July 2012: hottest month in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

During the 1930s, a series of epic heat waves gripped the U.S., drying up the soil in an unprecedented drought that brought about the great Dust Bowl. The most intense heat hit during July 1936, which set a record for hottest month in U.S. history that stood for 76 years. That iconic record has now fallen, bested by 0.2°F during July 2012, which is now the hottest month in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - July, and for the 12-month period August 2011 - July 2012. Twenty-four states were record warm for that 12-month period, and an additional twenty states were top-ten warm. The past fourteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring. The summer of 2012 is on pace to be a top-five warmest summer on record, and could beat the summer of 1936 as the warmest summer in U.S. history.


Figure 1. When the temperature peaked at an all-time high of 108° in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 14, 1936, the want-ad staff at the 'St. Paul Daily News' was provided with 400 pounds of ice and two electric fans to cool the air in the press room. Photo from the Minnesota Historical Society.


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperature, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. The 2012 data are still preliminary. The year-to-date period of January - July was the warmest on record by a huge margin--1.0°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. For the fourth consecutive month, a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period was set in July 2012. Five of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - July period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 46% during the year-to-date January - July period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first seven months of 2012, and 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 16th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day heavy precipitation events were the 24th greatest in the 103-year record.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - July shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first seven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Little change to the U.S. drought during the past week
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 9. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought dropped slightly, from 63% to 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought stayed constant at 46%. The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest. During July, the area of the U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought was 57%, ranking as the 5th largest drought in U.S. history:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%



Video 1. This is Not Cool: Peter Sinclair's July 2012 video from the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media couples historical footage with contemporary clips and news segments. In one of the latter, for instance, NBC anchor Brian Williams opens the network’s flagship news program with the words: “It’s now official. We are living in one of the worst droughts of the past 100 years.” NASA scientist James Hansen is featured testifying about risks of “extreme droughts” in the nation’s breadbasket, and I'm featured in a few clips talking about the drought of 2012.

I'll have a new post by noon Saturday.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post looking back at the great Heat Wave of July 1936.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANCHESTER...
WEST CENTRAL TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
GLASTONBURY...OR NEAR EAST HAMPTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BOLTON...TOLLAND AND
ELLINGTON.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ABOVE THE GROUND AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
EXTEND TO THE SURFACE. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 7257 4188 7235 4162 7249 4163 7250
4164 7251 4163 7261 4163 7262 4164 7264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 197DEG 25KT 4161 7258

$$

WTB
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'd like to see TD7's lower structure. Did any recent scans get a look at it?
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93L went poof lol
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231
WUUS52 KTAE 102018
SVRTAE
FLC005-102100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0374.120810T2018Z-120810T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 316 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNN HAVEN...OR NEAR PFN-BAY
COUNTY AIRPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PANAMA CITY...HILAND PARK...SPRINGFIELD...CALLAWAY AND TYNDALL AFB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3026 8586 3023 8583 3026 8579 3024 8575
3020 8573 3024 8570 3022 8572 3029 8577
3029 8582 3036 8569 3017 8539 3000 8539
2995 8544 2996 8551 3005 8560 3009 8570
3023 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 321DEG 21KT 3024 8571



42-DVD
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...................geez..just LOOK at the northeast getting Blasted with bad storms!!..stay safe up there folks, listen to your local warnings, just hope no tornado's form up there with this
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Quoting MississippiWx:
No doubt that it has been a hot one for most of the summer. Oddly enough, this has been one of the cooler summers in a few years where I live. We've consistently been in a weakness between the Plains ridge and A/B high. We've been lucky.


Afternoon Misswx, all. It's been relatively cool here this summer too for mostly the same reason. Still disgustingly hot of course. Lol. But compared to elsewhere it's not as extreme.



Fair

93°F

34°C
Humidity56%
Wind SpeedSW 13 mph
Barometer29.86 in (1011.1 mb)
Dewpoint75°F (24°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index105°F (41°C)



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

August 26 isn't the end of Cape Verde season...it's the beginning.

Everything's moved up this year. By the time that high did build back in, if it builds back end, and we get a storm that could be steered in close by it, this year's Cape Verde season will be winding down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Cant say it for sure as the obs are sketchy down that away from the NDBC data.

But I'm sure something is trying to form at the mid layer.. whether it deepens remains to be seen tonight.


Check the FRONTS and MSLP Boxes

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Thank you very much!! for the information,we'll see what happens in the next hours.
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BRB... race on track...
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FLZ051-052-055>057-061-102045-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HARDEE...NORTHEASTERN DESOTO...
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE...NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR DUETTE...OR 20 MILES WEST OF WAUCHULA...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH...WILL AFFECT DUETTE...MYAKKA HEAD...FORT GREEN AND ONA...
UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2749 8237 2771 8226 2774 8145 2716 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 286DEG 11KT 2755 8213

$$
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Quoting mlewchuk:
1. The Year to date temperature anomaly graph shows much greater departure from average early in the year when compared to later in the year. In fact the difference between the end December variation and the beginning January variation almost looks like the weather can read a calendar. Am I interpreting the data incorrectly?
That particular graph is based on a January to December time period, of course. And because it illustrates anomalies over multiple months in chronological order, there is much more "noise" in the beginning months. That "noise" is smoothed away by the addition of subsequent months in that year, until by December any particular year's line is practically flat. Look at it this way: suppose the anomaly for the first two months of a given year was four degrees, meaning a YTD average of (obviously) four. If the third month comes in at two degrees, the YTD average would drop all the way to 3.33 degrees. Now imagine that the first eleven months of that year were all four degrees (again for a YTD average of four). If December then came in at two degrees, the yearly average would only fall to 3.83 degrees--not so very far from the previous month's four.

The takeaway from that garph is that, despite the smoothing obvious by last month, 2012 has been a huge, hot outlier from all other years in the record.
Quoting mlewchuk:
2. It looks to me like the 2012 line (red) is showing record highs in March, April, May, June and July.
However in his narrative he says the following":
"So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July."
Doesn't the statement disagree with the chart.
Are you referring to the same chart (Figure 2)? If so, it doesn't disagree at all. Remember, each month's anomaly is added to the YTD figure, which is why--again--the annual lines smooth out a bit more with each subsequent month added to the average.
Quoting mlewchuk:
FYI, I am not a GW denier, I just want to understand the data set. I am geophysicist who teaches Earth and Environmental Science at a distinctly Anti-GW school (many of our students parents are oil companty executives) so I want to be sure that I understand graph before I show them to my students.
Best of luck to you!
Quoting gordydunnot:
71 I believe it is basically a smooth line because it's an average of the preceding 6 months so you don't readily see the month to month changes.But I could be wrong standing by for feedback.
That is it in a nutshell, indeed.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


There are distinctly anti-GW "schools" ??? That is rather depressing for the future of humanity
True that. You think by now we humans would have the lesson that pretending a problem doesn't exist is not a solution to that problem, and--more importantly--that it never works. It never has, and it never will...
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Quoting Articuno:

Dude..it's only august 10th.
We still got what, 3 more months? (unless elnino shuts it off early)


El Nino will probably shut it off early if it follows the historical trends. It's pretty much a no win situation for me. The synoptic pattern this year is still similar to the past two years, which means that the only real shot at a Louisiana landfall (I would have chased Ernesto into Mexico, but again, no money. Plus I'm pretty sure there's the passport issue :P) I have is for a storm to sneak up from the Caribbean under the nose of the subtropical ridge. But as we saw with Ernesto, and as we're seeing now with TD7, conditions aren't so hot there during El Nino years.

When all else fails, turn to severe weather. Or hell, even winter weather.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

While I still believe most of this month will be dominated by a recurve pattern, the end of the 12z GFS run today showed high pressure building back down once again, possibly meaning we could have a chance of getting a long track hurricane closer to the US by the end of the CV season.


August 26 isn't the end of Cape Verde season...it's the beginning.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Mr.Patrap,I know you are not a big fan of doing predictions when it comes to the tropic,as you said many times I don't like to comment on ghost storms,but because you have access to a lot of information and graphics,in your opinion is that a low level circulation trying to form south of western Cuba.Thank you!.


Cant say it for sure as the obs are sketchy down that away from the NDBC data.

But I'm sure something is trying to form at the mid layer.. whether it deepens remains to be seen tonight.


Check the FRONTS and MSLP Boxes

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
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The blob that is at 10N/32W appears to have a swirl to it???
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Back to the drawing board: Nasa's Morpheus moon lander in fiery crash at Cape Canaveral (lucky it was unmanned!)

Insect-like vehicle was due to fly cargo to the moon and beyond
Lost control during a trial run at Kennedy Space Center in Florida

By Sam Shead

PUBLISHED: 09:00 GMT, 10 August 2012 | UPDATED: 15:14 GMT, 10 August 2012


A small NASA lander being tested for missions to the moon and other destinations beyond Earth crashed and burned after veering off course during a trial run at the Kennedy Space Center yesterday.

There were no injuries after the prototype, known as Morpheus but dubbed 'the beetle', burst into flames near the runway formerly used by NASA's space shuttles.

The insect-like vehicle, designed and built by engineers at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, had made several flights attached to a crane before Thursday's attempted free-flight.

Link


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Yeah compared to what rolled thru the Lesser Antilles many times before this should be a breeze. Just don;t stand outside under a coconut tree. IMO/jk consult your local official weatherman.
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Quoting Articuno:

Dude..it's only august 10th.
We still got what, 3 more months? (unless elnino shuts it off early)

While I still believe most of this month will be dominated by a recurve pattern, the end of the 12z GFS run today showed high pressure building back down once again, possibly meaning we could have a chance of getting a long track hurricane closer to the US by the end of the CV season.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Mr.Patrap,I know you are not a big fan of doing predictions when it comes to the tropic,as you said many times I don't like to comment on ghost storms,but because you have access to a lot of information and graphics,in your opinion is that a low level circulation trying to form south of western Cuba.Thank you!.
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Quoting Articuno:

Huh?

I thought they issued ts watches when Ernesto was a td?


They did
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
719
WUUS51 KBOX 102000
SVRBOX
CTC003-013-015-102045-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SV.W.0081.120810T2000Z-120810T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
SOUTHERN TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANSFIELD...
SOUTHWESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WILLIMANTIC...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF MARLBOROUGH...
AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...HEBRON...COLUMBIA...ANDOVER
AND COVENTRY.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED WARNING. REMAIN CALM...BUT TAKE
COVER NOW. GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL
AS DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. GET TO SAFE SHELTER NOW...
INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER AND AVOID
FLOODED ROADS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND.



LAT...LON 4188 7235 4179 7210 4168 7219 4171 7224
4169 7226 4167 7227 4164 7233 4160 7232
4160 7233 4159 7241 4158 7247 4163 7250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 208DEG 29KT 4150 7246



WTB
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Noboday sees the slight northward component with td7?

stop day dreaming




YOU KNOW I got my forecast coming up soon

oh and also I say we will have TS watches for Barbados, St. Vincet, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Gaudeloupe at 5pm advistory and TD 7 becomes TS Gordon 40MPH if not more

TD7/TS Gordon looks really good now

Quoting BahaHurican:
[-] the posts. Works most of the time.

It's only been there for a couple days, no matter how lonw it seems... lol

I thought they were poisonous...

How come it's only wrong to forecast a storm getting close to the Caymans when you're from the Caymans???

uh...
just sayin?
...
>






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Quoting KoritheMan:
Decided that if this hurricane season is yet another bust in terms of chase potential, I will instead opt for severe weather. I'll have more money this winter, anyway.

Dude..it's only august 10th.
We still got what, 3 more months? (unless elnino shuts it off early)
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NORTHEASTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

* AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF DURHAM...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF GUILFORD...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MERIDEN...MIDDLETOWN...PORTLAND...EAST HAMPTON AND CROMWELL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Barbados246 look out then, thank god it doesn't look to dangerous. Should get by with a good book or something.


You think?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
When a TD has the potential to develop into a TS the protocol is to issue TS watches and warnings the same for a TS developing into a hurricane, hurricane watches and warnings are issued.
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Quoting hericane96:
found this on the weather channal explaning whats in the western caribbean.


An upper-level trough which brought heavy rain to the northern Caribbean islands, and whose strong high-altitude winds "sheared" the remnants of Florence, has now, on its southern periphery, contributed to the formation of a concentrated area of convection (thunderstorms) over the western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that cluster of tstorms spinning, i.e. what meteorologists call a "mesoscale convective vortex" (MCV) has formed, which can sometimes lead to surface low pressure forming. That's what happened with the recent tropical storm wannabe in the Bahamas and Florida. On the other hand, such features can dissipate after a few hours. We'll watch to see what this one does.
..yes thats the one we have been watching all along..gee hope it does NOT develop
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just realized I'm under a tornado watch.


Stay safe MA. Some crazy weather going on today.
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114. VR46L
Quoting allancalderini:
Might become Gordon tonight.



The air is a little dry but have seen worse

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Decided that if this hurricane season is yet another bust in terms of chase potential, I will instead opt for severe weather. I'll have more money this winter, anyway.
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Wow,I am back after 7 hours off line and that so called monster wave 93L is almost gone. Well,let's see if something develops in the future from the lower latitude Central African wave.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just realized I'm under a tornado watch.
..be careful..alot of Bad weather headed your way.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Map of the 1936 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

Dare I say Don... doubled?
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found this on the weather channal explaning whats in the western caribbean.


An upper-level trough which brought heavy rain to the northern Caribbean islands, and whose strong high-altitude winds "sheared" the remnants of Florence, has now, on its southern periphery, contributed to the formation of a concentrated area of convection (thunderstorms) over the western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that cluster of tstorms spinning, i.e. what meteorologists call a "mesoscale convective vortex" (MCV) has formed, which can sometimes lead to surface low pressure forming. That's what happened with the recent tropical storm wannabe in the Bahamas and Florida. On the other hand, such features can dissipate after a few hours. We'll watch to see what this one does.
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Just realized I'm under a tornado watch.
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Quoting mlewchuk:
I have a couple of questions about the data that Dr Masters presented in his blog today.

1. The Year to date temperature anomaly graph shows much greater departure from average early in the year when compared to later in the year. In fact the difference between the end December variation and the beginning January variation almost looks like the weather can read a calendar. Am I interpreting the data incorrectly?

2. It looks to me like the 2012 line (red) is showing record highs in March, April, May, June and July.
However in his narrative he says the following":
"So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July."
Doesn't the statement disagree with the chart?

FYI, I am not a GW denier, I just want to understand the data set. I am geophysicist who teaches Earth and Environmental Science at a distinctly Anti-GW school (many of our students parents are oil companty executives) so I want to be sure that I understand graph before I show them to my students.


There are distinctly anti-GW "schools" ??? That is rather depressing for the future of humanity
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Barbados246 look out then, thank god it doesn't look to dangerous. Should get by with a good book or something.
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..............ok, it looks like the first storms from that big blob below cuba are starting to move towards florida..guess it IS the blob moving to the gulf..at least it looks that way right now..we'll see
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The structure od TD7 is getting better by the hour, and looks close to being a TS. it will be no surprise if watches and warnings are posted for some of the islands of the central lesser antilles
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Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe over there..alot of bad weather today all over the place


Thanks Largo, the bottom just fell out of it. Ya'll stay safe down there too!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have to upgrade the storm first..

Huh?

I thought they issued ts watches when Ernesto was a td?
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Baha...Poisonous to touch...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good,.... we can get away from politics...

and discuss climate!

: )
Leastways we'll be on topic that way... lol

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Quoting CaribBoy:
Noboday sees the slight northward component with td7?
narrow.cone.by.nhc..they.got.this.one
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Quoting washingtonian115:
T.D 7 looks really good on visible and rainbow IR.
Might become Gordon tonight.
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..............gee the whole east coast is getting it today
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather