About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.
Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.
Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.
Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
3413. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:13 AM GMT on August 22, 20123412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:13 AM GMT on August 22, 20123411. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:12 AM GMT on August 22, 20123410. SOHOGator
12:37 AM GMT on August 21, 20123409. kwgirl
5:19 PM GMT on August 20, 20123408. wunderkidcayman
4:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2012this was my forecast cone from late last night in colour
and this is mine now the cone has shifted abit N and has a more N track at the end of the run also extended for an extra 24 hours
(tracks on Jamaicas S coast and track NW between Grand Cayman and its sister islands then up into Cuba then towards Fl and turns back WNW towards NE GOM coast warning no colour
I don't have much confidence with this cone due to the fact that 94L is not offically TD9 yet I am waiting for advisory to come out and forecast cone given
3407. weatherh98
3:24 PM GMT on August 20, 20123406. bohonkweatherman
3:02 PM GMT on August 20, 20123405. opal92nwf
2:57 PM GMT on August 20, 20123404. NYX
2:56 PM GMT on August 20, 2012I love how nearly every model at some point or another has a storm going straight into Miami/Fort Lauderdale.
3403. CJ5
2:55 PM GMT on August 20, 2012PITTSBURGH (AP) - In a surprising turnaround, the amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere in the U.S. has fallen dramatically to its lowest level in 20 years, and government officials say the biggest reason is that cheap and plentiful natural gas has led many power plant operators to switch from dirtier-burning coal.
Many of the world’s leading climate scientists didn’t see the drop coming, in large part because it happened as a result of market forces rather than direct government action against carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.
Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said the shift away from coal is reason for "cautious optimism" about potential ways to deal with climate change. He said it demonstrates that "ultimately people follow their wallets" on global warming.
Link
3402. ProgressivePulse
2:54 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Could be a one, two punch for someone down the line.
3401. Waltanater
2:50 PM GMT on August 20, 20123400. NYX
2:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2012We get hit from every which direction. Wilma was southwest to northeast. Katrina was northeast to southwest. Andrew was straight east to west. Tropical storm Debbie this year I think went west to east across north Florida. Too many to even think about.
3399. Neapolitan
2:49 PM GMT on August 20, 20123398. AegirsGal
2:48 PM GMT on August 20, 20123397. GeoffreyWPB
2:46 PM GMT on August 20, 2012CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.
3396. RTSplayer
2:46 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Try this one.
I don't know if I'd call him a crank. He does real research and invention, trying to make EHD practical seems to be his personal hobby.
Check under "Food For Thought" and "EHD".
Blazelabs
He has well reasoned arguments which are hard to disagree with in principle, even though they are not all in agreement with mainstream theories, they nevertheless appear to be able to explain phenomena consistently while using some alternate theories and axioms in science.
It's sort of like "MOND" in that hes not discarding something just for the sake of it, but trying to tweak it to make it more accurate, or replace it with something more consistent.
3395. CJ5
2:46 PM GMT on August 20, 201294 is tracking pretty fast but has great spin, in relative low shear and good in good water temps. Nothing indicates it will die just yet. Models are not very good right now. We will have to wait until it becomes a TD/TS to start getting good reads.
96l is new and has many more days before it can be judged with any accuracy.
Just be patient and see how it all plays out.
3394. Neapolitan
2:44 PM GMT on August 20, 20123393. johnbluedog69
2:44 PM GMT on August 20, 20123392. Grothar
2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Who has the time?
3391. Waltanater
2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 20123389. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 20123388. CaribBoy
2:42 PM GMT on August 20, 201220/1145 UTC 15.7N 44.8W TOO WEAK 94L
20/0545 UTC 14.9N 42.1W TOO WEAK 94L
3386. Grothar
2:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2012How about these?
3385. ncstorm
2:41 PM GMT on August 20, 20123384. kshipre1
2:41 PM GMT on August 20, 20123382. STXHurricanes2012
2:41 PM GMT on August 20, 20123381. RTSplayer
2:40 PM GMT on August 20, 20123380. AtHomeInTX
2:40 PM GMT on August 20, 2012My favorite line from the movie is, "When?" lol
3379. Bluestorm5
2:40 PM GMT on August 20, 20123378. CaribBoy
2:39 PM GMT on August 20, 20123377. CaribBoy
2:38 PM GMT on August 20, 20123376. Bluestorm5
2:38 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Also, how strong is this typhoon?
3375. Grothar
2:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Too early in the day for "Blazing Saddles". :)
3374. Neapolitan
2:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2012spentwasted five minutes on that guy's site. It appears that in addition to singlehandedly doing away with an entire branch of phsyics by proving Einstein wrong, he's also demonstrated conclusively that crop circles are not a hoax, that the distance of the planets from the sun is dictated solely by the chemical composition of their individual atmospheres, and that ancient Mayans invented both interplanetary and interstellar space travel.Yowza...
You know, if this is the kind of nonsense some people deem credible, it's small wonder they have no grasp on climate science...
3373. CaribBoy
2:36 PM GMT on August 20, 20123372. Grothar
2:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2012I believe this model shows a strong trough moving the system to the North.
This model, the FIM7, shows the turn coming a little later.
3371. AtHomeInTX
2:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2012I think a look at MSLP patterns might provide some interesting answers to this. I don't think we see a bridging high that lasts long enough to cover the "gap" over the eastern half of the CONUS... Storms coming out of the Caribbean that also hit TX tend to already be far enough West to begin with, IIRC...
Yes we get a lot of them that originate west or south of FL. But the ones that miss FL and hit TX all say something about rounding the edge of a deep layered high over the SE.
3370. Bluestorm5
2:34 PM GMT on August 20, 20123368. gugi182
2:33 PM GMT on August 20, 20123367. sar2401
2:33 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Especially for a model run that's over 24 hours old. :)
3365. ReservoirSimGuy
2:32 PM GMT on August 20, 20123364. zoomiami
2:32 PM GMT on August 20, 2012Baha: I would have to agree with you. The first set went out to sea, the second set went to Mexico, and now they are settling into a modification of both.
The unsettling factor is that the models have been pretty good even 5 days out the last two years.
The better factor is 300 miles plus/minus makes a huge difference!
3363. gugi182
2:31 PM GMT on August 20, 2012