About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:20 AM GMT on August 25, 2012
Throughout hurricane history, numerous tropical storms and hurricanes have battered themselves against Hispaniola and Cuba. Some have been destroyed; others have survived and gone on to wreak additional havoc. Cuba's most formidable barrier to hurricanes is the one Isaac will be running into--the eastern portion of the island, where mountains up to 6,000 feet high rear up out of the sea. I present here a history of five storms that crossed portions of both Hispaniola and Cuba, similar to Isaac's track. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba, and one went on to become the deadliest disaster in American history--the Great Galveston Hurricane.
Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. This storm was so unpredictable, I nicknamed it "The Joker." Fay got disrupted by passage over Haiti and Eastern Cuba, then slowly intensified to a 50 mph tropical storm as it tracked just south of Cuba. After crossing Central Cuba, Fay intensified from 50 mph to 65 mph in 36 hours over the Florida Straits, before making landfall in southwest Florida. Fay actually strengthened another 5 mph to a 70 mph tropical storm while its center was over land near the western end of Lake Okeechobee.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Fay approaching Florida. Satellite: Aqua at 6:50 PM GMT on August 18, 2008
Hurricane Ernesto of 2006. Ernesto was a hurricane for the briefest of time, just six hours, before it encountered the rugged mountains on the southwest Peninsula of Haiti and Eastern Cuba, which weakened it to a 40 mph tropical storm. After popping off the north coast of Cuba, Ernest had 24 hours over the warm waters of the Florida Straits before making landfall on the southern tip of Florida, but Ernesto was only able to strengthen by 5 mph to 45 mph.
Figure 2. Hurricane Ernesto (05L) over Hispaniola. Satellite: Terra at 3:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
Hurricane Georges of 1998. This nasty Cape Verde hurricane cut a swath of destruction across the Caribbean and in the U.S., killing 602 people, mostly in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Passage over Hispaniola weakened Georges from a Category 3 storm to a Category 1, and Georges was able to maintain Category 1 status for over a day while traversing the eastern half of Cuba. After the center popped off the coast, Georges had 18 hours over water before it hit Key West, and the hurricane intensified from 85 mph winds to 105 mph winds during that time.
Figure 3. Inside the eye of Hurricane Georges, as seen from a NOAA WP-3D research aircraft on 19 September 1998.
Hurricane Two of 1928. This storm became a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds before reaching Haiti, the got disrupted by close passage to Haiti's southwest peninsula, and Eastern Cuba. After the storm crossed Cuba, it strengthened from 60 mph to 70 mph in the Florida Straits, before close passage by the landmass of South Florida weakened it back to a 60 mph tropical storm again. It eventually made landfall in the panhandle of Florida as a 45 mph tropical storm.
Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. This deadliest hurricane in American history killed an estimated 8,000 - 12,000 people in Galveston, Texas when it hit as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on September 8, 1900. On its way to Galveston, the storm crossed both Hispaniola and the greater part of the length of Cuba as a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. When the storm popped out into the Florida Straits, it intensified from a minimum strength 40 mph tropical storm to a 145 mph Category 4 monster in two-and-a-half days. There's a very good chance the hurricane passed over a warm core Gulf eddy on its way to Galveston, allowing explosive deepening to occur. That situation does not exist in the Gulf at present for Isaac.
Figure 4. Aftermath of the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 on Galveston Island.
I'll have a new post Saturday between 11 am - 1 pm.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Reader Comments
Category 6™
2843. SSideBrac
3:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Yes - I fear that Haiti has far worse to come for perhaps another 24 hours
2842. FloridaShore
3:06 PM GMT on August 25, 2012If you've ever been in the swamps of Florida, or in the bigger rivers where they're wide, slow, and shallow, you'll quickly realize that it can be hotter than the Gulf or ocean SSTs, and full of humidity. Making "landfall" along certain stretches of the Florida coast is a misnomer, as there is as much or more convection energy on "land" as it was seeing over the water. Please don't be too surprised that it did that.
2841. lobdelse81
2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 20122840. cirrocumulus
2:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
2839. etxwx
2:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Interaction may strengthen typhoons
China Daily 08-25-2012 The interaction between the severe typhoons Tembin and Bolaven, known as the Fujiwhara effect, will bring torrential rains, strong gusts of wind and rough seawater to the southeastern parts of China, a senior weather forecaster said. "The twin typhoons are likely to rotate around each other if they get close (about 1,500 kilometers), bringing strengthened power," Qian Chuanhai, a typhoon expert at the China Meteorological Administration, told China Daily on Friday.
Story continues here.
2838. cirrocumulus
2:48 PM GMT on August 25, 20122837. fredric1979
2:44 PM GMT on August 25, 20122836. weatherbro
2:42 PM GMT on August 25, 20122835. CaneHunter031472
2:42 PM GMT on August 25, 2012I'm in Pascagoula MS. I feel much better now that we are close to be out of the cone. I think that we will see advisories issued soon but I don't think they will be issued for MS. Mobile to Panama Beach is a different story tho. I will keep you guys in my prayers. I think this is almost settled and anywhere between Pcola and Panama beach will be directly hit, so better to be prepared.
2834. Vlad959810
2:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2012This is not 97L, is the one well behind it
2833. SLU
2:37 PM GMT on August 25, 201225/1145 UTC 19.9N 73.6W T3.0/3.0 ISAAC -- Atlantic
2832. 12george1
2:36 PM GMT on August 25, 20122831. StormJunkie
2:34 PM GMT on August 25, 2012The LLC is just off the coast between Cajobabo and Rio Seco. The mid-level circulation is slightly to the NW of that. Not perfectly stacked. Now go look at the mountains in that area.
Again, the way it looks now was to be expected, and no it would not take a lot for him to recover if/when he gets off the Cuban Coast and in to the Atl/Straits. But right now he is limping along and just trying to hold it all together.
2830. tennisgirl08
2:33 PM GMT on August 25, 2012I don't think he is going to make it as far west as Mobile. I say a Panama City landfall is more likely.
I would wait to buy your supplies until Monday.
Mobile could be on the West side of the storm which would mean less serious effects. No need to freak out just yet ;)
2829. MrMixon
2:32 PM GMT on August 25, 20122828. AAPLTrader
2:32 PM GMT on August 25, 2012If anyone can post it--thx.
2827. mynameispaul
2:31 PM GMT on August 25, 20122826. cat6band
2:30 PM GMT on August 25, 20122825. WhoDat42
2:30 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble, yeah
Wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble, yeah
Get in there, yeah, yeah
Get in there, yeah, yeah
2824. yonzabam
2:29 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Good spot. It's now through the channel. It would now have to start moving due west to be over Cuba.
2823. tennisgirl08
2:29 PM GMT on August 25, 2012True. But just as many storms were TDs over the passage over the islands and eventually bombed out in the GOMEX. He is not going to look good right now due to dry air and land interaction.
But...this will not be a busted forecast. I think a strong TS or weak Cat 1 will hit S. FL and Keys.
I think the northern GOMEX has the most to worry about
2822. Elena85Vet
2:29 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Because an ARSR4 was designed for the FAA to primarily be a long range/high altitude Air Route Surveillance Radar
It has weather capabilities, but they are very limited in comparison to a dopplar.
2821. watercayman
2:28 PM GMT on August 25, 20122820. MiamiHurricanes09
2:27 PM GMT on August 25, 20122819. STXHurricanes2012
2:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Truly all u guys are crazy lol!
2818. ALlisa
2:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2012I would say I love your user name but not :-) ...very young during frederic but still remember so much about that hurricane (before, during and after). So much has changed since then but not ready for that. I am in West Mobile off Dawes and I can ONLY imagine Wal-Mart today! I guess I will venture that way soon :-(. Reality is setting in that I need to prepare.
2817. SELAliveforthetropic
2:26 PM GMT on August 25, 20122816. drg0dOwnCountry
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012And that changes a lot
Changing Jet Streams May Alter Paths of Storms and Hurricanes
2815. pottery
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012... and by the time it is fully over the warm water again, it will have rotated all that heavy convection to the east and south of it, into it's central part.
2814. QMiami
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012pretty annoying press conference. news station keep cuttting out because the mayor keeps flipping back and forth between english/spanish. Never saw a conference like that usually they do one english and then again in spanish.
2813. tennisgirl08
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012He was never expected to become a Hurricane until he gets north of Cuba. I think his center is going to pass over the Eastern tip of Cuba which has some mountains. He will struggle over next day or so.
BUT...
His true colors will show near the FL straits and especially the GOMEX.
2812. GTcooliebai
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 20122811. Bluestorm5
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 20122810. Dakster
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012SFWMD just said now Hurricane Isaac?
2809. ILwthrfan
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012No, but it is why the NHC is being EXTREMELY conservative with a CAT 1 cane instead of a CAT 4. Look at the history analogs of the storms that passed through here. 2 out of the 5 became hurricanes with the others being less. These islands are a tall task for a tropical system to overcome.
2808. barotropic
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Thats for sure. Likely multiple vortex's especially in this scenario. No question one just went in over east cuba, but as I posted seems that the dominant circulation may be still going NW.
2807. flcanes
2:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2012it'll probably be back over water soon
2806. washingtonian115
2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 20122805. waterskiman
2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Lot of people driving out, Not many people at the stores, either they don't know a storm is comming or have their stuff already. Price of fuel jumped 8 cents over night
2804. flcanes
2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012this is going to be very bad
2803. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 20122802. Tazmanian
2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012yep
the center is not moveing inaland it may have all ready move back in too open water
2801. RTSplayer
2:23 PM GMT on August 25, 2012and
and
and
2800. 94vortech
2:23 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Not true...they just haven't taken off yet.
2799. Carnoustie
2:23 PM GMT on August 25, 2012over open water moving nw.
2798. nola70119
2:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2012No, they were East at 2am, but west this morning....
2797. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:22 PM GMT on August 25, 20122796. hurricanejunky
2:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Tryin' To Reason With Hurricane Season
2795. StormJunkie
2:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2012Actually, I would argue that that says the circulation is a little decoupled. The LLC is to the SW of that band right on the coast of Cuba. That is about an hour old and is an excellent representation of what is going on with the storm right now. Couple that with visible loops and it is evident that Isaac is struggling right now. But that was to be expected.
2794. MAweatherboy1
2:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2012This morning's recon reported 998mb, that's what they used at 8AM, and that was up substantially from earlier... They'll probably keep 998mb at 11 with no evidence to support otherwise, and I think they'll use 50mph as the intensity.
2793. wpb
2:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2012