Tropical Storm Helene arrives; 94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

After a long path across the Atlantic that mirrored the track of Hurricane Ernesto, Tropical Depression Seven finally got its act together enough over the Bay of Campeche tropical storm breeding grounds to earn the name Helene. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's eighth storm. Most of this year's storms have been weak, though, so the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 21 is not that much higher than the normal year-to-date ACE of 15, based on a 1981 - 2010 ACE climatology. The normal yearly ACE for the Atlantic is 104. Helene doesn't have much room to work with before landfall, but has the potential to be a prodigious rainmaker for Mexico, with NHC predicting 5 - 10 inches for portions of Northeast Mexico. This part of the coast is not in drought, so will be prone to heavy flooding. Fortunately, Ernesto's main rains fell to the south of where Helene's rains are falling. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, though we can't rule out a few thunderstorms bringing 1 - 2 inches of rain to extreme South Texas on Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Helene.

94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been impressed this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are divided on how far west 94L will make it before curving more to the northwest. The ECMWF model keeps 94L weak for the next 5 - 6 days, and has progressively been bringing the storm closer to the Lesser Antilles Islands with each successive run. The ECMWF predicts 94L will pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles August 24 - 25 as a weak tropical storm. The 12Z GFS model predicted recurvature of 94L well to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, but the latest 18Z run has the storm plowing through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, August 23, as a strong tropical storm, then becoming a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Given that our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks are increasingly showing a threat to the Lesser Antilles, residents of the islands should pay close attention to the progress of 94L. The eventual track of 94L will depend on the strength of the storm over the next seven days, which is difficult to forecast, since 94L will have the usual trouble with dry air to the north from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL.) With the models changing their tune drastically from run to run, its tough to say what land areas might be most at risk from the storm in the long term. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting JLPR2:


I got the idea, but I wasn't able to link it to an image of a year old model run. Anyways I broke the link to it, don't want to exceed my bandwidth in Photobucket. :P


Ahh,perdona que usara un link tuyo... para efectos de explicar la idea podia ser cualquier link de un modelo meteorologico...
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Quoting Gearsts:
Cualquier cosa puedes mandar un mensaje en spanish ;)


LO VOY A DECIR EN ESPANOL,POR QUE VEO QUE SON BORICUAS.
MALO O BUENO LA TIERRA NECESITA DE LOS HURACANES PARA SOBREVIVIR ES IGUAL QUE LOS TERREMOTOS Y LOS TORNADOS ECT. AUNQUE SEAN MALOS ES NECESARIO, CUANDO TU Y YO NACIMOS LOS HURACANES YA EXISTIAN, SI ESTOS FENOMENOS NATURALES NO OCURREN LA TIERRA LUCIRIA COMO MARTE POR EJEMPLO.........LO UNICO QUE PODEMOS HACER ES ESTAR ALERTAS Y MATENERNOS A SALVO........Soy DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y ESTOY ATENTO CUALQUIER COSA
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Seems that Puerto Rico is not in a good shape with this one...;plus a double hit scenario, like we had in 1979 with David and Frederick.... not a good year for us..
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Quoting JLPR2:


I got the idea, but I wasn't able to link it to an image of a year old model run. Anyways I broke the link to it, don't want to exceed my bandwidth in Photobucket. :P


The thing is that we would classify someone here as a Wishcaster if he would say something like:

That will turn into a Cat. 4 hurricane and hit Guadalupe, then PR, cross to RD, passing the Bahamas then Fl and into the GOM.... Finally it will turn again into a cat 4 and end in NOLA....

And that is just what models do...
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1072. Gearsts
Quoting Grothar:


Gearsts, hablas espanol?
lol shh don't tell anyone.
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Here is another possible path 94L could take based on the recent GFS Model runs.
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>Quoting Grothar:
It looks like it wants to spin up Helene again as well. Just like I wrote before. I should put this in my blog because no one will remember it.

Im gonna remember Gro cause i feel the same way...we havent seen the last of Helene and i think the NHC dont think so either that track is a copout and it just leaves them a way out of a jam imo!
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1069. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
647

WHXX01 KWBC 180349

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0349 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120818 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 0000 120818 1200 120819 0000 120819 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.1N 25.5W 11.5N 27.5W 12.2N 29.2W 12.8N 31.5W

BAMD 11.1N 25.5W 11.4N 28.1W 11.9N 30.3W 12.4N 32.5W

BAMM 11.1N 25.5W 11.6N 28.3W 12.3N 30.6W 12.9N 33.0W

LBAR 11.1N 25.5W 11.4N 28.8W 11.9N 32.3W 12.3N 35.8W

SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS

DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 0000 120821 0000 120822 0000 120823 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.4N 34.2W 14.7N 42.3W 15.1N 51.8W 13.4N 60.4W

BAMD 13.0N 34.7W 14.4N 39.8W 15.6N 45.2W 16.8N 49.6W

BAMM 13.5N 35.6W 14.7N 42.4W 15.2N 50.4W 14.7N 58.6W

LBAR 12.8N 39.3W 13.5N 46.3W 13.2N 51.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 51KTS 66KTS 82KTS 100KTS

DSHP 51KTS 66KTS 82KTS 100KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 25.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 22.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 17.3W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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yo hablo espanol...hola..tengo miedo de huracanes grandes!
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1066. Grothar
Quoting Gearsts:
Cualquier cosa puedes mandar un mensaje en spanish ;)


Gearsts, hablas espanol?
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1065. Grothar
It looks like it wants to spin up Helene again as well. Just like I wrote before. I should put this in my blog because no one will remember it. :)

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1064. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Seems like I didn't express well my idea....

Es que pienso en Espanol....


I got the idea, but I wasn't able to link it to an image of a year old model run. Anyways I broke the link to it, don't want to exceed my bandwidth in Photobucket. :P
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1063. Gearsts
Quoting sunlinepr:


Seems like I didn't express well my idea....

Es que pienso en Espanol....
Cualquier cosa puedes mandar un mensaje en spanish ;)
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1062. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:
Gordon's getting a little angry about the little to no attention he's getting.

Firing up some colder cloud tops and has gotten better organized. I don't know, but folks we may see this make a run at hurricane status at 5 am.



Yay! :P
I'm rooting for you Gordon!
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Quoting JLPR2:


You better start by fixing that link.


Seems like I didn't express well my idea....

Es que pienso en Espanol....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


If that scenario from GFS gets to be real next Friday / Sat. most probably you will have destruction and death in the islands...

We plot these models but we never classify them as Wishcasters...

So why blame us and fight between us...??

What we have to remember to is that the GFS typically analyzes the Pressures too high, like for example last night it had a 1009 mb. pressure for Gordon when it was down to 993 mb. or something like that. The HWRF model for intensity will really give us an idea of what beast we will be dealing with and I don't think it is going to be pretty. Remember the wave heights you and me posted that should give us an idea of what to expect which is a large Cape-Verde Hurricane.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Gordon's getting a little angry about the little to no attention he's getting.

Firing up some colder cloud tops and has gotten better organized. I don't know, but folks we may see this make a run at hurricane status at 5 am.

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1058. Gearsts
Quoting sunlinepr:
What I meant to say is that If that scenario from GFS gets to be real next Friday / Sat. most probably you will have destruction and death in the islands...

We plot these models but we never classify them as Wishcasters... they are just Met. models...

So why blame us and fight between us...?? We are just getting to posible conclusions by examining these models...


I know but sometimes people just have a bad day and stuff happens if you know what i mean.
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What I meant to say is that If that scenario from GFS gets to be real next Friday / Sat. most probably you will have destruction and death in the islands...

We plot these models but we never classify them as Wishcasters... they are just Met. models...

So why blame us and fight between us...?? We are just getting to posible conclusions by examining these models... and we don't get exited... We get worried...


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Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC, 94L farther north and HELENE IN THE GULF

Tropical Storm Helene in western central gulf could mean this with her under that 85F to 87F Rocket Fuel water in that area.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Serve it with some Merlot or Cabernet...


Pinot noir...
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1053. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words, probably too kind (about me anyway, not Levi). But I think I've reached the breaking point tonight. Most probably have me on ignore anyway now. It's been real.


Come on, look on the bright side. At least no one called you a doofus. Everyone is entitled to one faux pas. Mrs. Grothar told me the only time I open my mouth is to change feet.
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1052. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
once TWO comes out iam going to bed getting tired here
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1050. JLPR2
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Sure thing here is:

CONUS VIEW: LINK
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1048. Grothar
Even though some models show a strong high, there are sometimes weakness we do not see and the steering currents can change. Also, look at the deepening trough coming down over the US. It looks very powerful.


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1047. Gearsts
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
00Z FIM Running!!
Can i have the link to that?
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00Z FIM
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone want some cheese?


Serve it with some Merlot or Cabernet...
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1044. Gearsts
Quoting sunlinepr:
This guy is one of the BIG WISHCASTERS of the blog... and I've found him....

What he is presenting us is total destruction of various islands... the posible death of people..., loss of employment, material damage

Not only that, he is telling us when...

He should be banned....

Link



???
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CMC, 94L farther north and HELENE IN THE GULF
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like 94L could take a path like hurricane Ivan if that ridge to the north slams the door in its face.
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1041. Grothar
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Do you think it's because the models are catching on to a stronger or further west Bermuda high?


I think the models have discarded the possibility of the interaction with the other low which would have placed 94L in a position to move into the weakness in the high. They are still there, so they will probably flip back and forth. But all indications are that most models are moving more to the west. The FIM still has a strong NW curve. But the new models are not out yet
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00Z FIM Running!!
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Quoting Thrawst:


Pass that bad boy over!


bahaha, ohhh god this blog. Can make me so angry then make me laugh. :)
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This guy is one of the BIG WISHCASTERS of the blog... and I've found him....

What he is presenting us is total destruction of various islands... the posible death of people..., loss of employment, material damage

Not only that, he is telling us when...

He should be banned....

Link



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1037. JLPR2
By the way, 94L is entering the CAtl view, we should be getting a floater sometime tomorrow.

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1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words, probably too kind (about me anyway, not Levi). But I think I've reached the breaking point tonight. Most probably have me on ignore anyway now. It's been real.


we all have our days
maybe ya should of used a different approach
i won't hold it against ya
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1035. Thrawst
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone want some cheese?


Pass that bad boy over!
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1034. Gearsts
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words, probably too kind (about me anyway, not Levi). But I think I've reached the breaking point tonight. Most probably have me on ignore anyway now. It's been real.
I have alot of respect for you dude so don't take anything here serious and hope you feel better tomorrow.
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1033. Thrawst
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words, probably too kind (about me anyway, not Levi). But I think I've reached the breaking point tonight. Most probably have me on ignore anyway now. It's been real.


Whatever you do... don't leave the blog. I love your explanations.
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1032. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words, probably too kind (about me anyway, not Levi). But I think I've reached the breaking point tonight. Most probably have me on ignore anyway now. It's been real.


Nah, you could easily be forgiven, one comment coming out wrong shouldn't be a reason for people to collectively ignore you.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Ok

This is what I'm gonna do....

I'm going to put my antennas in the backyard on... And you people on the islands, do the same pleas. Maybe we can make 94L vanish away....

My backyard....



The HAARP LOL
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Interesting the BAMD predicts 94L go due "south" at the end of the forecast run.
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Quoting Grothar:


I would not be surprised if the models began shifting more west on tomorrows run. Early indications are pointing to that.


Do you think it's because the models are catching on to a stronger or further west Bermuda high?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words, probably too kind (about me anyway, not Levi). But I think I've reached the breaking point tonight. Most probably have me on ignore anyway now. It's been real.


Nah... no sugarcoating there ;).
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1027. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


I would not be surprised if the models began shifting more west on tomorrows run. Early indications are pointing to that.



gonna ba alot of moving around
for the next 48 to 72 hrs
worth of models
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Quoting Gearsts:
Ignored my comments if you want then.


I am just saying based off of the mistakes I have learned from...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather