you know why? Because conditions don't appear favorable enough for that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Does anybody know how you become part of the National Hurricane Center's HSU? What classes to take, degrees to get, etc? I'm a sophomore now...probably time to start worrying about a job after college.


See if you can go in for a shadow shift. I have done that at my local NWS office, and it's done wonders for me. I don't know if its very similar or not, but its just a suggestion
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583. SLU
Quoting Tazmanian:



your right and for being right you get a cookie


yummy :P
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By NBC News staff and wire

Flight delays and cancellations are growing across the East Coast's busiest airports Friday, after showers and thunderstorms continue to pound the Northeast part of the country.

Already airports in New York City and Philadelphia are experiencing the worst of the slowdown: 154 flights canceled at LaGuardia, 72 in Philadelphia and 54 at JFK.

Inbound flights to Newark are delayed an average of about three hours, according to FlightAware.com, and 35 flights have been canceled.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Does anybody know how you become part of the National Hurricane Center's HSU? What classes to take, degrees to get, etc? I'm a sophomore now...probably time to start worrying about a job after college.
..............here you go.............Link
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Ask hurrtracker94.....he would know

but you could start with getting a Masters/PhD

And you have to do a lot of work to get established before they let you into HSU, probably start lower....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am not a wishcaster ok so please stop calling that now please don't let me get on my knees and beg you to stop I am not a wishcaster


hmm maybe interms of intensity I think it may pull a Ernesto but a little weaker


wait what really well now I am crying cause of that now

and also thank you for the second chance yes I am not a troll and I really don't like to have storms to come my way well ok maybe the TD's and weak TS's give us a good downpour and a good blow of fresh air but nothing else really


NO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY BECAUSE I never did do that at all that is pure idiosy or idiotic


LOL. Don't cry! I said you were alright with me....
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Have you thought of contacting them [NHC]?
Well that's embarrassing.
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94E up to 80%.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Moan of the day!
So now that as most of the blog has forgotten what its about I can only add that:-
Here in Southern Europe,


Do you mind saying where in Spain you are? Message me if you don't want it on the blog. Thanks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Back to yellow..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


came off to high....swallowed the SAL....
There goes everybody's long track Cape Verde straight off africa....lol

TS in a couple of days, we'll see
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Quoting SLU:
I say 20% for 93L.



your right and for being right you get a cookie
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NHC still thinks it will develop once it reaches warmer waters.I do agree as waters are cooler in that region.Will probably start to see development in the next two or three days.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Does anybody know how you become part of the National Hurricane Center's HSU? What classes to take, degrees to get, etc? I'm a sophomore now...probably time to start worrying about a job after college.


I'd like to know too...

I hear a lot of math and science... Well duh...
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Up to 80%..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Homegrown potential has been growing throughout the day. Any thoughts on what may transpire in that regard throughout the weekend?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Back to yellow..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW REACHES WARMER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



the longer 93L stays weak the more it gos W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not writing a full blog for it, but just to let you know, I've revised my numbers for the remainder of the hurricane season. The total count of named storms has been raised slightly to 15, while the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been lowered to 6 and 3, respectively.

There is a below average chance of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast, with a slightly above average chance of a major hurricane landfall on the East Coast.

My previous forecasts are as follows...

May 8, 2012: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
June 1, 2012: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
August 10, 2012: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.


I think your updated numbers look very solid. The one thing I'd add is an increased threat of a hurricane landfall to the NE U.S. coastline.
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Quite disappointing to say the least.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Back to yellow..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW REACHES WARMER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I told people WKC was a wishcaster in disguise.But no one believed me...

I am not a wishcaster ok so please stop calling that now please don't let me get on my knees and beg you to stop I am not a wishcaster

Quoting CosmicEvents:

There's very little chance this TD is going to be decently developing...if you want some action around the Caymans it seems like the only slim chance here would be for TD7 to dissipate, and then maybe have some leftover energy that you can sort of track as a zombie storm for 10-20 degrees or so before it blooms suddenly. I've blogged before on the subject of zombie waves.

hmm maybe interms of intensity I think it may pull a Ernesto but a little weaker

Quoting MississippiWx:


Sweetie, I had WKC on ignore for several years before now because of that fact. I certainly never disagreed with you. Lol.

I took a lot of people off ignore this year just because I like to give people second chances. WKC has been ok. He's no troll, he just likes to have storms come his way.

wait what really well now I am crying cause of that now

and also thank you for the second chance yes I am not a troll and I really don't like to have storms to come my way well ok maybe the TD's and weak TS's give us a good downpour and a good blow of fresh air but nothing else really

Quoting KoritheMan:

So is that what you use to tell yourself every night that you're going to wake up to a hurricane?

NO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY BECAUSE I never did do that at all that is pure idiosy or idiotic
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Have you thought of contacting them [NHC]?

I have. No reply.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Quoting Tribucanes:
Kori's working, more than a lot of good intended American's can say. I know TA13 was just giving Kori a good ol' hard time. :) What's your outlook and timetable for going for meteorology Kori?
Hopefully sometime within the next 6 months.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Does anybody know how you become part of the National Hurricane Center's HSU? What classes to take, degrees to get, etc? I'm a sophomore now...probably time to start worrying about a job after college.
Have you thought of contacting them [NHC]?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Back to yellow..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW REACHES WARMER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
560. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 102343
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW REACHES WARMER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just wrote a NEW BLOG if you're interested.


geez.... does it matter if im interested?

*clicks to read*
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558. SLU
I say 20% for 93L.
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Does anybody know how you become part of the National Hurricane Center's HSU? What classes to take, degrees to get, etc? I'm a sophomore now...probably time to start worrying about a job after college.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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‎(Words of a Bahamian commenting on the 4x400 on ZNS news)
TELL DA JAMAICANS AN DA OTHERS DON'T LOOK BACK CAUSE V ON DA MAPP TAKE DAT
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Kori's working, more than a lot of good intended American's can say. I know TA13 was just giving Kori a good ol' hard time. :) What's your outlook and timetable for going for meteorology Kori?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
gee Bad storms all over the place tonight.......................74
WUUS54 KLCH 102319
SVRLCH
TXC241-351-361-110000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0082.120810T2319Z-120811T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...EVADALE...BUNA...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...OVER EVADALE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PINE FOREST BY 650 PM CDT...
GIST BY 655 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3032 9410 3033 9410 3034 9408 3037 9410
3049 9401 3037 9375 3035 9376 3016 9403
3031 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 311DEG 11KT 3036 9398



RUA
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not writing a full blog for it, but just to let you know, I've revised my numbers for the remainder of the hurricane season. The total count of named storms has been raised slightly to 15, while the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been lowered to 6 and 3, respectively.

There is a below average chance of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast, with a slightly above average chance of a major hurricane landfall on the East Coast.

My previous forecasts are as follows...

May 8, 2012: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
June 1, 2012: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
August 10, 2012: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.


The bonus three storms would have gotten you close to your second prediction. Bumping up the # one more time = fail. :-)
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I just wrote a NEW BLOG if you're interested.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Geez. You going to take that kind of abuse from TA? I see he edited his post, but it was too late.
Too late for him you mean? I'm far too agile to get beaten by a child.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not writing a full blog for it, but just to let you know, I've revised my numbers for the remainder of the hurricane season. The total count of named storms has been raised slightly to 15, while the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been lowered to 6 and 3, respectively.

There is a below average chance of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast, with a slightly above average chance of a major hurricane landfall on the East Coast.

My previous forecasts are as follows...

May 8, 2012: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
June 1, 2012: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
August 10, 2012: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.


I have to say Cody, i completely understand and agree...even if i didn't read the numbers....
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Quoting JLPR2:
Hmm, as Keeper said on his blog, that ULL is dropping.





But its little leg of shear in front of TD 7 is diminishing.

So this will all depend on timing.


Good Evening Wunderblog, shear should increase (20-25kts) along with trade winds should keep it in check a possible 45-50 mph passing through the heart of the Lesser Antilles. From there if the system is deep enough there is a weakness in the ridge once it gets south of Hispaniola which could pull it WNW to NW.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM RED LICK TO STAMPLEY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STANTON MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FAYETTE...CRANFIELD...MCNAIR...HAMBURG...KIRBY...G ARDEN CITY AND
NEW HOPE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.



LAT...LON 3134 9115 3136 9122 3163 9126 3164 9113
3182 9098 3161 9078 3134 9095 3135 9098
3133 9098 3134 9102 3132 9106 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 314DEG 13KT 3180 9103 3162 9114
3155 9131



BK
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Quoting atmosweather:


Good luck with that.


Thanks....ill need it....
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I'm not writing a full blog for it, but just to let you know, I've revised my numbers for the remainder of the hurricane season. The total count of named storms has been raised slightly to 15, while the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been lowered to 6 and 3, respectively.

There is a below average chance of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast, with a slightly above average chance of a major hurricane landfall on the East Coast.

My previous forecasts are as follows...

May 8, 2012: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
June 1, 2012: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
August 10, 2012: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather