July 2012: hottest month in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

During the 1930s, a series of epic heat waves gripped the U.S., drying up the soil in an unprecedented drought that brought about the great Dust Bowl. The most intense heat hit during July 1936, which set a record for hottest month in U.S. history that stood for 76 years. That iconic record has now fallen, bested by 0.2°F during July 2012, which is now the hottest month in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - July, and for the 12-month period August 2011 - July 2012. Twenty-four states were record warm for that 12-month period, and an additional twenty states were top-ten warm. The past fourteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring. The summer of 2012 is on pace to be a top-five warmest summer on record, and could beat the summer of 1936 as the warmest summer in U.S. history.


Figure 1. When the temperature peaked at an all-time high of 108° in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 14, 1936, the want-ad staff at the 'St. Paul Daily News' was provided with 400 pounds of ice and two electric fans to cool the air in the press room. Photo from the Minnesota Historical Society.


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperature, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. The 2012 data are still preliminary. The year-to-date period of January - July was the warmest on record by a huge margin--1.0°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. For the fourth consecutive month, a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period was set in July 2012. Five of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - July period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 46% during the year-to-date January - July period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first seven months of 2012, and 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 16th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day heavy precipitation events were the 24th greatest in the 103-year record.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - July shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first seven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Little change to the U.S. drought during the past week
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 9. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought dropped slightly, from 63% to 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought stayed constant at 46%. The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest. During July, the area of the U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought was 57%, ranking as the 5th largest drought in U.S. history:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%



Video 1. This is Not Cool: Peter Sinclair's July 2012 video from the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media couples historical footage with contemporary clips and news segments. In one of the latter, for instance, NBC anchor Brian Williams opens the network’s flagship news program with the words: “It’s now official. We are living in one of the worst droughts of the past 100 years.” NASA scientist James Hansen is featured testifying about risks of “extreme droughts” in the nation’s breadbasket, and I'm featured in a few clips talking about the drought of 2012.

I'll have a new post by noon Saturday.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post looking back at the great Heat Wave of July 1936.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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The latest round of obs shows nothing in the way of a closed circulation, but its possible it may be located further to the S than the advisory positions, thus they are still checking. Next update will be the telling one.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
i'd like to point out that most HHs flights into Ernesto showed little to no true west winds until the far western Caribbean.

thats true

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes sorry I fixed
I don't like using SCATS because there not all that got as I said befor RECON beans SCATS anyday


yep


Scats are a very reliable analytical tool. While I agree that HH obs are the best you should not simply dismiss the Oscat pass from last night because it does not support your own conclusions
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Quoting atmosweather:


NNW side actually but yes, they have to pass thru the circulation to the S side to find out.

yes sorry I fixed
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The Oscat pass from last night did not show a closed circulation with TD7 so it remains to be seen what the HH will find this morning


I don't like using SCATS because there not all that got as I said befor RECON beans SCATS anyday

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


They have not gone to the southern part yet to see if west winds are present.

yep
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Good point Stormp they have to flow pretty quick to the east when you subtract out the west movement of the storm. Hope I got that right a little hard to visualize sometimes.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC HURRICANE ERNESTO...IS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF AND APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW REACHES WARMER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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1329 comment Pcola57, has a link to the Barbados weather service. They have intermediate adv. coming out at 8 o'clock, along with a nice radar.
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i'd like to point out that most HHs flights into Ernesto showed little to no true west winds until the far western Caribbean.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well DUH!!! they just entered it from NE side what in the world do you expect if ya have common sense use it please

Hence the "yet" at the end of my statement... Dude you really should be more polite with your comments, just saying... I almost never bash anyone for their comments, not even some of your crazy ones, it'd be nice if you showed some respect in return.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


looks like 2 lows....
idk why

post it please
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1375 GeorgiaStormz: troll attack?

Too much politics apparently. Haven't had the nerve to read back... too tempting to respond... when ya know blog rules say ya can't
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
HHs are finding TS winds, but no west winds yet.


They have not gone to the southern part yet to see if west winds are present.
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Good morning

The Oscat pass from last night did not show a closed circulation with TD7 so it remains to be seen what the HH will find this morning

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well DUH!!! they just entered it from NE side what in the world do you expect if ya have common sense use it please


NNW side actually but yes, they have to pass thru the circulation to the S side to find out.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
HHs are finding TS winds, but no west winds yet.

well DUH!!! they just entered it from NNW side what in the world do you expect if ya have common sense use it please
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if they find the circulation stronger and stronger winds TD7/TS gordon it may survive the unfavorable conditions in the Eastern Caribbean if they find a weak circulation or no circulation and TD or less winds the dissipation will become more likely time will tell
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Fresh OSCAT...looks closed to me !!!


looks like 2 lows....
idk why
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1376. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Quoting QMiami:
Wow the blog had a terrible night - my finger hurts from all the ! and -

Do we think TD7 will ever get to Gordon?


troll attack?
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HHs are finding TS winds, but no west winds yet.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HH not yet in the storm per say yet and they finding stronger winds


Lots of rain-contaminated and suspect 35-40 mph winds being found along with some readings that might be good enough. But I'm not all that surprised at that...what matters is if the system is remains a tropical cyclone or not and the only way to find out is to look for those W-erlies.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
eeeek, its a little fire an hill in my yard......too lazy to kill them, made a soaked it with water inside and out nad smashed it down to a little mud pile...soon theyll dig out....

Who sent it anyway?
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1371. QMiami
Wow the blog had a terrible night - my finger hurts from all the ! and -

Do we think TD7 will ever get to Gordon?
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HH not yet in the storm per say yet and they finding stronger winds
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Time: 11:05:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0N 58.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 688.8 mb (~ 20.34 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,320 meters (~ 10,892 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.7 mb (~ 29.93 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 75° at 40 knots (From the ENE at ~ 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 9.3°C (~ 48.7°F)
Dew Pt: -6.9°C (~ 19.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Could be TS Gordon.
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Hmm seems they are flying in there at an altitude 1,000 feet instead of the more common 2,500 or 5,000 feet. Now I'm really interested to see this data...
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Giving someone access to info in 10 seconds by typing a keyword compared to having to find it in the encyclopedia is a huge difference in brain function. It's why we are the "NOW" world. Now world doesn't exercise the frontal lobe nearly enough.


Interesting subject, actually. The information age has definitely changed the type and depth of knowledge we retain versus the knowledge we have to either mine/research (having not known it), or to find a reference to (when our memory is incomplete).

I do disagree though, that there is a "huge difference in brain function". Looking up data via keywords is different than thumbing through an encyclopedia. But then again, perhaps the old days were easier (we all knew how to quickly find an entry in an encyclopedia or dictionary), while today we may have to briefly ponder which keywords and which order to search for them in order to look up our data (often 2-3 well-constructed keywords will get you the match quickly),

I think that we exercise our brains just as much these days since we have freed up brain-memory to store more advanced constructs ;)
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HH plane about to enter TD 07...lets see if there are any W-erly winds down there S of the center!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
sigh... According to the WUbers dogpiling Wunderkidcayman, Ernesto was s'posta dead long before it entered the Caribbean. Even the NHC zombified it for travel through the Caribbean as a Wave before a possible revival as a TropicalStorm in the Bay of Honduras.
Yet Ernesto kept going and going and going and going...

So unless you can explain how a LOw with a travel-speed greater than it's spin (MaximumSustainedWinds minus travel-speed) managed to organize itself enough to become a TropicalDepression -- then how TD.7 has continued to remain a TD with a travel-speed more than 1&1/2 times greater than its spin -- ya really haven't a clue as to how 2012's HurricaneSeason is operating... or as to when TD.7 is gonna die. I certainly don't...
...and strongly suspect that even the best of the experts are gnashing their teeth and scratching their heads over what's become commonplace this year: "absurd" TropicalCyclones in the Atlantic.



thanks for that point

well guys I'll stand by to what I said and I will wait till it has passes the windwards and HH flys in however that prob. of dissipation is kinda going up I had it at 20% now I have it at 30% we will have to wait and see

by the way you guys must be carefull when talking behind someones back more so on like this blog cause you never not if the person is gone or looking at what your saying about them

that goes to 954FtLCane, allancalderini, AussieStorm

NOW Aussie ASCAT passes right by it in early morning and suggested of a closed circulation however it did miss the COC and the Eastern side but caught the W side and it seems to show of what very well could be

also rgb is starting to show more and more daylight and is starting to show the circulation is still there however I am waiting for more daylight to confirm it

Quoting AussieStorm:

Let him bring it... all models show otherwise. I hope for a good ASCAT or OSCAT pass to really show him the truth.

He has to back up his comments also.
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Good morning. I'm not real sure if this still has a closed circulation or not... Either way it remains very weak:

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sigh... According to the WUbers dogpiling wunderkidcayman, Ernesto was s'posta dead long before it entered the Caribbean. Even the NHC zombified it for travel through the Caribbean as a Wave before a possible revival as a TropicalStorm in the Bay of Honduras.
Yet Ernesto kept going and going and going and going...

So unless you can explain how a LOw with a travel-speed greater than it's spin* managed to organize itself enough to become a TropicalDepression -- then how TD.7 has continued to remain a TD with a travel-speed more than 1&1/2 times greater than its spin -- ya really haven't a clue as to how 2012's HurricaneSeason is operating... or as to when TD.7 is gonna die. I certainly don't...
...and strongly suspect that even the best of the experts are gnashing their teeth and scratching their heads over what's become commonplace this year: "absurd" TropicalCyclones in the Atlantic.

* MaximumSustainedWinds minus travel-speed

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
first.vis.of.td7..theyll.find.something
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Quoting allancalderini:
Agree. do you think it has a chance to become Gordon before it dissipates entering the Caribbean?


Ehh it could possibly still become a tropical storm very briefly but it would have to do it extremely quickly because by tonight it will be encountering the much higher wind shear brought about by the mid oceanic trough. When RECON arrives into the storm in an hour and a half we are going to find out what kind of winds are around near the surface and whether there is still a closed circulation.

If I'm pushed one way or another, I'd say it won't become Gordon before degenerating. But you never know, the HH plane could fly in there and find 35 kt winds already present.
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Quoting islander101010:
td7..run.that.fast?...no
93.is.interesting
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td7..run.that.fast?...no
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Quoting atmosweather:


Honestly it never had much of a chance from the start. As soon as I saw the first NHC intensity forecast expecting slow strengthening I thought that can't be right. Then as the global models analyzed the conditions further and continued to indicate dissipation down the road they adjusted accordingly. Even without the 10-15 kts of shear and stable atmosphere, the forward speed is just too fast. I still believe, though, that if it can hold together its mid level energy and retain an area of low pressure at the surface then it will be able to develop after it passes through the E-ern and Cent. Caribbean.
Agree. do you think it has a chance to become Gordon before it dissipates entering the Caribbean?
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.....and the Thunder Rolls! Waking up early this Saturday to continuous thunder and a constantly flashing sky. Light rain and much cooler temperatures have also arrived here in Northwest Florida.
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Quoting atmosweather:


Honestly it never had much of a chance from the start. As soon as I saw the first NHC intensity forecast expecting slow strengthening I thought that can't be right. Then as the global models analyzed the conditions further and continued to indicate dissipation down the road they adjusted accordingly. Even without the 10-15 kts of shear and stable atmosphere, the forward speed is just too fast. I still believe, though, that if it can hold together its mid level energy and retain an area of low pressure at the surface then it will be able to develop after it passes through the E-ern and Cent. Caribbean.


yup the forward speed didn't help Ernesto either. That hit me immed when I noticed the clip this thing was moving at. That constant battle of outrunning your convection doesn't bode well for storm formation.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


that will be true!! conditions are just not good at all from the sounds of it.


Honestly it never had much of a chance from the start. As soon as I saw the first NHC intensity forecast expecting slow strengthening I thought that can't be right. Then as the global models analyzed the conditions further and continued to indicate dissipation down the road they adjusted accordingly. Even without the 10-15 kts of shear and stable atmosphere, the forward speed is just too fast. I still believe, though, that if it can hold together its mid level energy and retain an area of low pressure at the surface then it will be able to develop after it passes through the E-ern and Cent. Caribbean.
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1353. LargoFl
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1352. LargoFl
................................................. ..good morning folks, just walked the dogs,skies look pretty clear this morning,supposedly only a 40% rain chance today..we'll see how that goes later on..have a great day everyone
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1351. LargoFl
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Quoting allancalderini:
Wunderkidcayman would be in absolute denial XD.


that will be true!! conditions are just not good at all from the sounds of it.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


RIP very shortly for TD7. Someone isn't going to be very happy
Wunderkidcayman would be in absolute denial XD.
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 110833
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS
UNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A
30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A RAPID 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED
BY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION NEAR THE
48 HR POINT.


GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


RIP very shortly for TD7. Someone isn't going to be very happy
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 11August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure remained 1009millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 272.9*West@24.7mph(39.7km/h) to 273.2*West@22.4mph(36.1km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: GND-Grenada :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia

The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where 92L-AL07 became TD.7
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
10August6amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over HighCliffPoint ~LakeAntoine (topGNDdumbbell)
10August12pmGMT: 10August12pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over LittleBay,St.Lucy (topBGIblob)
10August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over LinnisPoint ~Dennery(town) (bottomSLUdumbbell)
11August12amGMT: TD.7 had been for passage over TortuePoint,GrandAnseBeach (middleSLUblob)
11August6amGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over GaletBay ~CottonBayVillage in ~15&1/2.hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pos-10.595n61.023w, bgi-13.09n59.457w, 13.198n59.488w-13.31n59.579w, gnd-12.191n61.602w, 13.89n60.883w-slu-13.99n60.883w, axa, 13.7n42.9w-13.7n44.6w, 13.7n44.6w-13.6n46.3w, 13.6n46.3w-13.6n48.6w, 13.6n48.6w-13.7n50.9w, 13.7n50.9w-13.8n53.1w, 13.8n53.1w-13.9n55.1w, 13.8n53.1w-14.101n60.918w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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1345. pcola57


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE LIFTS NWD DURING SAT AS
STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFT NWD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES. AN IMPULSE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE SWRN U.S.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE NWD WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TO JUST INLAND FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NERN US COAST. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD ACROSS THE SE
STATES AND INTO TX...AND BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
LATE IN THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS SAT.

...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AREA...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SAT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC NWD...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STG WIND
GUSTS.

...SERN U.S. WWD THROUGH GULF COAST/ERN TX...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS MORE SUBTLE THAN FARTHER NORTH THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS GREATER AND THE LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION MARK
BEING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SAT AFTN/EVENING. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS AFTN MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH WESTERLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 KTS. THIS REGION IS ON THE FRINGE OF AN
EML...WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT ANY TSTM THAT FORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA...THEN
HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES WOULD BE WARRANTED.

...COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AREA OF AZ/CA...
INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
TSTMS SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..BUNTING/HURLBUT.. 08/11/2012

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather