July 2012: hottest month in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

During the 1930s, a series of epic heat waves gripped the U.S., drying up the soil in an unprecedented drought that brought about the great Dust Bowl. The most intense heat hit during July 1936, which set a record for hottest month in U.S. history that stood for 76 years. That iconic record has now fallen, bested by 0.2°F during July 2012, which is now the hottest month in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - July, and for the 12-month period August 2011 - July 2012. Twenty-four states were record warm for that 12-month period, and an additional twenty states were top-ten warm. The past fourteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring. The summer of 2012 is on pace to be a top-five warmest summer on record, and could beat the summer of 1936 as the warmest summer in U.S. history.


Figure 1. When the temperature peaked at an all-time high of 108° in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 14, 1936, the want-ad staff at the 'St. Paul Daily News' was provided with 400 pounds of ice and two electric fans to cool the air in the press room. Photo from the Minnesota Historical Society.


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperature, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. The 2012 data are still preliminary. The year-to-date period of January - July was the warmest on record by a huge margin--1.0°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. For the fourth consecutive month, a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period was set in July 2012. Five of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - July period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 46% during the year-to-date January - July period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first seven months of 2012, and 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 16th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day heavy precipitation events were the 24th greatest in the 103-year record.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - July shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first seven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Little change to the U.S. drought during the past week
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 9. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought dropped slightly, from 63% to 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought stayed constant at 46%. The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest. During July, the area of the U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought was 57%, ranking as the 5th largest drought in U.S. history:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%



Video 1. This is Not Cool: Peter Sinclair's July 2012 video from the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media couples historical footage with contemporary clips and news segments. In one of the latter, for instance, NBC anchor Brian Williams opens the network’s flagship news program with the words: “It’s now official. We are living in one of the worst droughts of the past 100 years.” NASA scientist James Hansen is featured testifying about risks of “extreme droughts” in the nation’s breadbasket, and I'm featured in a few clips talking about the drought of 2012.

I'll have a new post by noon Saturday.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post looking back at the great Heat Wave of July 1936.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Afternoon all........long time lurker here.....boring blog today.........having major thunderstorms in Slidell, LA this afternoon. I wish I had a window at my desk......
I remember u from last year...
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193. Zappy


incredible...
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The NHC calling for dissipation in 3 days:

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, the NHC learned their lesson with weak cyclones in the eastern Caribbean. 93L also no longer looks like a threat to develop.

Oh well.


In the discussion, they say the center "appears to be elongating" and now that convection is over the center it's difficult to tell if it's closed. LOL. It has been fairly elongated since last night. Being on the SE periphery of the Bermuda high caused a great deal of subsidence and it was pressing down against TD7, causing the center to elongate. Now that it is oriented more south of the ridge, it has begun to consolidate a little better this afternoon. I don't doubt that it will eventually open back into a wave in the Caribbean, but I don't see it being unreasonable to expect a TS before it reaches the islands especially in its current state.

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wow; possible TS (iffy) entering the Antilles and the forecast track dead ends (possible dissipation).....I suppose we now have official permission to gloat over every frame of the loops for the next two days for clues and to which way the coin will flip.

Not going to post the full discussion but here is the nutshell:

GIVEN THE CURRENT FRAGILE STATE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD...THE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN SHOWS DISSIPATION
INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3.


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Quoting keithneese:
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southern Mobile County in southwest Alabama...

* until 415 PM CDT

* at 331 PM CDT...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging
winds over 60 mph was located 4 miles west of west Mobile...or 6
miles south of Semmes...and moving east at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
west Mobile... Midtown Mobile... downtown Mobile...
Tillmans Corner... Semmes... Prichard...
i65 and US 45... i65 and i165... i10 and i65...

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 15 and 28. This
includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 10.

Lat...Lon 3064 8839 3081 8832 3075 8803 3074 8801
3072 8801 3071 8800 3064 8803 3064 8805
3063 8805 3060 8805 3057 8808 3054 8807
3053 8808
time...Mot...loc 2032z 290deg 20kt 3069 8826


This storm just went over the top of me I unplugged everything. Lightning was poping and rumbling bad rain was very hard then all of a sudden it stopped.

sheri
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, the NHC learned their lesson with weak cyclones in the eastern Caribbean. 93L also no longer looks like a threat to develop.

Oh well.

Don't rule out 93L. It will be in warmer waters in 3 days.
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TIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNUSUALLY RICH IN MOISTURE...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL RAISE
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MORE RAPIDLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN MAINE SATURDAY MORNING.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-023>025-NHZ001>010-110 030-
/O.NEW.KGYX.FF.A.0004.120810T1800Z-120811T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-COASTAL YORK-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON...
WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...
JACKMAN...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD... FARMINGTON...
WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...SANFO RD...BERWICK...
NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...
LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...BIDDEFORD...SACO...
OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...
WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...COLEBROOK...BERLIN.. .LANCASTER...
LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...
WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARL ESTOWN...
CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHEST ER...DOVER
1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MAINE...
ANDROSCOGGIN...CENTRAL SOMERSET...COASTAL CUMBERLAND...
COASTAL YORK...INTERIOR CUMBERLAND...INTERIOR YORK...
KENNEBEC... NORTHERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN OXFORD...SAGADAHOC...
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN OXFORD AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET. IN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...BELKNAP...MERRIMACK...NORTHERN CARROLL...
NORTHERN COOS...NORTHERN GRAFTON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN
COOS... SOUTHERN GRAFTON...STRAFFORD AND SULLIVAN.

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING AT ELEVATED LEVELS
FROM THURSDAY`S RAINFALL ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID RISES.
ADDITIONALLY...STREAMS AND CREEKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RISE
RAPIDLY ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

STJEAN/NWS GRAY ME
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Watch TD 7 burn the NHC and not struggle as much as Ernesto. LOL.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.I find it rather interesting that why it was hot the tropics here in the Atlantic were dead.This also occured in 2010 when it was hot and the atmosphere over the Atlantic was unfavorable.I think their is a correlation and if the planet continues to warm we could be talking about less and less T.C to track.


Me thinks September will be very active.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, the NHC learned their lesson with weak cyclones in the eastern Caribbean. 93L also no longer looks like a threat to develop.

Oh well.


Remember when it was guaranteed to hit the east coast as a major hurricane last week?
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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

RIC005-009-102045-
/O.CON.KBOX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-120810T2045Z/
NEWPORT RI-WASHINGTON RI-
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN NEWPORT COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NARRAGANSETT...OR
NEAR SOUTH KINGSTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KINGSTON...JAMESTOWN AND NORTH KINGSTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7158 4158 7155 4161 7145 4161 7141
4157 7143 4151 7140 4158 7137 4153 7132
4157 7130 4159 7136 4157 7129 4145 7138
4145 7141 4149 7141 4140 7146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 199DEG 25KT 4143 7149

$$
FIELD
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcluvincane:
Looks like ts Gordon at 5

5:00 is out...Nope
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LOL, the NHC learned their lesson with weak cyclones in the eastern Caribbean. 93L also no longer looks like a threat to develop.

Oh well.
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Quoting mlewchuk:
I have a couple of questions about the data that Dr Masters presented in his blog today.

1. The Year to date temperature anomaly graph shows much greater departure from average early in the year when compared to later in the year. In fact the difference between the end December variation and the beginning January variation almost looks like the weather can read a calendar. Am I interpreting the data incorrectly?


The graph is a bit bizarre from a statistics point of view.

Year to date variation is measured starting Jan 1st. Therefore, the January year to date variation consists of calculating the variance of 31 data points, and also, the December year to data variance consists of calculating the average of 365 data points.

Therefore, any aberrations that occur in January will be amplified in this plot, when compared to that same aberration in December.

This does not mean that January has more variability than December. It means the way this stat was compiled has more variability.
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178. Zappy
Quoting MississippiWx:


Soooo why are you telling us? Take shelter!

Because my brother is being an idiot and refuses to go to the basement. But it's clearing up now.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
BRB... race on track...
I'm back.... LOL

[extremely big grin]
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Sure would like some weather here in Kemah/League City area. We've had storms and showers around us for the last several weeks but not a drop where I am. I think Patrap is sucking all of the storms and rain his way and leaving none for me:(
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Quoting keithneese:
I'm in Mobile, AL, and it just got really dark here. Thunder booming. This will be our second round today.


Get ready for somemore tonight, there is another training your way fromm MS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Real Bad weather in the northeast today..stay safe up there folks..Listen to your Local warnings ok..................TORNADO WARNING
CTC003-013-102100-
/O.NEW.KBOX.TO.W.0004.120810T2022Z-120810T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANCHESTER...
WEST CENTRAL TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
GLASTONBURY...OR NEAR EAST HAMPTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BOLTON...TOLLAND AND
ELLINGTON.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ABOVE THE GROUND AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
EXTEND TO THE SURFACE. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 7257 4188 7235 4162 7249 4163 7250
4164 7251 4163 7261 4163 7262 4164 7264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 197DEG 25KT 4161 7258

$$

WTB
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TD7 is approaching the area where a lot of developing TCs get a boost in organization (55W). It already seems to be organizing better this afternoon.

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New floater up on 94E/ex Ernesto:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
TD7

5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 10
Location: 13.7°N 51.9°W
Moving: W at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


no 5 day cone on this little guy
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 51.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TD7

5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 10
Location: 13.7°N 51.9°W
Moving: W at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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Quoting Tazmanian:
I got a iPad 2 today love it

I knew you would.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I just wanted to take the time to say thanks to everyone who stopped by my blog yesterday. I didn't get a chance to read any of the comments until this afternoon, but I did read them, and appreciate everyone who stopped by. That's why I keep making them.
Well deserved.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
OAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño
Updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season
August 9, 2012


Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012 in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Credit: NOAA)
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:

12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”

However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September.

“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.

“We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.”

“It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit www.ready.gov to learn more.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Soooo why are you telling us? Take shelter!



lol lol lol thats funny
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Quoting Zappy:
Oh god... tornado warning for me in Glastonbury, CT


Soooo why are you telling us? Take shelter!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southern Mobile County in southwest Alabama...

* until 415 PM CDT

* at 331 PM CDT...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging
winds over 60 mph was located 4 miles west of west Mobile...or 6
miles south of Semmes...and moving east at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
west Mobile... Midtown Mobile... downtown Mobile...
Tillmans Corner... Semmes... Prichard...
i65 and US 45... i65 and i165... i10 and i65...

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 15 and 28. This
includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 10.

Lat...Lon 3064 8839 3081 8832 3075 8803 3074 8801
3072 8801 3071 8800 3064 8803 3064 8805
3063 8805 3060 8805 3057 8808 3054 8807
3053 8808
time...Mot...loc 2032z 290deg 20kt 3069 8826
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I just wanted to take the time to say thanks to everyone who stopped by my blog yesterday. I didn't get a chance to read any of the comments until this afternoon, but I did read them, and appreciate everyone who stopped by. That's why I keep making them.
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159. Zappy
Oh god... tornado warning for me in Glastonbury, CT
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Quoting Tazmanian:
I got a iPad 2 today love it

Cool Taz! My daughter has been begging me for one.
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Quoting muddertracker:
I'd like to see TD7's lower structure. Did any recent scans get a look at it?


This is the most up-to-date version I can find.

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for those of us curious about the "blob" south of Florida, I found this info on the Key West weather discussion...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO OUR WESTERN WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SERVICE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WITH THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN KEPT AT A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST PERIODS. BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...DEEP RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS DEEP RIDGE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ADVERTISED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
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155. Skyepony (Mod)
Everybody out there was pretty sad about Morpheus crashing & exploding yesterday. They worked really hard on it. Difficult cutting edge stuff there. It was tested to the nines.
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I got a iPad 2 today love it
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OAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño
Updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season
August 9, 2012


Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012 in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Credit: NOAA)
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:

12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”

However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September.

“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.

“We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.”

“It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit www.ready.gov to learn more.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
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Looks like some drought relief is on the way:



Temps are also forecast to be below average in a lot of areas that have baked this summer so that's good.
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Updated forecast for TD Seven:



Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Everything's moved up this year. By the time that high did build back in, if it builds back end, and we get a storm that could be steered in close by it, this year's Cape Verde season will be winding down.

Somehow I really doubt that.
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149. JLPR2
Ha! Like I said yesterday, I will die laughing if 93L doesn't develop and TD 7 reaches cane intensity. XD

Now, more serious, here is the next buoy in TD 7's way, pressure is already dropping.

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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Afternoon all........long time lurker here.....boring blog today.........having major thunderstorms in Slidell, LA this afternoon. I wish I had a window at my desk......


Not alot going on over in Lafayette as well...
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Afternoon all........long time lurker here.....boring blog today.........having major thunderstorms in Slidell, LA this afternoon. I wish I had a window at my desk......
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Hottest July ever along with worst drought in a generation is quite the story. Not grabbing like a big storm, just devastating to everyone. Farmers looking at the lowest output in 50 years in many many areas. Food prices, in time, soaring for all of us. With the last fifteen being the hottest years in history, amazing that this year is even hotter. Global Warming is happening faster than most climate scientists allude to. Good they are being cautious, but after the last fifteen seasons of scorchers, hard to comprehend how this year is even hotter. If this season isn't a clear warning sign of what's to come, I don't know what is.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANCHESTER...
WEST CENTRAL TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
GLASTONBURY...OR NEAR EAST HAMPTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BOLTON...TOLLAND AND
ELLINGTON.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ABOVE THE GROUND AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
EXTEND TO THE SURFACE. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 7257 4188 7235 4162 7249 4163 7250
4164 7251 4163 7261 4163 7262 4164 7264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 197DEG 25KT 4161 7258

$$

WTB
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather