Tropical Storm Helene arrives; 94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:41 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

After a long path across the Atlantic that mirrored the track of Hurricane Ernesto, Tropical Depression Seven finally got its act together enough over the Bay of Campeche tropical storm breeding grounds to earn the name Helene. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's eighth storm. Most of this year's storms have been weak, though, so the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 21 is not that much higher than the normal year-to-date ACE of 15, based on a 1981 - 2010 ACE climatology. The normal yearly ACE for the Atlantic is 104. Helene doesn't have much room to work with before landfall, but has the potential to be a prodigious rainmaker for Mexico, with NHC predicting 5 - 10 inches for portions of Northeast Mexico. This part of the coast is not in drought, so will be prone to heavy flooding. Fortunately, Ernesto's main rains fell to the south of where Helene's rains are falling. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, though we can't rule out a few thunderstorms bringing 1 - 2 inches of rain to extreme South Texas on Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Helene.

94L a potential threat to the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been impressed this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are divided on how far west 94L will make it before curving more to the northwest. The ECMWF model keeps 94L weak for the next 5 - 6 days, and has progressively been bringing the storm closer to the Lesser Antilles Islands with each successive run. The ECMWF predicts 94L will pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles August 24 - 25 as a weak tropical storm. The 12Z GFS model predicted recurvature of 94L well to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, but the latest 18Z run has the storm plowing through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, August 23, as a strong tropical storm, then becoming a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean. Given that our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks are increasingly showing a threat to the Lesser Antilles, residents of the islands should pay close attention to the progress of 94L. The eventual track of 94L will depend on the strength of the storm over the next seven days, which is difficult to forecast, since 94L will have the usual trouble with dry air to the north from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL.) With the models changing their tune drastically from run to run, its tough to say what land areas might be most at risk from the storm in the long term. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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326. etxwx
Good news from Hong Kong but apparently there are no international boundaries on wishcasting...note bolded line.

Typhoon Kai Tak lightly brushes city over night
China Daily Updated: 2012-08-18 06:34

Excerpt: Typhoon Kai-Tak brushed by Hong Kong giving the city barely a nudge on Thursday night and Friday morning. The Hong Kong Observatory replaced the No 8 Southeast Storm Signal, issued at 10:15 pm on Thursday, with a No 3 Strong Wind Signal at 6:20 am on Friday morning. The typhoon disrupted public transportation services in the New Territories.

Major bus company operators Citybus & New World First Bus cancelled their services at about 1 am on Friday. However, by 5 am, they announced five special routes to the airport were open and other routes began operations from 6:30 am. Ferry service between Hong Kong and Macao, which was halted after the No 8 signal was issued, also resumed service at about 6:30 am. The MTR resumed normal operations. Other public transport gradually resumed normal.

Many employees woke up this morning disappointed as they found Typhoon Kai Tak moving away from Hong Kong faster than expected. Some of them had to hurry to get to work on time.

There were six reports of tree damage but none of flooding or landslides.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Could Helene heve made landfall?
If not, then she is REALLY disorganized.


she is falling into pieces.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



if it gos too TX it will go POOF like DON did

No it wont...there isn't that death ridge like don did lol
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Quoting seer2012:
Yea...once in a blue moon!
As far as another blue moon such as this, the last time I can figure is August 31, 1821.
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Somebody, delete/edit your post. The blog is screwed.

"use modify" and fix that please.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Two members like NOLA, so we got an "upgrade" from the previous run where just one member did that...

Does Helene want to play?
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318. JLPR2
Quoting gugi182:


I see this will be close to Puerto Rico by next week.


Lets wait and see if at 00z the track holds or goes back to the way it was at 12z.

Still, if the 18z does materialize and I'm meaning the "I" storm entering the Caribbean, then it will most likely be remembered and possibly retired. Then it also shows the "J", "K" and the "L" right at the end of the run.
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94L will be the big daddy as all those other storms that formed before 94L where the soldiers running around having one big party.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
GFS likes Corpus.




I think most people in Texas would celebrate if that track was to verify.
I would celebrate with Texas.
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Two members like NOLA, so we got an "upgrade" from the previous run where just one member did that...

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Quoting RTSplayer:
GFS likes Corpus.




I think most people in Texas would celebrate if that track was to verify.



if it gos too TX it will go POOF like DON did
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HadesGodWyvern, you stretched the blog. Please modify your post.
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GFS likes Corpus.




I think most people in Texas would celebrate if that track was to verify.
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Quoting gugi182:


I see this will be close to Puerto Rico by next week.
we got a few runs to go before we know for sure
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309. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


2012AUG17 231500 1.3 1012.8/ 0.0 / 25.0 1.3 1.5 2.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF CRVBND
2012AUG17 234500 1.3 1012.8/ 0.0 / 25.0 1.3 1.5 2.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF CRVBND
2012AUG18 001500 1.4 1012.4/ 0.0 / 25.0 1.4 1.7 2.7 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF CRVBND




No indication of a landfall from the Advance Dvorak Technique website for TC Helene
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
It just needs convection geez...I told you naked swirls are worser!!


...or as the islanders here say "worserer...."

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Totally agree with you. I had many of sleepless nights waiting for the new model runs, TWO's and storm updates. I wonder what this blog would be like if we had Charlie, Francis, Jeanne, and Ivan all heading for Florida.
Pandemonium mixed with controled chaos!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I see this will be close to Puerto Rico by next week.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Even though we aren't in an El Niño yet, we are already experiencing Niño-like conditions in the Atlantic.

...

In other words, what Cody said.
Kinda like having a named storm in May or December..Its not hurricane season but its there.....I guess..
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Could Helene heve made landfall?
If not, then she is REALLY disorganized.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
While I agree that Helene will make a comeback overnight, the current hurricane specialist unit definitely seems more liberal in regards to naming things than the previous such crew. I doubt Pelissier, Lawrence, Hope, or hell, even some of the veterans that were around in the 80s, like Pasch or Avila, would have given Helene a name this afternoon.

Proximity to nuclear power plants and offshore oil wells require that... intra-company procedures can't proceed without some identified, named risk other than 'gross hot mess'.
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I personally think Helene was a storm before the HH got in there and investigated...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I like being abnormal. The reactions you get from some people is priceless. It's my way of saying...

lololo
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Quoting KoritheMan:
While I agree that Helene will make a comeback overnight, the current hurricane specialist unit definitely seems more liberal in regards to naming things than the previous such crew. I doubt Pelissier, Lawrence, Hope, or hell, even some of the veterans that were around in the 80s, like Pasch or Avila, would have given Helene a name this afternoon.

Uhm, why not?
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Quoting scott39:
2004 and 2005 were some of the best times tracking and chasing storms. No I dont like death and destruction....but that doesnt stop the adrenaline of a hurricane junkie like me.
i know. recent years there are way too many troughs and cape verde tracks are predicatble either they go out to sea or recurve into the east coast or bermuda. frances hugo and fran tracks are rare now
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Quoting JLPR2:


Nice, thank you! Didn't have to look for 94L's update myself.
I'm currently tracking it old style, with a printed map and a pencil. Reliving old times... :P
Good for you.
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025

WHXX01 KWBC 180039

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0039 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON (AL082012) 20120818 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 0000 120818 1200 120819 0000 120819 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.2N 43.1W 33.9N 40.2W 34.1N 37.1W 34.1N 33.8W

BAMD 34.2N 43.1W 33.9N 39.2W 34.3N 34.3W 35.5N 28.2W

BAMM 34.2N 43.1W 33.9N 39.7W 34.0N 35.7W 34.6N 30.9W

LBAR 34.2N 43.1W 33.9N 39.2W 34.2N 35.1W 35.1N 30.7W

SHIP 60KTS 64KTS 64KTS 63KTS

DSHP 60KTS 64KTS 64KTS 63KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 0000 120821 0000 120822 0000 120823 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.3N 30.3W 33.6N 25.1W 33.5N 22.3W 33.3N 20.3W

BAMD 38.0N 22.3W 45.7N 11.2W 54.1N 1.4E 59.4N 15.1E

BAMM 35.8N 26.4W 40.1N 18.1W 45.0N 8.0W 49.6N 3.1E

LBAR 37.2N 26.0W 44.1N 15.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 58KTS 43KTS 26KTS 15KTS

DSHP 58KTS 43KTS 26KTS 15KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.2N LONCUR = 43.1W DIRCUR = 95DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 34.4N LONM12 = 47.0W DIRM12 = 94DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 51.1W

WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT

CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 70NM



$$

NNNN
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294. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Gordon 5kts stronger.

AL, 08, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 342N, 431W, 60, 990, TS


Helene 5kts weaker.

AL, 07, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 208N, 961W, 35, 1006, TS


No change to 94L.

AL, 94, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 111N, 255W, 20, 1009, DB


Nice, thank you! Didn't have to look for 94L's update myself.
I'm currently tracking it old style, with a printed map and a pencil. Reliving old times... :P
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397

WHXX01 KWBC 180034

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0034 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE (AL072012) 20120818 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 0000 120818 1200 120819 0000 120819 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.8N 96.1W 21.8N 97.6W 22.8N 98.5W 23.8N 99.3W

BAMD 20.8N 96.1W 21.5N 97.2W 22.2N 97.9W 22.9N 98.4W

BAMM 20.8N 96.1W 21.7N 97.4W 22.5N 98.2W 23.3N 98.9W

LBAR 20.8N 96.1W 21.2N 97.2W 22.2N 98.3W 23.2N 99.2W

SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS

DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 35KTS 30KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 0000 120821 0000 120822 0000 120823 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.5N 99.9W 25.1N 101.3W 25.6N 103.1W 26.5N 105.3W

BAMD 23.4N 98.8W 23.8N 99.4W 23.7N 100.9W 23.6N 103.1W

BAMM 24.0N 99.3W 24.3N 100.1W 24.3N 101.8W 24.6N 103.9W

LBAR 24.4N 99.2W 27.7N 96.3W 31.6N 89.9W 36.4N 79.7W

SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 70KTS 67KTS

DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.8N LONCUR = 96.1W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 95.7W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 94.2W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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292. SLU
17/2345 UTC 34.2N 43.3W T3.0/3.0 GORDON -- Atlantic
17/2345 UTC 11.5N 25.2W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic
17/2315 UTC 20.7N 96.7W T1.0/1.5 HELENE -- Atlantic
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
291. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (T1213)
9:00 AM JST August 18 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (992 hPa) located at 21.7N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.9N 100.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China
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Quoting KoritheMan:


After you repeatedly told me to stop forecasting hurricanes to your area in the past, I find this statement surprising lol.
I tried to be "normal", but it just didnt work. Lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Probably busy hunting snakes again. Dude's got some balls.

Anyway, I checked the forecast, and it appears that you have a chance for thunderstorms during the overnight hours, mainly after 2 AM.



thanks for checking by the way he went too the old house for the weakend too fix it up
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Gordon 5kts stronger.

AL, 08, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 342N, 431W, 60, 990, TS


Helene 5kts weaker.

AL, 07, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 208N, 961W, 35, 1006, TS


No change to 94L.

AL, 94, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 111N, 255W, 20, 1009, DB
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Quoting scott39:
2004 and 2005 were some of the best times tracking and chasing storms. No I dont like death and destruction....but that doesnt stop the adrenaline of a hurricane junkie like me.


After you repeatedly told me to stop forecasting hurricanes to your area in the past, I find this statement surprising lol.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i would normly ask my friend tyler Young too check the hrr for me but he off for the weekend



hes a bad bad boy for takeing off for the weekend could have waited too at lest sat lol


Probably busy hunting snakes again. Dude's got some balls.

Anyway, I checked the forecast, and it appears that you have a chance for thunderstorms during the overnight hours, mainly after 2 AM.
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Hard to believe how concrete the NHC discussion was for Helenes path inland. I would think mentioning any possibility of NNE movement would at least give them an out.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Melting, Meeelllting...

Sea Ice Heads for Record Low

ahem.



DOOM

Probably the most significant line in the article is this:-
“Our greatest concern is that loss of Arctic sea ice creates a grave threat of passing two other tipping points -- the potential instability of the Greenland ice sheet and methane hydrates,”
I suppose the cry on this one must be:- Can some kind of Deity bale us out of this situation!
I think not.
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2004 and 2005 were some of the best times tracking and chasing storms. No I dont like death and destruction....but that doesnt stop the adrenaline of a hurricane junkie like me.
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i would normly ask my friend tyler Young too check the hrr for me but he off for the weekend



hes a bad bad boy for takeing off for the weekend could have waited too at lest sat lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No! You hurted my feelings!

*cries*
ah, sorry Kori.

I'm out for now. I'll be back late tonight to see what the 0z runs have for us.
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While I agree that Helene will make a comeback overnight, the current hurricane specialist unit definitely seems more liberal in regards to naming things than the previous such crew. I doubt Pelissier, Lawrence, Hope, or hell, even some of the veterans that were around in the 80s, like Pasch or Avila, would have given Helene a name this afternoon.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Where in north California, Taz?



hi can you check sonora CA
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather