Tropical Storm Helene arrives; 94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

After a long path across the Atlantic that mirrored the track of Hurricane Ernesto, Tropical Depression Seven finally got its act together enough over the Bay of Campeche tropical storm breeding grounds to earn the name Helene. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's eighth storm. Most of this year's storms have been weak, though, so the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 21 is not that much higher than the normal year-to-date ACE of 15, based on a 1981 - 2010 ACE climatology. The normal yearly ACE for the Atlantic is 104. Helene doesn't have much room to work with before landfall, but has the potential to be a prodigious rainmaker for Mexico, with NHC predicting 5 - 10 inches for portions of Northeast Mexico. This part of the coast is not in drought, so will be prone to heavy flooding. Fortunately, Ernesto's main rains fell to the south of where Helene's rains are falling. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, though we can't rule out a few thunderstorms bringing 1 - 2 inches of rain to extreme South Texas on Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Helene.

94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been impressed this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are divided on how far west 94L will make it before curving more to the northwest. The ECMWF model keeps 94L weak for the next 5 - 6 days, and has progressively been bringing the storm closer to the Lesser Antilles Islands with each successive run. The ECMWF predicts 94L will pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles August 24 - 25 as a weak tropical storm. The 12Z GFS model predicted recurvature of 94L well to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, but the latest 18Z run has the storm plowing through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, August 23, as a strong tropical storm, then becoming a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Given that our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks are increasingly showing a threat to the Lesser Antilles, residents of the islands should pay close attention to the progress of 94L. The eventual track of 94L will depend on the strength of the storm over the next seven days, which is difficult to forecast, since 94L will have the usual trouble with dry air to the north from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL.) With the models changing their tune drastically from run to run, its tough to say what land areas might be most at risk from the storm in the long term. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1126. gugi182
Same stores you will find in the United States you will see them also exactly the same here in Puerto Rico we even have a subway also. Looks like the one's in New York City. Going to read a book on my ipad2 later my PR people.
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1125. gugi182
Gas is by liters here in Puerto Rico. It's 94.7 liter right now.
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here is another possibility based on the recent GFS model runs.
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Quoting stormchaser19:

So bad!!for any country imagine Haiti..... thousands of people lives outdoor


That is an excellent consideration... Here most of us have everything.... lots of materialism... Cement houses, cars, cable TV, WiFi, tablets, computers, name it.....

In Haiti, they are still trying to cope with the earthquake consequences...

We really have more than we need....
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Well,going to bed... But look at the new size of the forecast.... and look at the size of the wave.... We'll see tomorrow.... Up to now, looks like freaking serious event...


here is another possibility based on the recent GFS model runs.
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1121. gugi182
Amigos de Puerto & Republica Dominicana tenemos que estar bien atentos a este sistema que se avecian segun los modelos hacia el area del caribe. Dios quiera que no pero estaba verificando en wright weather y le di una revision a los wind speeds y me indicaba que estaria cerca de cualquiera de las dos islas con vientos entre los 75 a 105mph. This message goes out to the fellow bloggers here in Puerto Rico. mas o menos para este proximo viernes de la semana que viene. Well i guess i will have to put my storm shutters here in Puerto Rico cuz the models are shifting this system due west. It's too early to tell but i just have a strange feeling. I still remember Georges back in 98 when it hit PR.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


La perdida de familiares.... casas sin techo... con tolditos FEMA... estar sin luz y El precio de la luz... la perdida de trabajos... negocios propios se caen... las filas de gasolinera y para buscar hielo... el ruido de las plantas electricas y el olor a gasolina y diesel...


Tienes toda la razon, lo de la gasolina es algo minimo. En el area donde yo vivo, es alto y el agua es por bomba. Casi siempre llega 2 dias despues de la luz. Pero lo mas que importa es la vida humana.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


La perdida de familiares.... casas sin techo... con tolditos FEMA... estar sin luz y El precio de la luz... la perdida de trabajos... negocios propios se caen... las filas de gasolinera y para buscar hielo... el ruido de las plantas electricas y el olor a gasolina y diesel...

So bad!!for any country imagine Haiti..... thousands of people lives outdoor
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Yes, you do. It's called google translate.
Or, you don't have to read it. It's not their job to entertain you.




nevermind it ain't worth it.
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1117. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


La perdida de familiares.... casas sin techo... con tolditos FEMA... estar sin luz y El precio de la luz... la perdida de trabajos... negocios propios se caen... las filas de gasolinera y para buscar hielo... el ruido de las plantas electricas y el olor a gasolina y diesel...


Shhh!

If I have to live that trauma I would prefer to deal with it when it arrives, don't depress me a week before. :\
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Quoting PRweatherWatcher10:


Sorry, I just said that I don't want to see the price of gas in PR if that system comes our way.


LOL. Yeah I picked up a little bit of it. I understood "gasolina" "por" and "aqui". My Spanish is very limited. I do know...... Una mas cerveza's por favor.... Is that right? lol.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, you guys better get your Spanish-English dictionaries, expect a lot Spanish while 94L is pointing towards PR and the DR.

XD

It will help Cody with spanish also.
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Quoting PRweatherWatcher10:


No quiero ver precio de la gasolina si ese sistema pasa por aqui!


La perdida de familiares.... casas sin techo... con tolditos FEMA... estar sin luz y El precio de la luz... la perdida de trabajos... negocios propios se caen... las filas de gasolinera y para buscar hielo... el ruido de las plantas electricas y el olor a gasolina y diesel...


the loss of family, houses, roofs, no electricity and inflated price, job loss, no gasoline and the sound of electic plants during the night with the gas and diesel fumes....
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, you guys better get your Spanish-English dictionaries, expect a lot Spanish while 94L is pointing towards PR and DR.
Posiblemente ;)
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Yes, you do. It's called google translate.
Or, you don't have to read it. It's not their job to entertain you.

Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Do I have to press 1 for English?
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1111. JLPR2
Well now, you guys better get your Spanish-English dictionaries, expect a lot Spanish while 94L is pointing towards PR and the DR.

XD

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1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE (94L) LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Do I have to press 1 for English?


Sorry, I just said that I don't want to see the price of gas in PR if that system comes our way.
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1108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good night everyone iam out be back by the start of the 12z run tomorrow
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Do I have to press 1 for English?
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13 Maria September 2, 2005 Lee September 2, 2011
14 Nate September 5, 2005 Maria September 7, 2011
15 Ophelia September 7, 2005 Nate September 7, 2011
16 Philippe September 17, 2005 Ophelia September 21, 2011
17 Rita September 18, 2005 Philippe September 24, 2011

Interesting stuff (from Wikipedia)

Also, I found out Hurricane 8 of 1936 formed before the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane (eighth storm), therefore Helene ties 1933 for third earliest eighth storm.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Tenemos que estar bien atentos, pues luce como un sistema grande que puede afectar tanto a las islas de Sotavento como a nosotros (PR y RD)... y las cosas estan malas como pa coger ese fuetazo...


No quiero ver precio de la gasolina si ese sistema pasa por aqui!
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1103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
.
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1102. zillaTX
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well they do have to update on 2 systems.


.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...DISORGANIZED HELENE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. HELENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HELENE WILL MOVE INLAND IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE HELENE MAKES
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS STATES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
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The latest scoop on Gordon and Helene hot off the press.

...DISORGANIZED HELENE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
1:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 18
Location: 21.2°N 96.4°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

...GORDON MOVING EASTWARD AT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 18
Location: 34.0°N 41.5°W
Moving: E at 17 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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1099. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180552
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


DOOM! XD
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code orange!
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Quoting Gearsts:
Aguadilla Puerto Rico


OK
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 180552
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HELENE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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1095. Gearsts
Quoting stormchaser19:


sory for the CAPS lol
where are you from?
De donde eres?
Aguadilla Puerto Rico
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Tenemos que estar bien atentos, pues luce como un sistema grande que puede afectar tanto a las islas de Sotavento como a nosotros (PR y RD)... y las cosas estan malas como pa coger ese fuetazo...


Ya lo sabe,si recurva mas a el oeste es malo por va a terminar con los pobres haitianos y si no nos da ustede en puerto rico y a nosotros aqui en RD
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
NHC as been taking foreverrrrrr with these updates lately


Well they do have to update on 2 systems.
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Well,going to bed... But look at the new size of the forecast.... and look at the size of the wave.... We'll see tomorrow.... Up to now, looks like freaking serious event...

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NHC as been taking foreverrrrrr with these updates lately
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1090. geepy86
yeah the spanish is so 2008
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Quoting Gearsts:
Why the all caps?


sory for the CAPS lol
where are you from?
De donde eres?
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Euro initialization begin:

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Quoting stormchaser19:


........Soy DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y ESTOY ATENTO CUALQUIER COSA


Tenemos que estar bien atentos, pues luce como un sistema grande que puede afectar tanto a las islas de Sotavento como a nosotros (PR y RD)... y las cosas estan malas como pa coger ese fuetazo...
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ECMWF Starting
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1084. JLPR2
Quoting stormchaser19:


LO VOY A DECIR EN ESPANOL,POR QUE VEO QUE SON BORICUAS.
MALO O BUENO LA TIERRA NECESITA DE LOS HURACANES PARA SOBREVIVIR ES IGUAL QUE LOS TERREMOTOS Y LOS TORNADOS ECT. AUNQUE SEAN MALOS ES NECESARIO, CUANDO TU Y YO NACIMOS LOS HURACANES YA EXISTIAN, SI ESTOS FENOMENOS NATURALES NO OCURREN LA TIERRA LUCIRIA COMO MARTE POR EJEMPLO.........LO UNICO QUE PODEMOS HACER ES ESTAR ALERTAS Y MATENERNOS A SALVO........Soy DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y ESTOY ATENTO CUALQUIER COSA



Muy bien dicho.
Y eso que es raro que yo hable en español aquí, pero como ya es tarde, eh, ¿qué mal o confusión puede causar? :)

For anyone that doesn't speak Spanish, just said that I rarely speak Spanish here.
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Quoting gustavcane:
Looks like 94L could take a path like hurricane Ivan if that ridge to the north slams the door in its face.
It'll probably be drawn northward into the southwestern Atlantic rather than cruising the whole length of the Caribbean.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Come on people we don`t need to find we should all be friends that talk about weather that is our passion that is why we are all here and to increase our knowledge.


no ones fighting anymore :p
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Come on people we don`t need to find we should all be friends that talk about weather that is our passion that is why we are all here and to increase our knowledge.
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1079. geepy86
awww Groth I remember...
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1078. Gearsts
Quoting stormchaser19:


LO VOY A DECIR EN ESPANOL,POR QUE VEO QUE SON BORICUAS.
MALO O BUENO LA TIERRA NECESITA DE LOS HURACANES PARA SOBREVIVIR ES IGUAL QUE LOS TERREMOTOS Y LOS TORNADOS ECT. AUNQUE SEAN MALOS ES NECESARIO, CUANDO TU Y YO NACIMOS LOS HURACANES YA EXISTIAN, SI ESTOS FENOMENOS NATURALES NO OCURREN LA TIERRA LUCIRIA COMO MARTE POR EJEMPLO.........LO UNICO QUE PODEMOS HACER ES ESTAR ALERTAS Y MATENERNOS A SALVO........Soy DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y ESTOY ATENTO CUALQUIER COSA
Why the all caps?
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Quoting gustavcane:
Here is another possible path 94L could take based on the recent GFS Model runs.


I hope it isn't intensity wise.
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Quoting JLPR2:


I got the idea, but I wasn't able to link it to an image of a year old model run. Anyways I broke the link to it, don't want to exceed my bandwidth in Photobucket. :P


Ahh,perdona que usara un link tuyo... para efectos de explicar la idea podia ser cualquier link de un modelo meteorologico...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather